Given its handling of the Opposition, Jubilee ‘had it coming’ with Saba Saba

While the Saba Saba rally on Monday has been presented as a necessary response to the shortcomings that have been evident in the manner that Jubilee has conducted the affairs of state in the last one year, there is also a sense that the rallies are an attempt by the Opposition to claim some respect.

This is against a relentless series of petty indignities that the new leadership and its allies have visited on their political opponents since coming to power.

The first of these took place at the Supreme Court presidential petitions where, in submissions before the court, the chair of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Issack Hassan referred to Raila Odinga, as “narcissistic”, “good in making other scapegoats for his failures and electoral defeats” and a “man used to ruin others as a sacrifice for his failures and ambitions”.

Coming from the chair of the IEBC, traditionally a neutral body, the arrogance of the chairman, and the protection that the court gave him as he made such astounding claims, was seen as the establishment using every available opportunity to dance on the graves of their vanquished adversaries.

Under the former constitution, Mr Odinga, adjudged to have lost in the elections, would have become the Leader of the Opposition and would have had a formal place in national politics, possibly a seat in Parliament with an army of professional and personal staff, who would minister to the needs of his official role.

PUBLIC ACCOUNTS COMMITTEE

He would also have had a formal place in the pecking order of the National Assembly, including as chair of the Public Accounts Committee, a team that both Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr Mwai Kibaki chaired when they were in that position.

The 2010 Constitution, however, has no safety nets for the Opposition leadership and the losing presidential candidate has no guarantees of political significance after the elections.

There is a sense in which the Cord leadership has been struggling for political significance ever since the last elections, amid a determined put-down by Jubilee. Because of their positions as former Prime Minister and Vice-President, respectively, Mr Odinga and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka have, in particular, had an unusually difficult task of transitioning from the high offices they held in the former government and trying to create new roles for themselves in an unchartered political order.

Specifically, Mr Odinga struggled with whether he should remain in the statesman mould that his position as PM had placed him in, and from where he would lead the easy life of presiding over launches and meetings visiting foreign dignitaries. It is a role that would also have kept him out of collision with the Jubilee leadership.

The last one year, when Mr Odinga tried the statesman approach also coincided with the view that the Opposition was moribund, and leaderless.

Jubilee did not make it easy for Mr Odinga to play the statesman role either. They have put him through grief over his demands for a pension, requiring that he must first retire from politics if he is to earn one.

There was also a fight over the right to retain his personal security, much of which was withdrawn, and at some point the former head of the Public Service Francis Kimemia issued instructions that Mr Odinga should be subjected to petty personal indignities if he should try to use the presidential lounge at national airports.  

By contrast, Jubilee has continued to fete retired presidents Kibaki and Daniel Moi, with the former getting a new private residence and office at state expense and very generous post-retirement arrangements. 

It is not just Mr Odinga personally that has been the subject of Jubilee’s mean approach, but also Kenya’s allies in the West whose friendship is partly attributable to his efforts.

Among all of Kenya’s friends, the worst treatment was reserved for the former UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan. Mr Annan expertly mediated the crisis that arose from the 2007/2008 post-election violence, and remained in touch with the country through the last five years. All this changed when Jubilee took power.

During his last visit to Kenya, towards the end of the Kibaki era, the former president snubbed Mr Annan, amid claims by Mr Kenyatta’s TNA that Mr Annan should also have met with their side since he was meeting Mr Odinga, their main rival in the impending elections.

The argument that the meeting with Mr Odinga was in his capacity as PM, not as a presidential candidate, was ignored. Political operatives on the Kibaki side then issued a statement that Mr Annan’s role had ended four years before, that he had overstayed his welcome.

The agenda around the long-term issues, regarded as the drivers of the post-election violence, with which Mr Kibaki, Mr Odinga and Mr Annan were all associated, came to a sudden end when Jubilee came to power.

MEDIATOR

It is known that when Jubilee took over, Mr Annan struggled for an entry point that might allow him to bring a dignified closure to his role as the Kenyan mediator.

From the high position of mediator and national hero, Mr Annan is no longer welcome in Kenya, and was referred to as a “tourist”, and this is only because he is seen as Mr Odinga’s friend.

It seems that the three-month sojourn in the US from March to the end of May this year convinced Mr Odinga to disembark the high horse and go back to the trenches, the role that created his political career in the first place.

Unlike the statesman role, there are no guarantees in the trenches and the first risk would have been that the attempt to assert new leadership would not find followers, which would then consign him to irrelevance.

Given the crowds that the Opposition is attracting, it is safe to conclude that the risk of irrelevance has been overcome, and that there is a felt need that they are currently addressing.

The new responsibility, however, is whether Mr Odinga and the Opposition will be able to use the massive support that they command for the national good, or if they will use it to divide the country in the same way that Jubilee has used its own support. It is partly not their responsibility since the country has an elected leadership which they feel they are not part of.

Successful advocacy around an issue requires passion, evidence and resources. The Opposition has demonstrated plenty of passion in its actions. Some of the evidence, such as the extent of Jubilee’s exclusive practices in filling public jobs, is already public. 

However, some of it still needs to be marshalled, including what exactly happened in the last General Election. By refusing to go along, it seems that Jubilee hopes that it will keep away the evidence, and, therefore, portray the Opposition as acting on baseless zeal.

Being a Sunday, when a majority of the religious people of Kenya worship, it is appropriate to cite St John in the Holy Bible: “You shall know the Truth and the Truth Shall set you free.” As presented by the Opposition, the Saba Saba agenda is that we need to speak together, and derive a shared truth, and future.