Focus on ethnic bloc votes amid hooliganism in County Hall race

They have been dubbed as ‘Mombasa’s Big Four’.

Every day, each one of them appears to be tightening the grip on his respective voting bloc as the General Election on August 8 approaches.

Governor Hassan Joho of ODM and his challengers — Jubilee Party candidate Suleiman Shahbal, Wiper secretary-general Hassan Omar and Nyali MP Hezron Awiti (Vibrant Democratic Party) — are battling it out for the governorship seat.

BILLBOARDS
As the race gets hotter, all indications are that the battle will be close, even though analysts see the incumbent as the frontrunner.

Over the past two weeks, Mr Joho’s opponents have accused him of taking up all the space to erect campaign billboards in the Indian Ocean coastal resort city.

Mr Awiti attempted to erect his at the Buxton junction without the county government’s approval and askaris promptly pulled it down.

VIOLATION
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has since ordered the governor to allow his opponents to erect their campaign billboards.

IEBC issued a stern warning that should the others not be allowed access to advertising space, Mr Joho would be held personally liable.

County Returning Officer Nancy Kariuki warned Governor Joho that he would be referred to the IEBC’s Code of Conduct enforcement committee if the scenario continued.

“This is a violation of the Electoral Code of Conduct, which the governor signed and committed to abide by,” Ms Kariuki warned.

ADVERTISE
But through his lawyer Dennis Mosota, Mr Joho denied any wrongdoing.

He said outdoor advertising space in Mombasa was leased by two firms — Magnate Ventures Ltd and Adsite Ltd — who have exclusive rights on it.

“The governor has absolutely nothing to do with this as it is leased to private companies with directors, of which the governor is not among them,” Mr Mosota said.

JUBILEE MOLES
In fact, the governor said he was willing to cede all the space with his 21 billboards to his rivals “and still beat them hands-down”.

The war of words and allegations of hooliganism have also pitted Mr Joho and Senator Omar.

Mr Joho has claimed at public rallies that some candidates affiliated to the National Super Alliance (Nasa) were “Jubilee moles” and were campaigning for the President Uhuru Kenyatta-led party.

ATTACK
Wiper is a Nasa affiliate and its leader Kalonzo Musyoka is the ODM chief Raila Odinga’s running mate.

Interestingly, last week, just a day after the allegation, an armed gang staged a morning raid on Mr Omar’s campaign secretariat and the senator promptly blamed Mr Joho’s relatives.

He did not however produce evidence to support his claim.

EXPLOSIVES
Earlier, police said, prior to the attack, a driver on Mr Joho’s team had reported having been assaulted by people believed to be supporters of Mr Omar.

The gang damaged the windscreen and two headlights of a 24-wheeler lorry the senator uses in campaign roadshows.

It also hurled explosives into Renaissance Centre, his operation base.

Mr Omar said the thugs stormed the premises and chased away a volunteer then smashed the truck’s front windscreen and throwing into the lorry petrol bombs that, however, did not explode.

HOOLIGANISM
The senator said he suspected that a relative of Mr Joho’s could be behind the act, which he termed as “extreme hooliganism”.

Said Senator Omar: “This is extreme hooliganism and attempts at intimidating opponents. I already have one suspect.

"These fellows are out to intimidate anyone who stands in their way. They are alpha hooligans and know no borders and no law.”

INVESTIGATION

The governor’s director of communications, Mr Richard Chacha, however denied Mr Omar’s claims and asked him to await investigations.

“Our driver was attacked in broad daylight,” Mr Chacha said as he accused Mr Omar of using the governor’s name to promote himself.

“Although we suspected he was attacked by Wiper supporters, we were not quick to drag the senator’s name into the attack.”

PROPAGANDA
He added: “He knows the only way to attract media attention is to invoke the governor’s name into his troubles.

"The governor’s relatives have better things to do than engage with a novice calling himself a competitor. He has never been our competitor.”

Mr Chacha claimed that the senator was using propaganda as a tactic to divert attention from his “newfound wealth ... and those he is now working with to split the vote in Mombasa”.

DEMOCRACY
Meanwhile, Mombasa County Police Commander Lucas Oigara said investigations had been launched into the attempted petrol-bomb attack.

Mr Omar, whom observers believed was the target of the “Jubilee mole” tag, has since dismissed the allegations as a creation of Mr Joho’s.

“Governor Joho is creating the ‘Jubilee mole’ claim to cover up for his shortfalls,” he said.

“He is using Nasa presidential candidate Raila Odinga’s name for personal gain. Let him know that when he was clearing cars from the port, some of us were fighting for democracy.”

CAMPAIGNS
Candidates are concentrating on door-to-door visits as they put final touches to their manifestos or mobilise funds.

In the Jubilee camp, simmering differences in the ticket seem to have been resolved following a “ceasefire”.

“We have resolved our differences and I was selected to lead the campaigns,” Mr Anania Mwaboza, Mr Shahbal’s running mate, said.

EXPERIENCE
A political analyst from the Technical University of Mombasa (TUM), Mr Philip Mbaji, sees the battle for Town Hall as between ODM and Jubilee.

“Wiper’s Omar is a great articulator of issues but he is more technocratic,” Mr Mbaji said.

“Unfortunately, technocrats do not vote a lot. He caused a major upset by beating the likes of Mr Najib Balala and Mr Ramadhan Seif Kajembe to the Senate in 2013 but that was more of a legislative position.

“For Governor, one deals with managerial issues of resources and so on. Mr Omar has not been tested on this but the incumbent has.”

POPULARITY
Mr Mbaji however believes Mr Joho and Mr Shahbal “are capable of putting up high-profile multi-million-shilling campaigns” to which Mr Omar might be no match.

However, Pwani University lecturer Hassan Mwakimako argues that Mr Joho’s unrivalled popularity at the Coast and in the country, despite his “lacklustre” performance, is due to his constant public spats with President Kenyatta and DP William Ruto.

“The incumbent has become popular, not based on a sterling performance track record but constant verbal wars with the President and his deputy,” Prof Mwakimako said.

“The way Jubilee has mistreated Mr Joho has given him political mileage and earned him sympathy admiration.”

READ: Joho blocked from Madaraka Express launch

MIJIKENDA
Mr Joho is now seen by many as the Coast’s liberator as he also articulates the local issues better, said the don, adding that he has tried to show that, under Jubilee, the region has been marginalised and needs change.

The choice of Mijikenda running mates will also have a bearing on how much votes a candidate will garner.

Mr Joho has Dr William Kingi as his preferred deputy while Mr Shahbal chose Mr Mwaboza, Mr Awiti chose banker Hassan Mwamtoa and Mr Omar, a hotelier, Ms Linda Mariwa Shuma.

MARGINALISATION

Pwani University’s Prof Halim Shauri however sees the scenario as a tragic socio-historical occurrence.

“The choice by all four candidates of running mates from the Mijikenda community is a clear indication that the community has the numbers,” Prof Shauri said.

“But the irony is none of the candidates is a Mijikenda. Why?

“This sends a strong message of the systematic marginalisation and historical injustices to the community that led them to lose self-esteem, confidence and identity.

"Now they have been eclipsed, are secondary and almost contented to play second fiddle to others in their own home.”

TECHNOCRAT
He added: “It’s upon them to sit down, consult and consolidate their numbers and reverse the trend.”

Prof Shauri said the choice has made the Mombasa race complex, leaving no front-runner but a situation of “a tricky arithmetic” that throws it open.

University of Nairobi political science don Geofreyson Khamala says, despite integrity issues, Mr Joho remains the front-runner, with Mr Omar a close second.

But he gives fewer chances to Mr Shahbal in a strong, steadfast opposition zone.    

“The choice of technocrat running mates is a good thing because we expect to see a management of affairs by whoever wins,” Mr Khamala said, adding that the preferred deputies, most of whom are new to politics, might not play a significant role in pulling votes for the candidates.

MASTERY
Mr Mbaji also said the upcountry voting bloc will affect the result — unlike in the past, when voters used to travel back home to vote.

“I believe the Kamba community will vote mainly for the Wiper candidate, Mr Omar, but the votes will be distributed to all the candidates, depending on the party of allegiance,” Mr Mbaji said, adding that Mr Shahbal owes most of his votes to Mr Mwaboza.

In a previous interview, Kenya School of Law don Morris Mbondenyi said Mr Joho was the man to beat, citing his political theatrics, “mastery of political schemes” and bravery.

“Mombasa County is home to populist politics, not development-based,” Prof Mbondenyi said.

“Joho has mastered this and taken advantage of it.

ISSUES

“He usually whips the emotions of the crowds and tells them what they want to hear.

"His politics has nothing to do with building roads, provision of water, security, jobs or anything like that.

"This is because the common voter is ignorant and believes in handouts; he values who gives what now.”

DEVELOPMENT

Prof Frank Matanga, a political science lecturer at Masinde Muliro University, however says the governor has a development record to boot.

“His development record will boost him and, like all incumbent leaders in Africa, Joho has a headstart in the race,” the don said, adding that Mr Joho has “unmatched bravery”. 

SPLIT
He sees a three-horse race, though, and even cautions that Joho will not win “easily sitting down”.

Pwani University professor of linguistics Rocha Chimerah says Mr Joho’s chances have been bolstered by the split in Wiper, an absence of which would have provided a formidable challenge to him.

“If Senator Hassan Omar and Mr Hezron Awiti had stuck together as a joint candidature, the force would have been one to reckon with,” Prof Chimerah said.

“But they blew up the chance by going separate ways.”