Which way Wetang’ula as resurgent Mudavadi sends strong Cord signal?

The latest political realignments have placed Ford Kenya party leader Moses Wetang’ula in a precarious position.

Indeed, the Senate Minority Leader would have done well listening to the famous lines of British war-time Prime Minister Winston Churchill: “A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year and the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen.”

However, the unfolding scenario within the opposition and in his Western Kenya backyard is increasingly becoming dynamic and dicey for Mr Wetang’ula to aptly foretell. And the one man responsible for beclouding the Cord co-principal’s fortunes is Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi.

The former Deputy Prime Minister has not only teamed up with Cord, whose other principals are Raila Odinga (ODM) and Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) under a new formation of the National Super Alliance (Nasa), but was last week installed as spokesman of the populous Luhya community in controversial circumstances. 

Mr Wetang’ula, who is also the Bungoma senator, has dismissed the installation of the ANC leader as inconsequential.   

Mr Wetang’ula’s political space has further been crowded by the rival Jubilee Party, through President Uhuru Kenyatta’s sustained charm offensive in Bungoma County, and largely among the Bukusu Luhya sub-tribe. Over the last two weeks alone, the President has nominated two unlikely individuals from Wetang’ula’s sub-tribe to key positions.

Last month, the former head of the Anglican Church of Kenya, Archbishop Eliud Wabukala, was nominated chairman of the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission before Mr Wafula Chebukati was controversially proposed to chair the reconstituted Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.

Even though the two applied for the jobs and were interviewed based on their qualifications with parliamentary approval pending, some observers are pointing to political considerations.

CREATED DILEMMA

Mr Chebukati’s nomination has particularly created a dilemma on regional balance as he comes from the same community as the IEBC CEO Ezra Chiloba. Deputy President William Ruto and the Leader of the Majority in the National Assembly Aden Duale have come out strongly to defend Mr Chebukati and dismissed questions on ethnic balance even before he appears before MPs for vetting.   

Ford-Kenya’s deputy party leader Dr Boni Khalwale describes the President’s appointments as neither an expression of love for members of the Luhya community nor genuine inclusion in his government but rather “a desperate move to hoodwink our people into voting for him”.

According to the Kakamega senator, Jubilee strategists hope to achieve two things with the latest move – split the populous Luhya vote and garner at least 25 per cent of the presidential vote, particularly in Bungoma County. 

Of the three Cord co-principals, Mr Wetang’ula’s base is relatively less politically cohesive compared to Mr Odinga’s or Mr Musyoka’s in a landscape where leaders usually come to the negotiating table with intact voting blocs.

By isolating the Bungoma senator and intensifying campaigns in his backyard, the Jubilee strategists may well be trying to give meaning to the Kiswahili adage “kamba hukatikia pembamba (a rope snaps where it is thinnest)”.

The entry of Mr Mudavadi into the opposition corner further complicates Mr Wetang’ula’s chances of clinching the Cord presidential ticket.

Even before Mr Mudavadi’s installation as Luhya spokesman last weekend, there were unconfirmed reports to the effect that Mr Wetang’ula had abandoned his presidential ambition and instead opted to seek the Bungoma governor’s seat.

Reacting to the development last month, Ford Kenya Secretary-General Dr Eseli Simiyu attributed the rumours to “Jubilee elements”. And Mr Wetang’ula himself maintained he was firmly in the presidential race: “For the avoidance of doubt, may I state categorically that I, Moses Masika Wetang’ula, remains focused on running for the presidency of this country.”

PERSONAL POLITICAL INTERESTS

Dr Khalwale regrets the issue of the Luhya spokesman saying it is purely divisive. He says the issue is being hyped by individuals out to advance their personal political interests: “Tribal spokespeople emerge, they are not installed and ours (Luhya) will similarly emerge – a strong one who can capture the imagination of the nation.”

Separately, the Nation has established that opinion is sharply divided within the opposition over last Saturday’s move by Central Organisation of Trade Unions (Cotu) Secretary-General Francis Atwoli to crown Mr Mudavadi as Luhya spokesman. The occasion was preceded by a flurry of meetings involving the Cord principals in what is viewed as efforts to prevent a possible fallout.

While some view Mr Mudavadi as the bigger catch who, besides boasting a national clout, enjoys huge influence in the Western region, insiders confided in the Sunday Nation that they could not let go Mr Wetang’ula, who is considered a loyal team player.

The decision to stick by Mr Wetang’ula is also persuaded by the need to secure the support of the Bukusu – the largest Luhya sub-tribe – who largely occupy Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties.      

“And lest you forget, Wetang’ula is the only Cord co-principal who was elected and he has demonstrated excellent leadership to our parliamentary teams in the Senate and National Assembly. If you witnessed yesterday’s (Thursday) debate on the electoral laws that stretched into the night, then you understand what I am talking about. One does not willingly lose such a valuable team player,” confided an official of one of the Cord affiliate parties.    

Nonetheless, the apparent teaming up of Mr Mudavadi and other players — including Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto with the possibility of Baringo Senator Gideon Moi and key Kanu figures — in a new opposition formation, is likely to put more pressure on Mr Wetang’ula and his supporters.

But Dr Khalwale says they have advised their party leader not to lose focus and keep his eyes on the big prize. Either way, Mr Wetang’ula remains in a wait-and-see scenario. What, for instance, becomes of him if he fails to clinch the presidential ticket? Will he make an about-turn and opt for a gubernatorial seat? And is it not prudent to kick-start the campaigns early instead of waiting for a last- minute decision?

FLY OPPOSITION TICKET

Fully aware of the reality that only two principals can fly the opposition ticket, the Sunday Nation has established that the opposition has been having discussions on several scenarios. According to Dr Khalwale, among the options being floated, but yet to be agreed upon, is that the principals who miss out on the ticket be accorded a percentage share of the government in terms of appointments.

Other options include appointment into senior Cabinet positions or to spearhead national campaigns. There have also been suggestions of reviving the prime minister’s position.

While the spokesman issue has ignited a heated debate in western Kenya, other players in the wider Cord family want everybody on board: “For us, it is not a question of either Mr Wetang’ula or Mr Mudavadi, but we want both of them in the opposition outfit. This is the surest way of strengthening and sharpening our campaign,” said Funyula MP Paul Otuoma.

Nonetheless, this may prove a tall order if history is anything to go by. For decades, members of the two largest Luhya sub-tribes – the Bukusu and Maragoli – have voted separately. The other sub-tribes have cast their votes in one basket depending on persuasions of the moment. This has been the case since 1992, when the Bukusu supported the candidature of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, as the Maragoli stuck with President Daniel Moi.

In 1997, the Maragoli again stuck with Kanu and shunned Michael Kijana Wamalwa who also contested the presidency.

Come 2002 and the equation changed, with both the two sub-tribes rallying behind Narc presidential candidate Mwai Kibaki despite Mr Mudavadi being the running mate of Kanu’s presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta.

The Narc wave was so strong that even Mr Mudavadi lost his own Sabatia parliamentary seat to Moses Akaranga.

The scenario repeated itself in 2007 when the two sub-groups again came together to support ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga against President Kibaki with Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Musikari Kombo throwing their weight behind the latter.

The ODM wave was so immense that Mr Kombo and other Party of National Unity stalwarts in the region were swept aside, with Mr Wetang’ula narrowly surviving.

This time round, operatives within Cord and Nasa are hoping to end these historical differences by uniting the political camps of Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Mudavadi. Both leaders may have expressed willingness to work together, but sceptics think otherwise.