Nasa withdrawal from poll masks internal woes: Analysts

Brian Murithi goes through a voters’ list at Mosque Hall Road polling centre, Municipality ward, in Meru town on October 19, 2017. PHOTO | PHOEBE OKALL | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Nasa is yet to have any meaningful campaign programme since the Supreme Court ordered fresh presidential elections on September 1.

  • Makueni Senator Mutula Kilonzo on Thursday admitted that failure to campaign has dented Nasa’s support in some areas where it enjoyed popularity.

  • President Kenyatta swept northern Kenya, upstaging Mr Odinga in Garissa, Isiolo and Wajir, while retaining Mandera County.

Even as the push and pull over next week’s repeat poll intensifies, politicians and analysts were yesterday mulling over the state of Kenya’s politics and how the two main political formations contributed to the crisis.

National Super Alliance’s Raila Odinga on October 10 withdrew from the race, accusing the electoral agency of failing to address the concerns he has raised as a condition for his participating in the repeat poll.

Mr Odinga’s withdrawal, the resignation of IEBC commissioner Roselyn Akombe and the statement by IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati that he couldn’t assure of a credible election, have cast a shadow on the election, just a week away.

But even as Mr Odinga dug in over the reforms in IEBC, analysts the Nation spoke to appeared to suggest that the demands masked deeper troubles within the opposition coalition.

Nasa is yet to have any meaningful campaign programme since the Supreme Court ordered fresh presidential elections on September 1, while President Kenyatta has been on the roll, addressing up to five rallies a day in various parts of the country.

DEFECTIONS

The opposition coalition has also, in the wake of the historic ruling, been hit by defections of key candidates who lost on August 8, denying it the much needed generals on the campaign trail and handing Jubilee Party a foothold in the so-called Nasa strongholds of Western, Kisii and Maasailand.

Makueni Senator Mutula Kilonzo on Thursday admitted that failure to campaign has dented Nasa’s support in some areas where it enjoyed popularity.

“Our support is not the same as it was before August 8 because some of our supporters are weary because of the long-drawn-out campaigns,” he said, even as he insisted Nasa retains a strong presence in Ukambani.

The region has, however, has not come out strongly in the anti-IEBC protests.

JOINED JUBILEE

Nasa’s woes have been worsened by the fact that Jubilee Party has raided its strongholds and lured some of its strongest defenders to its side.

They include former governors David Nkedienye (Kajiado) and Moses Akaranga (Vihiga) as well as governor candidates Paul Otuoma (Busia), Musuni ole Tiampati and Patrick ole Ntutu both of Narok.

Former Wiper party Secretary-General Omar Hassan and former Vihiga MP Yusuf Chanzu are some of the leading lights in their regions who have joined the Jubilee bandwagon.

Jubilee Party also won critical seats in some Nasa strongholds such as Western which provided a perfect launch pad for its campaigns.

Save for Makueni County, Jubilee also put up a good show in Ukambani, the home turf of Nasa presidential running mate Kalonzo Musyoka, winning two National Assembly seats in Kitui and one in Machakos County.

STRONGHOLD

In Maasailand, President Kenyatta won Narok with 149,376 votes against Mr Odinga’s 129,360 and retained the neighbouring Kajiado (186,481 against Mr Odinga’s 138,405).

In Gusiiland, he surprisingly surged past Mr Odinga in Nyamira, getting 106,508 votes against Mr Odinga’s 95, 277, in a county where he had only 54,071 of the votes in 2013.

The gamble by Nasa to field several candidates from affiliate parties in battlegrounds and perceived stronghold counties also hit them hard with the coalition failing to win a single parliamentary seat in Kisii County, hurting its numbers in Parliament.

President Kenyatta swept northern Kenya, upstaging Mr Odinga in Garissa, Isiolo and Wajir, while retaining Mandera County.

In the region, President Kenyatta maximised the Leader of Majority Aden Duale’s position, while carefully navigating clan politics by allowing politicians there to form their own parties but agreeing to back him for the top job, a masterstroke that paid off in the vast region with about 500,000 votes.

“President Kenyatta’s win was a cumulative effort, especially in northern Kenya and Maasailand. One of development playing a large part, and that of us being inclusive in the government affairs,” said Jubilee secretary-general Raphael Tuju.

MANIFESTO

Senate Majority Leader Kipchumba Murkomen argued that it was all about Jubilee’s manifesto.

 Other analysts we spoke to, however, pointed to Jubilee’s unabashed exploitation of the state machinery which made it impossible for Nasa to raise funds abroad. The analysts argued that this is the reason for Nasa’s lacklustre campaigns and the unwillingness, or inability, to go back to the campaign trail.

“Realising that there is no level playing field on which they can fairly dislodge Jubilee from power, Nasa’s strategy seems to be to precipitate a crisis so as to get a foothold in government,” argued policy analyst Nyaga Kindiki.

Prof Kindiki, however, warned that the strategy was risky because “one can only go so far “without attracting isolation from the international community and even possible prosecution by the ICC.”

But political analyst Martin Andati argues that in the wake of the revelation by Mr Chebukati and Dr Akombe, the focus has turned to the commission and whether it is properly prepared to conduct the poll.