Nyanza, Coast lead in support for the referendum

Coast and Nyanza regions have the highest number of people who support the campaign to change the Constitution, a new opinion poll by Ipsos Synovate has shown.

Fifty five per cent of the respondents from the Coast and 57 per cent of those from Nyanza said they supported calls by leaders for a constitutional referendum on issues such as devolution.

Central Kenya has the lowest number of those who support the campaign, with only 13 per cent for it. Eighty per cent said they did not support the calls, while seven per cent did not respond.

Central was followed by North Eastern and Rift Valley where 30 and 31 per cent of respondents respectively said they supported the calls.

In North Eastern, 58 per cent said they did not support as did 61 per cent in Rift Valley.

Nationally, the majority of those surveyed — 54 per cent — said they did not support calls for the referendum. Forty two per cent of them said the referendum was expensive and the government did not have the money.

Another 27 per cent said the process had been politicised, while 18 per cent said the Constitution, which was passed in 2010 but came into force after last year’s election, was still young.

Others — 14 per cent — said the referendum would lead to disunity in the country, while 12 per cent said the changes could be done through Parliament and other means. Nine per cent said the referendum could be conducted together with the next General Election.

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Those who support the calls for the referendum — 38 per cent of the respondents — said they wanted the Constitution changed to ensure increased allocation of funds to counties (62 per cent).

Twenty nine per cent said they supported the calls because the Jubilee Government had failed to deliver on its election promises while 14 per cent said it was sabotaging or frustrating devolution. The others — six per cent — said they wanted some clauses, especially on land reform, changed.

On party distribution, most Cord supporters — 67 per cent — said they backed calls for the referendum. Only 26 per cent did not. Among Jubilee supporters, 77 per cent said they were not for plebiscite calls, while 17 per cent said they were in favour. In all, 2,021 people were interviewed for the survey.

ACROSS BOTH GENDERS

The study, which was conducted between August 24 and September 1, also showed consistent (majority) opposition to the referendum across both genders and age groups.

Although more people were interviewed in the rural areas (1,270) than those in the urban areas (751), a similar result was repeated with more than half of the residents in both areas opposing the referendum.

Regionally, Central had the highest number of people (80 per cent) opposing the referendum while Nyanza showed the greatest support at 75 per cent.

Coast region, where opposition leader Raila Odinga visited yesterday in his referendum campaign, also showed most support for the referendum.

Nairobi, Eastern, North Eastern, Rift Valley and Western regions were largely against the referendum.

The survey also examined responses across different religions, and education levels and the overall results were the same – a majority did not support calls for a referendum.