ODM poll gives Moses Kajwang’ a headstart

What you need to know:

  • This comes as the party mulls over the disciplinary action to take against Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, who has thrown his weight behind Maendeleo Party of Kenya’s Philip Okundi in the February 12 by-election.
  • The poll was conducted between January 15 and 17 when Mr Odinga was in the county to drum up support for ODM candidate Moses Kajwang’.
  • The results could have been influenced by Mr Odinga’s presence in the county when the survey was done, although the study said it could not determine by how much.

ODM is relying on the sway of its leader Raila Odinga to win the Homa Bay senatorial by-election by more than half of the votes to be cast, a party in-house poll shows.

The survey indicates that Mr Odinga’s endorsement matters a lot to voters who would participate in the by-election.

The poll was conducted between January 15 and 17 when Mr Odinga was in the county to drum up support for ODM candidate Moses Kajwang’.

“Day one of the survey coincided with the presence of Mr Odinga on the ground – a thing the interviewers had not anticipated. We are not able to determine the extent to which this influenced responses,” said the survey.

The results of the opinion poll conducted last week, were released on Sunday by the Orange party’s Director of Elections Junet Mohamed.

This comes as the party mulls over the disciplinary action to take against Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, who has thrown his weight behind Maendeleo Party of Kenya’s Philip Okundi in the February 12 by-election.

The pollsters praised the study, saying it had observed strict measures on data collection and analysis.

QUALITY CONTROL

“The data collection involved computer-assisted telephonic interview, interviewing of respondents using an open- ended and semi-structured questionnaire.

“Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied through back checks and accompaniments,” said the party.

A total of 1,536 people picked proportionately from all the eight constituencies in the county were interviewed.

The results could have been influenced by Mr Odinga’s presence in the county when the survey was done, although the study said it could not determine by how much.

Even as the survey roots for Mr Kajwang’, the party continues to face defiance from members, the latest being Dr Kidero who has publicly declared support for Mr Okundi. Karachuonyo MP James Rege has been leading a group campaigning against Mr Kajwang’.

This has prompted some party members, among them National Executive Council officials, to call for unspecified measures to be taken against the governor.

However, ODM Secretary-General Ababu Namwamba dismissed claims that the governor breached the Political Parties Act, saying Dr Kidero has not issued an official statement on his support for Mr Okundi.

Mr Namwamba said the party does not have anything official to instigate discipline against Mr Kidero.

“We are not aware of the position; the matter has neither been discussed at the party nor do we have a statement issued by the governor to that effect,” he said on the phone.

DIVIDING LUOS

But some MPs from Nyanza have warned such a move risks dividing the Luo community, claiming that Dr Kidero is only testing the waters to find out the support he commands in Nyanza .

Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma called for caution, arguing that the governor is making a mistake. He said showing disloyalty to the party that saw him elected to such a powerful post is regrettable. “He must have respect for the party, its leadership and the rule of law as defined in the Constitution and the Act,” he said.

Mr Kaluma said there is nothing new about the alleged endorsement, as the same has been the position of leaders allied to Dr Kidero.

“They are trading our unity as a people with Jubilee. They are the engine of Kalausi bought by Jubilee to portray Mr Odinga as having less MPs in Homa Bay County,” he said.

Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi and secretary for ODM Political Affairs said the matter of loyalty and party discipline is not negotiable regardless of the elective post one holds.

“The punishment may not be immediate. But when executed, we will neither look at what positions these errant leaders hold nor will we consider their contribution,” he said.

Dr Kidero and Mr Odinga have been embroiled in a supremacy battle that they have openly denied, but their actions tell otherwise.

At one point, the governor boycotted a meeting held in Homa Bay where the party asked rebels to leave.

Mr Odinga said: “You are either with us or with them. We will not accommodate people who will sell our party to the enemies of progress.”

Mr Kidero is part of a team against the younger Kajwang’s direct nomination to contest the senatorial seat.