Pressed to unveil flagbearer and tame Jubilee, Cord loads its guns

Cord is torn between managing the expectations of its supporters curious to know its presidential lineup and warding off similar pressure from Jubilee, less than a week after President Uhuru Kenyatta announced that parties coalescing around the ruling alliance had agreed to collapse into one outfit.

The supporters are increasingly frustrated by the slow pace it is taking the triumvirate of ODM leader Raila Odinga, Wiper counterpart Kalonzo Musyoka, and Senate Minority Leader Moses Wetang’ula (Ford-Kenya) to settle on who among them will fly the coalition’s flag in the next polls.

The pressure complicates matters for the trio, who would rather follow a strategy script that emphasises on delay in naming the candidate so as to keep the options open for those they target to bring on board, like Amani National leader Musalia Mudavadi, the Sunday Nation has learnt.

A Cord insider pointed out that revealing their lineup right now, assuming it exists, would be a potential turn-off for those they are targeting to forge a working formula with. They also want to keep their opponents guessing for as long as it takes, he said.

The roadmap issued by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) — sinking in the reality that the country is already in the election year — is further complicating the situation. Confidantes of the politicians are voicing their disappointment at the slow pace it is taking to deal with a potentially volatile process that could tear the coalition apart.

Those pushing for it from within want the process dispensed with early enough to give Cord time to address any likely fallout before the elections.

But to Mr Odinga, they would rather take the longest time to agree on who their candidate will be, rather than rush it over and hand Mr Kenyatta an easy ride to a second term in office.

“We are not in a hurry on this issue. We are one year to the elections. Last week, I came from NDC (National Democratic Convention party in the US) where they had just nominated Hillary (Ms Hillary Clinton) their candidate. That is when Bernie Sanders formally bowed down and handed his supporters over to Hillary.

“They did this three months to the elections, yet the US is almost a continent. So it’s not right to say we are late, that Jubilee has got a candidate and why don’t we have one as Cord. It is not so much about time but having the right combination.”

DOWNPLAY MOUNTING CALLS

Mr Musyoka, on the other hand, chose to downplay the mounting calls. “I believe in freedom of expression and thought. As such, people are free to say what they want about who becomes the Cord candidate, but for me the preoccupation is unity of Cord,” he said.

The Sunday Nation also learnt that a technical team mandated to look into the suitability of each of the principals and come up with the most popular formation to face Mr Kenyatta has submitted its findings.

It is still a guarded secret among the opposition luminaries, although we have a hint there is a clause in the report advising the three politicians to cast their nets wider so as to rope in those currently not in the equation but are willing to work with them.

Nominated Senator Elizabeth Ongoro (ODM) is one of those who belong to a school of thought that is fast gaining currency. It advocates that the three coalition leaders take a retreat — minus their handlers who may want to advance parochial interests — to hammer out a deal that would see them get to the next polls intact.

“We will accept whoever they settle on because to us unity is supreme,” she says.

Sorting out the torchbearer hurdle has many advantages and would give the coalition more latitude to address other emerging issues like sibling rivalry. The three parties in this case will, in some cases, compete against each other for other elective seats unless they agree on a zoning formula to curb “cannibalism”.

Interestingly, the trio feels that much of the push is coming from their opponents, who want to know those they will be facing off with in good time so as to device counter strategies as the clock ticks towards August 8 next year when the elections will be held.

Dr Eseli Simiyu, Senator Wetang’ula’s ally, admits that calls “to follow suit” increased significantly after the launch of the new Jubilee Party. On Tuesday, 12 parties supporting Mr Kenyatta’s second term bid agreed to fold up and form one party.

“The pressure to unveil the candidate early was caused by Jubilee. Since 2002, presidential candidates emerge at most six months to the elections,” he said.
However, many Cord supporters want to hit the campaign trail knowing who their captain and assistant are to counter Jubilee’s onslaught led by Mr Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto as running mate.

Dr Simiyu signalled that Cord would not budge on the matter. Observers will be noting keenly how long they stay put, although the process is more intricate than some leaders would want it to appear. It calls for a delicate balancing act that will make or break the marriage.

MAINTAIN CALENDAR OF EVENTS

“Jubilee is incumbent, so they don’t need to unveil a candidate. Now they are playing politics on Cord who, in my view, should maintain their calendar of events in the run-up to nomination of our presidential candidate. We will just ignore Jubilee.”

Beleaguered IEBC chairman Ahmed Issack Hassan says those who intend to stand for elective posts as independent candidates must resign from political parties by March 10, 2017, while political parties have up to May 8, next year, to present their nomination rules to the commission.

At the same time, public officers planning to run for various offices must resign from office by February 9, meaning they have less than six months to do so. Thus, plans by Mr Odinga’s party to conduct primaries in February will exert further strain. If done improperly, like was the case in 2013, the momentum would be stolen from Cord.

Murmurs from within that Mr Wetang’ula is sitting on the edge have further caused anxiety, especially among Ford-K supporters. His decision to disregard the rumour has done little to quell it.

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Similarly, the incessant association of Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi with the jostling for top seats in Cord has heightened the suspicions of Mr Wetang’ula’s supporters, who are reading a sinister motive. Both Mr Wetang’ula and Mr Mudavadi come from former Western province. The coming on board of the latter would trigger a reorganisation of the alliance’s top brass.

Last week, Mr Odinga told the Nation that Mr Wetang’ula’s position in Cord would still be tenable were Mr Mudavadi to join forces with them. Like is the case for Jubilee, these are highly political times for the opposition which, according to Mr Odinga, is expecting new entrants between now and next year.

Publicly, the three politicians want to project a calm image on the subject, but the series of secret consultations going on could betray the simmering suspicions.

The Sunday Nation, however, learnt from one of the principals that revealing the coalition torchbearer at this time would be a strategic blunder. He said the plan is to “unleash our formation” at the last minute with the hope of creating a euphoric ride to victory.

Mr Odinga’s ally and ODM secretary for political affairs Opiyo Wandayi further gave credence to this.

“From 2002 to the subsequent elections, major political parties and coalitions have unveiled their presidential candidates within the final three months to elections.

Naming our candidate remains a strategic issue. We shall do it at an opportune moment. The final shape and form of the coalition that will take us to the elections will become apparent only as we approach the election date,” he said.