Raila move presents legal, political puzzle

There is no denying Nasa leader Raila Odinga has yet again lived up to his billing as the “enigma in Kenyan politics” as posited by his Nigerian biographer, Babafemi Badejo.

In fact, his decision to withdraw from this month’s repeat presidential election has elicited more confusion and questions than answers among legal minds and political players alike.

Although Mr Odinga has notified the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission of his decision to opt out after saying the electoral body refused to address the “irreducible minimums” of reforms demanded by his coalition, the officials say the former Prime Minister remains in the race.

According to electoral officials, Mr Odinga must fill and sign the requisite Form 24A to officially exit from the contest. However, his legal team including Siaya Senator James Orengo and Nasa CEO Norman Magaya, have maintained this is not necessary.

The Opposition’s position is that the October election should be called off and a new process started. In there lies a legal landmine, which could either explode in the face of Mr Odinga or his opponents, thereby giving him a lifeline.

DIEHARD SUPPORTERS

But despite the public display of confidence by Nasa’s top politicians and party officials, there are emerging subdued fears among Mr Odinga’s diehard supporters. Could the latest move mark the beginning of political decline for the 72-year-old?

These fears are best captured by political analyst, Prof Amukowa Anangwe: “I think that Raila was well advised by his lawyer but the assumptions were wrong. It was more of a legal than a political move and the realities that they could have signalled the end of his presidential ambitions are now beginning to sink in.”

Some Nasa-allied politicians, however, maintain they have many options at their disposal to stop Mr Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidency and get back Mr Odinga on the ballot paper: “It is not for me to divulge the details, but watch this space, Kenyans will soon have another opportunity to vote for Baba (in reference to Mr Odinga) as their fifth President,” a second-term MP from western Kenya, who declined to be named, confided in this writer.

OUT OF RACE

Nonetheless, Mr Odinga insists he is out of the race. He told his audience in London, United Kingdom, where he delivered a speech on Kenya’s Next Test: Democracy, Elections and the Rule of Law at Chatham House on Friday: “My participation in this election would not only legitimise a corrupt exercise, but would also implicitly signal something much more ominous: my acceptance of the current drive by the Jubilee government to dismantle fundamental democratic rights that Kenyans have struggled and sacrificed for over decades.”

But Prof Anangwe believes that Mr Odinga may be cornered and his push for anti-IEBC demos and engagement with the international community is aimed at raising stakes for negotiations with the view to achieving two things – agree on Nasa’s so-called “irreducible minimums” conditions and thereby create a level-playing field ahead of the fresh election this month or at a later date enter into a power sharing arrangement to break the stalemate.

READ: US regrets Raila move to exit poll

READ: Uhuru reacts to Raila's poll pull-out

However, the political scientist points out that the power-sharing avenue is bound to face major resistance, particularly from Deputy President William Ruto and his backers, since such a move could elbow them out of the Kenyatta succession path.

POWER SHARING

Moreover, Mr Odinga and Nasa have consistently said they are not interested in a “nusu mkate” arrangement (coalition government) with Jubilee. Leader of Majority in the National Assembly, Aden Duale, argues that Mr Odinga has this time around scripted his own political obituary and may not make it back.

Even then, Jubilee is not taking any chances and has resumed countrywide campaigns while engineering more defections in perceived Nasa strongholds. Yesterday, State House Spokesman Manoah Esipisu released an ambitious campaign programme targeting 17 counties to be covered by President Kenyatta and Mr Ruto before October 26.

With Nasa no longer campaigning for the October 26 election and Jubilee on the other hand enjoying a free hand in vote-hunting, an environment of uncertainty remains among opposition supporters.

The situation is compounded by the fact that Mr Odinga’s rival – President Kenyatta – enjoys the machinery and powers of the incumbency, meaning he will continue to use the same to his political advantage up and until the final whistle is blown to the contest.

FORCEFUL HAND

But even in the middle of the forceful hand of the government, Mr Odinga’s supporters maintain they won the August 8 poll and will do so again under a free and fair atmosphere: “We have no doubts in our mind that we beat Jubilee hands down. Otherwise, how do you explain these four factors – the historic decision by the Supreme Court to annul Uhuru’s win, Jubilee’s decision to introduce a Bill that waters down the current electoral laws to accord them another rigging opportunity, bribery of poll losers to join their camps, and sustained campaigns to the eleventh hour?” says ODM’s director of elections, Junet Mohammed.

In the meantime, if Nasa’s push for a level playing field fails to yield fruit, then Mr Odinga who prides himself as a Pan-Africanist and who has admirable credentials as a crusader for constitutional and political reforms in Kenya for decades, will have to make tough choices on his political future. Prof Anangwe argues the former PM has already secured a place in the annals of Kenya’s and indeed Africa’s history.

But there is one key concern, that Kenyans must address – the upcoming election. Prof Anangwe is worried that this could spark violent countrywide protests: “How do we expect Kenyans to go to the polls divided with virtually one half of the country (Nasa supporters) being condemned to be observers? If the President and Raila do not reconcile their differences, we may witness the beginning of terrible phase in our country.”