Rise of the Third Force, or lure of the spoilers club?

What you need to know:

  • Jubilee and Cord have already been identified as the major political formations. 
  • Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi will have to fight hard to hold on to this spot or seal a deal with Cord leader Raila Odinga.
  • Yet Dr Ekuru Aukot believes his Thirdway Alliance Kenya is the “original” alternative to Cord and Jubilee.
  • Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba and Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua have all set out to project themselves as the alternative voice in the face of deep-rooted political bickering.

The number three position has never seemed so alluring, but a herd of “dark horses” is intensely jostling for the tag “Third Force” ahead of the next General Election.

Jubilee and Cord have already been identified as the major political formations. 

Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi, who has for nearly four years positioned himself as the alternative force to hard-tackle the Big Two, will have to fight hard to hold on to this spot or seal a deal with Cord leader Raila Odinga.

Presenting himself as the dark horse in the 2017 elections, the mild-mannered Mr Mudavadi — who emerged third in the 2013 presidential elections behind Jubilee’s Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Cord’s Mr Odinga —  has been positioning himself as a safe pair of hands.

Yet Dr Ekuru Aukot, one-time member of the Committee of Experts that drafted the Constitution, believes his Thirdway Alliance Kenya, which last week received a temporary registration certificate from the Registrar of Political Parties, is the “original” alternative to Cord and Jubilee.

“We are not going to accept the bad manners of negative ethnicity any more. We are challenging that status quo because we already know what tribalism is doing to this country. It has divided us down the middle,” said Dr Aukot, making the case for change. But with voting largely following ethnic lines, it remains to be seen what impact the lawyer’s movement will have.

Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba and Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua have all set out to project themselves as the alternative voice in the face of deep-rooted political bickering. The ANC leader sees them as pretenders to the throne.

SPREAD WINGS

When he led the launch of Maendeleo Chap Chap movement on Thursday, Dr Mutua said he would soon open offices of the outfit in all parts of the country, signalling his ambition to spread his wings beyond Ukambani. Like Dr Aukot, he says his main motivation is to “pull the country out of poverty”.

“We are introducing a new consciousness today called Maendeleo Chap Chap. I am not competing with any one. What we are out to fight is poverty,” he said on Friday night.

But it is his close ties with President Kenyatta that have raised questions on whether he is a viable alternative or simply being used by Jubilee as a spoiler in the Cord stronghold of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

With the term “consciousness” forming the basis of all these supposedly revolutionary ideas, the outfit stewarded by Mr Namwamba is also seeking to achieve Luhya consciousness. He says the community has been taken advantage of for the past 50 years and it is high time it charted a different path.

“The journey of building a new political force in this country is surely, definitely, equivocally and irrevocably on,” Mr Namwamba said. He explained that his party — which he is yet to identify —  will correct an existing “either or” arrangement dominated by Jubilee and Cord.

In the West, the alternative voices are propelled by growing disaffection with the dominant parties. In the US, for example, those dissatisfied with the Democratic and the Republic parties are seeking solace in the Libertarian and Green parties.

JOINING FORCES
In parliamentary systems like the United Kingdom and Israel, third party politics is a common phenomenon, with most of them joining forces with winning parties to form government, more so when winners fail to attract enough seats to form government.
It is not a new thing in Kenya where coalition politics has taken root.

After the hotly contested elections in 2007, ODM Kenya leader Mr Musyoka, who came third in the presidential contest, joined ranks with President Mwai Kibaki’s PNU to form government. Mr Odinga would later come in as prime minister after a negotiated settlement following post-election violence over the disputed presidential poll results.

After the last elections, Mr Mudavadi, again having come third, led his UDF party and Amani coalition into a post-election pact with Jubilee to hand Mr Kenyatta’s party majority stake in both the Senate and the National Assembly.

From such moves, the “Third Force” has often been viewed as a spoiler, even though some see their positioning as strategic. For instance, when he broke ranks with ODM, where he had been the secretary-general, Mr Namwamba came under scathing attack, with accusations that he had been bribed by Jubilee.

Remarks by Deputy President William Ruto to the effect that there is a tacit pact with the Budalang’i lawmaker to work with them has made it hard for him to shed the Jubilee tag.

Prof Ben Sihanya, a political analyst from the University of Nairobi, says the development is healthy for democracy, but he is quick to point out that Kenya does not have an ideologically driven “third force”.

He said that, save for Mr Mudavadi, efforts by other contenders will come to naught because they do not have a strong political base. “They have primarily been assembled by the ruling coalition to curtail Cord’s popularity. I doubt their ability to accomplish the intended purpose. Most of these people at one time belonged to Cord or ODM. Look at Mutua, Ababu and Aukot — they are Jubilee franchise,” he says.

But Jubilee will hear none of this. “Why do people assume, unfairly, that the category of politicians in question is of inferior mind? That they can’t chart a political cause away from Jubilee’s involvement? It is total disrespect for these leaders,” says National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale.

Prof Sihanya observes that were Mr Mudavadi to join forces with Cord, as has been widely predicted, Mr Namwamba would have no choice but to abandon his “Luhya consciousness” quest if he wants to survive the consequent political tide.

Mr Namwamba has embarked on countrywide tours to put forward his case.

He was at the Coast recently and is currently pitching camp in the Rift Valley, Mr Ruto’s stronghold.