Uhuru’s dilemma in push to save Ruto from ICC’s claws

What you need to know:

  • The President is in a spot where he has to choose between the interest of the country and that of his deputy and coalition.
  • If he chooses his ruling alliance ally, Kenya risks losing all the gains it has made since his own case at the ICC was dropped.

Until last month, Deputy President William Ruto’s allies were confident that the crimes against humanity case facing him at The Hague was on quicksand.

Key witnesses who could have corroborated evidence against him and his co-accused, radio presenter Joshua arap Sang, had recanted their statements.

But with the court’s ruling on August 19 that the prosecution can use the recanted evidence, all bets are off.

Now there is a feeling that the International Criminal Court’s noose is tightening around the neck of the DP.

His legal team has said it will appeal the ruling but in the meantime, his United Republican Party (URP) political camp has resolved to go on the offensive against the court and, some say, their The National Alliance (TNA) allies in the Jubilee administration.

It is a strategy that analysts say is fraught with many risks, not least of which is threatening the unity of the coalition government and drawing the wrath of the judges.

It has also emerged that Kenya’s UN Mission has written to the Assembly of State Parties to protest against the ruling.

In a letter to the ASP President Sidika Kaba dated August 25, Kenya says the ruling was ‘‘regrettable and improper.’’

The ruling has raised political temperatures in the Rift Valley, Mr Ruto’s bastion, and presented President Uhuru Kenyatta with a new headache.

Indeed, as the ‘‘prayers’’ start at a holy shrine at Kiptororo in Kuresoi, Nakuru, on Sunday, many Kenyans will be watching with keen interest.

Nakuru suffered the brunt of the 2007 election violence for which Mr Ruto and Mr Sang are in court. The violence, sparked by a disputed presidential election result, pitted the Opposition to which Mr Ruto then belonged against the Uhuru Kenyatta’s government side.

Some 1,133 Kenyans were killed and more than 600,000 uprooted from their homes, according to official figures.

There has been calm since the two came together in 2012 and swept to power a year later. But will the centre hold or things will fall apart?

On Friday, even as some in URP insisted that the rally was a ‘‘Kalenjin affair,’’ National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale, sent text messages to all coalition MPs inviting them to attend.

‘‘This is a Jubilee alliance prayer meeting, it is not a Kalenjin meeting. William Ruto is not a tribal chief, he is the Deputy President of this country. I am fully involved, the President is involved, the entire Jubilee coalition will attend the meeting to shame the ICC,’’ Mr Duale who added that the DP will not attend the rally or the other subsequent ones told Saturday Nation.

And Kericho Senator Charles Keter, one of the DP’s key allies said: “Our agenda is only one, to pray for the Deputy President, there is no other agenda. We are in government so we cannot start talking about quitting government. Our friends in TNA are free to join us at the meeting.’’

The political posturing may also backfire inside the Hague court if judges take a dim view of the vitriol they may be subjected to during the mass mobilisation in the name of prayers.

The prayer rally, the Saturday Nation has established, will be used to pile pressure on the government to come to Mr Ruto’s aid by lobbying the international community to drop his case.

There has been a feeling in the URP camp, which has been uncharacteristically loud after the August 19 ruling, that the government, through the Attorney-General and the Foreign Affairs ministry, has not been pushing with as much vigour as it did when the President was before the court.

President Kenyatta’s dilemma is that his fortunes have in the last several months been on the rise, complete with an embrace by the international community which had treated him like a pariah when he was still before the ICC.

Before his charges were dropped, Kenya was isolated diplomatically and economically, with devastating consequences.

With European and American tourists giving the country a wide berth because of travel advisories, tourism collapsed with as many as 20,000 job losses at the Coast alone.

But since Uhuru was let off the hook, things have changed. The international isolation has ended and this was signalled with the holding of the Global Economic Summit in Kenya in July which was attended by US President Barack Obama.

Once again, tourism is on the upswing after the lifting of advisories. The security situation has tremendously improved with US and Britain playing a frontline role in the war on terror by providing intelligence and training for Kenyan counter-terrorism agents.

The president risks losing all these gains if his government was to start another nasty war against the ICC and by extension the Western powers.

But pitted against this scenario is the stark reality of losing Mr Ruto’s Rift Valley constituency, which handed him the presidency in 2013 and which he needs for re-election in 2017.

The president is being pushed in a spot and, to come out, he will have to choose between the country and his deputy. “The Kalenjin nation is going to a shrine to make their submissions to God known. When things are blue, the community has always resorted to higher power that is fair and sincere,” said former Roads minister Franklin Bett, his comments capturing the mood in the vast region.

Senators Keter and Elgeyo Marakwet’s Kipchumba Murkomen said that the meeting will set precedent on how the community “will relate with the ICC.”

“As a nation, we will make pronouncements as to what we think should be our way of relating with this court that we think is clearly unfair to us. We will also talk about what we want certain government departments to do,” said Mr Murkomen in apparent reference to the Attorney-General’s office and Foreign ministry.

“It is the duty of government to protect its citizens, including Ruto and Sang, from the jaws of a rogue system like the ICC. And from our end, some government departments are not putting in as much pressure as they should. At the meeting, we will remind them as a community,” said Mr Murkomen.

With increased pressure from the URP side and a feeling from its legislators that the government must do as much as it did for President Kenyatta’s case, political analysts argue that the Head of State is a man thrown into a doomed or situation where both choices are dire.

“President Kenyatta lost a lot of time and energy focusing on his case and the feeling after its withdrawal was that he should get down to business. With this renewed push, he now has to decide whether he wants to spend more time on the ICC and get the Rift Valley or focus on the manifesto and not be more involved in the Ruto case and lose that bloc,” University of Nairobi political scientist Adams Oloo argues.

On the international scene, Dr Oloo said that the president risks being viewed in the “choices have consequences” category again.

The phrase was used by the United States to argue against electing the Jubilee duo who were before the Hague-based court.

“He has finally gotten out of the jaws of the ICC. If he’s seen to be telling Ruto to boycott the court, he risks losing the support that came with his case being withdrawn. But the local threat of losing Ruto is even more real than losing the international partners,” said Dr Oloo.

President Kenyatta, he added, has already seen what it means to have a post-ICC life capped by US President Barack Obama’s July visit which is raising the stakes of his dilemma.

“He is a man who might not be too willing to go back to the fugitive side. But then what do you do to a coalition partner that brought in every vote he had for you? It becomes even more critical when the whole community reminds you to do as much as you did for yourself,’’ said Dr Oloo.

But University of Laikipia’s Malawi Rotich thinks the meeting can be used to President Kenyatta’s advantage.

“The president has an ample opportunity to cement his support in the Rift Valley. The meeting will give DP Ruto a chance to talk to his community into renewing their support for the Jubilee Alliance Party, that Mr Kenyatta hopes to use to ascend to power in 2017,” said Prof Rotich.

Bomet East MP Bernard Bett said: “We will make it very clear on Sunday on what we need the government to do. We want tangible and sustained pressure to get our innocent brothers back”.
According to Dr Oloo, the timing of the prayer rally sent a strong message to the TNA wing of the Jubilee coalition.

“The Kalenjin are saying: look, time is up and the lines are drawn. You are either with us or against us. They appear to be saying that the time for lip service was over and they want Ruto and Sang given the same attention as President Kenyatta,” argues Dr Oloo.

Mr Murkomen said: “We know what we want and we are going to say it as it is.”

And on Friday, President Kenyatta’s allies tried to tone down the issue that is threatening to tear the ruling coalition apart.

“The Deputy President is a key cog in the Jubilee machine. The party and the government will do everything political and legal to ensure he and Joshua Sang are free,” said Kigumo MP Jamleck Kamau.

Indeed, the President needs his deputy as the clock ticks towards the 2017 elections. Efforts to merge the URP and TNA will suffer serious damage if Ruto was to be eliminated from the political scene.
It will mean his Rift Valley heartland will scatter politically and may not deliver the bloc vote that saw the coalition sweep to power in 2013.

This makes some in TNA to risk all to get their key ally off the ICC hook. “If ICC persists we could call their bluff and boycott them. Kenya’s cooperation with The Hague has been abused. Continued prosecution of the DP is assaulting our sovereignty,” Mukurweini MP Kabando wa Kabando said.

Interesting times ahead for Kenya.