Which way will Kenya move as Uhuru and Raila differ?

Nasa leader Raila Odinga (left) and President Uhuru Kenyatta. PHOTO | FILE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • With Mr Odinga playing cards close to his chest and his lieutenants staying tight-lipped, details of the much anticipated pronouncement remain unclear.

  • While President Kenyatta is reportedly focused on the reconstitution of his government, sources within Nasa and civil society say Raila is on the contrary preparing his team for another repeat election.

  • Senior constitutional lawyer Gabriel Mukele opines that the shift from Nasa to NRM is bound to undermine Mr Odinga’s quest for the country’s top seat.

Opposition chief Raila Odinga is destined to offer yet another “important direction” to his supporters tomorrow on the next cause of action – a development he promises will ultimately change the dimension of the political landscape of the country.

With Mr Odinga playing cards close to his chest and his lieutenants staying tight-lipped, details of the much anticipated pronouncement remain unclear. His supporters in the National Super Alliance (Nasa) as well as his key political rival President Uhuru Kenyatta and the Jubilee Party fraternity remain just as anxious.

While President Kenyatta is reportedly focused on the reconstitution of his government following Thursday’s repeat poll boycotted by Mr Odinga, multiple sources within Nasa and civil society have intimated to the Sunday Nation that the opposition chief is on the contrary preparing his team for another repeat election.

In an exclusive interview with the CNN on Friday, Mr Odinga appeared to hint on his Monday’s “important message” to Kenyans.

SHAMBOLIC

Terming Thursday’s elections as shambolic and a mockery of Kenyan democracy, the former Prime Minister said he was waiting for the “situation to calm down” so that fresh and credible elections can be organised. Mr Odinga partly touched on the same when he addressed supporters in Nairobi’s Kibera constituency on Friday.    

The import of the Nasa leader’s sentiments is that the coalition will be proceeding to the Supreme Court to challenge the exercise.

Although the coalition may not wish to directly contest Mr Kenyatta’s win, insiders within Nasa have confided to the Nation that they will be executing this plot via independent organisations or individuals.

In fact Makueni MP Daniel Maanzo already gave away this secret – thanks to his confession on Thursday evening at a press conference at Nairobi’s Serena Hotel to the effect that Nasa was gathering evidence to present before the Supreme Court. Already there are two cases before the Chief Justice David Maraga-led court challenging the credibility of the repeat poll by three voters represented by lawyers John Khaminwa and Harun Ndubi and the second by activist Okiya Okoit Omtata. The latter unsuccessfully vied for a senatorial seat in Busia County on a Ford-Kenya party ticket.   

CONSOLIDATE SUPPORT

On his part, however, Mr Kenyatta plans to consolidate his support across the country and secure his legacy during his second and last term in office. Speaking to the media after casting his vote on Thursday, the President said he would reach out to his rival Mr Odinga with a view of working on modalities to unite the country.

Clearly the two political leaders are pulling in different directions – thanks to sharp differences in their priorities. This reality may be a pointer to the fact that the just ended repeat polls mark the end of nothing but the beginning of everything, in terms of renewed hostilities and political battlefronts.      

 In his characteristic proverbial and figurative language, Mr Odinga likens the Jubilee Party to a domesticated cat that has become wild and which must be killed. He accordingly offers many ways of skinning the “wild cat”, one of which he claims will succeed.

UNFINISHED BUSINESS

Mr Odinga still has unfinished political business and this is certainly not the time for him to exit the political scene. In fact judging from the parliamentary numbers that are heavily skewed in favour of the President, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader has a huge task of balancing the equation hopefully through pending petitions against Jubilee Party allied legislators.

This will not come easy as he must first pull off victory in the courts and proceed to register victory at the ballot after marshalling support on the ground.

As well as the President, who has his legacy to think about once he is sworn in for a second term, Mr Odinga too has political succession headaches to deal with – at his local Nyanza region and national levels. The birth of a new baby – National Resistance Movement (NRM) – is partly geared at achieving this feat.        

Nonetheless the idea of NRM introduces new challenges and even confusion. Although Mr Odinga says NRM is the transformed outfit of the Nasa coalition, these swift changes in name begs some questions. Is the Odinga team officially discarding the Nasa outfit? If this is the case, will it proceed to its anticipated repeat polls as NRM? And is NRM an already registered entity or is it just a vessel geared at defying government and pushing for a political agenda?

NRM OUTFIT

Senior constitutional lawyer Gabriel Mukele opines that the shift from Nasa to NRM is bound to undermine Mr Odinga’s quest for the country’s top seat. According to the ex-vice chairman of the now defunct Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK), the NRM outfit is not an appropriate vehicle for Mr Odinga’s immediate goal to ascend to the presidency.

“Ideally NRM disrupts Raila’s quest for the presidency. This is supposed to be a continuous journey which kicked off at the ballot in August, and it is on these grounds that the Nasa candidate ought to pursue his case. Judges are bound to shy away from this new NRM idea,” says Mr Mukele. 

Senate Majority Leader Kipchumba Murkomen shares this view. NRM, he argues, is legally an unknown entity to the electoral body and has neither a place in the Kenyan elections nor business engaging the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) in any discussion. Coining the meaning of NRM to “national rebel movement”, the Jubilee Party’s senior political operative maintains that only Nasa is known to Kenyans.
However, Political Science lecturer at the University of Nairobi, Dr George Katete, lauds the idea of a resistance movement.

REBELLION

According to Katete, the notion behind the movement practically captures the dire situation in the country where a section of Kenyans feel excluded from the government of the day: “This is not about rebellion against the government but rather a movement to resist continuous political and social injustices and in particular the apparent profiling of an ethnic community, whose members have been murdered in large numbers during this electioneering period.”      

Nairobi-based lawyer, Harun Ndubi, projects that the courts will be swamped by a series of litigations immediately the IEBC proclaims a winner.

Mr Ndubi himself is representing three voters who are challenging the legality and credibility of the Thursday polls. His case was destined for hearing and determination on the eve of election day but flopped owing to a quorum hitch on the Supreme Court bench.

LEGAL POSITION

“Over and above the politicians’ partisan views and my own legal position that the Thursday poll is invalid, there is need for an urgent sober conversation on the way forward for our country. Judging from the figures of the Thursday poll, for instance, Kenyatta is the legal President but there is also Raila, who is the leader whom majority of Kenyans listened to and kept away from the poll stations,” observes Ndubi.

Noting that a government derives legitimacy through the people, Ndubi opines that Mr Kenyatta cannot solely symbolise national unity and must therefore come down and dialogue with Mr Odinga so that both can work on an all inclusive government. In the meantime, he says, the political and legal battle shall continue to dominate the scene.