Crowded race complicates matters for Uhuru and Raila

While every Kenyan has a democratic right to seek any political office in the land, there is no denying that some of the aspirants have an extremely slim chance of clinching the presidency this August.

According to Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, United Democratic Party (UDP) leader Cyrus Jirongo is one such politician. And the medical doctor prescribes a more practical dosage: “Instead of trying to flex muscles where he has none, Jirongo should simply grab the Kakamega senate seat. This is the best bet for him, considering that I am not in the race this time round.”

But Mr Jirongo is not alone. He is just one of the latest 16 presidential hopefuls perceived to be spoilers in a game that has, over the last four years, shaped up as a two-horse race.

Of the eight candidates who participated in the 2013 polls, five have scaled down their ambitions or opted out of the race this year. Narc-Kenya party leader Martha Karua and former assistant minister Peter Kenneth are now vying for gubernatorial seats in Kirinyaga and Nairobi counties respectively, while ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi has shelved his ambitions and is instead backing the candidature of Raila Odinga, who is a member of his recently crafted Nasa. On the other hand, former Education Permanent Secretary James ole Kiyiapi and constitutional lawyer Paul Muite have this time round opted out.

ABDUBA DIDA

But not so with Mr Mohammed Abduba Dida, who finished fifth in the March 4 presidential poll. He is joined in the race by two 2007 presidential losers, Mr Nixon Kukubo and Ms Nazlin Umar. Newcomers in the now-crowded race include Senator Kennedy Mong’are of Federal Party of Kenya, Mr Jirongo, Thirdway Alliance Party leader, Dr Ekuru Aukot, and Peter Ondeng of Restore and Build Kenya party.

Others are former Cabinet minister Joe Nyaga, Prof Michael Wainaina, Robert Mukhwana Juma, Japheth Kaviinga, Joseph Musyoka, Erastus Nyamera, Stephen Owoko, David Munga and Peter Osotsi, all who will be seeking to vie as independent candidates.

Vocal lawyer and former Law Society of Kenya chairman Ahmednasir Abdullahi likens Kenyan politics to schooling under the local education system. According to him, one matures progressively from kindergarten, lower primary, upper primary, high school, tertiary institutions before winding up at the university.

Mr Abdullahi likens some of the aspirants as kindergarten and lower primary school pupils, who cannot be in the same class or sit examinations with Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr Odinga, whom he equates – in the political arena – to PhD students.

GOOD AMOUNT

In order to make a mark in Kenyan politics at the presidential level, he observes, one has to invest a good amount of time and resources. Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga, for instance, have separately been active in politics for a period of more than two decades, with Mr Kenyatta making his first unsuccessful bid to join Parliament in 1997 and Mr Odinga getting elected as Lang’ata MP in 1992.

Those who support this school of thought dismiss the possibility of the so-called Trump Effect – that is the sudden emergence of a newcomer on the political arena to become president as was the case last November in the US, following the presidential poll victory of business mogul, Donald Trump. Even then, Mr Trump had for decades been a well-known public figure. In Kenya, says Mr Abdullahi, one has to build a solid support base over time.

So what then lies behind the candidature of the newcomers or those who are relatively weaker in politics? Are they out to deliberately play the spoiler or are they just pawns in a game manipulated by the big boys? Alternatively, are some of these candidates’ mere job-, attention- or fame-seekers? Or do they genuinely want to kick off their political careers from the apex?

SELECTIVE REPORTING

Dr Aukot explains that they simply want to exercise their right of participating in a political process by providing Kenyans a wider range of choice. The lawyer, nonetheless, accuses the media of standing in their way allegedly through selective reporting.

If all the 18 candidates are cleared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission to run for the presidency, they could pose a number of challenges to the polls body as well as complicate chances for the front runners. Considering, for instance, that Jubilee’s Mr Kenyatta scraped through getting past the 500-percent-plus-one mandatory mark in 2013 with a paltry 16,000 votes, the importance of this “constituency of crowded aspirants” in winning the August polls cannot be overstated.

In fact, Mr Kenneth and Mr Mudavadi have separately hinted that their votes may have been stolen by poll agents of Mr Kenyatta or Mr Odinga, the two leading candidates in the 2013 polls, to improve their tallies.

This time round the list of candidates is even longer and, if they drop out of the race midway, their votes could substantially tilt the scales. Alternatively in the event of a presidential runoff, this lot of candidates can enter into a pre-poll pact to swing their support either way. This is indeed good political business.

'DIVISIVE NATURE'

And while appreciating that the former Lugari legislator is acting within his democratic right, Mr Ayub Savula, who is the current area MP, is unhappy about the “divisive nature” of Mr Jirongo’s quest. “As my senior brother in politics, I expect him to give guidance and offer hope to the Luhya community. I plead with Jirongo to join hands with other senior Luhya politicians, including Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula, ahead of the August polls,” says Mr Savula.

However, Mr Jirongo denies playing the spoiler or being a Jubilee mole. The UDP leader hopes to win the presidency so that he can address “serious issues affecting Kenyans”. The one-time Cabinet minister says he is best placed to liberate Kenyans.

Mr Jirongo’s entry into the presidential race is not entirely unexpected. Last month, he threatened to vie for the top seat in the event Mr Mudavadi and Ford-Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula failed to clinch the Nasa presidential ticket.

This is not the first time Mr Jirongo is engaging in a political feud with Mr Mudavadi. The two have been at it for over two decades now. In 2001 when retired President Moi was reorganising Kanu party’s leadership structures, for instance, the two clashed over who should occupy one of the five vice-chairmen’s slots reserved for western Kenya. Mr Moi asked Mr Jirongo to stand down in favour of Mudavadi.

HE DECLINED

The two immediately parted ways after Kanu was elbowed from its 40-year hold on power. In 2007, Mr Jirongo declined to team up with Mr Mudavadi in the ODM wave that swept the boards in western Kenya in the General Election. Nonetheless, Mr Jirongo managed to win the Lugari parliamentary seat on a Kaddu ticket.

In 2013, Mr Jirongo and Mr Mudavadi swapped positions with the latter bolting out of Mr Odinga’s wings and Mr Jirongo joining ranks with the ODM leader under the Cord umbrella.