Why Lee Kinyanjui defeated Kinuthia Mbugua

When Mr Lee Kinyanjui was declared the winner of the gubernatorial primary for the Jubilee Party in Nakuru, the victory hit the loser, Governor Kinuthia Mbugua, like a thunderbolt.

It was a defeat he least anticipated given that he had been backed by a well-oiled campaign machinery and wealthy businessmen in the county and beyond.

Mr Kinyanjui, the former chairman of the National Transport and Safety Authority and a former Member of Parliament (MP) for Nakuru Town, polled 216,385 votes while Mr Mbugua got 150,137, with Mr John Mututho coming a distant third with 30,487.

In all the 11 constituencies including the strongholds of Mr Mbugua such as Naivasha, Subukia, Nakuru Town West, Molo, Kuresoi North and South, Bahati, Mr Kinyanjui trounced the incumbent.

The governor only managed to defeat his closest rival in Nakuru Town East Constituency by a slim margin of only 3,254 votes, polling 16,808; Mr Kinyanjui had 13,554 votes.

Both Mr Mbugua and Mr Mututho have dismissed the results and described them as “sham”. They vowed to appeal and indicated they were considering running as independent candidates.

“The number of voters in some stations exceeded those in the register and I feel the elections were not free and fair,” Mr Mbugua argues.

But now analysts in the region say Mr Mbugua should blame himself for the defeat as the writing was on the wall. He should eat humble pie and accept the results.

KISS GOODBYE

According to pundits, Mr Mbugua started kissing goodbye the governor’s seat when he decided to retain his deputy Mr Joseph Ruto as running mate.

Mr Ruto hails from the populous Kipsigis subcommunity of the Kalenjin – kingmakers in Nakuru politics.

Many political analysts believe that the split amongst this Kalenjin voting block during the primaries spoilt his chances of retaining the seat.

The region overwhelmingly voted for Mr Mbugua in the 2013 General Election but the results in the primaries exposed a huge split in their voting pattern.

In Kuresoi North, Mr Kinyanjui had 20,217 while Mr Mbugua had 10,750 and in Kuresoi South, Mr Kinyanjui had 16,133 while Mr Mbugua had 12,189.

The decision by Governor Mbugua to retain Mr Ruto did not go down well with the community. It sparked a hot debate and infighting amongst the opinion leaders and ordinary residents.

It was largely expected that Mr Mbugua would pick either his executive in charge of Water, Environment, Energy and Natural Resources Richard Rop or his political adviser Mr Ezekiel Kesendany as his running mate.

“My deputy has served me well and I have no problem with him,” Mr Mbugua had argued.

His refusal to change his mind on his running mate even as the mood on the ground indicated that he was headed for a defeat has now come to haunt him.

BUG U-TURN

A section of the community who were solidly behind the governor made a big U-turn and backed his fiercest rival in the Jubilee primaries.

“We rightly warned Mr Mbugua that he is likely to lose in the nominations for sticking to his deputy but he ignored us,” said Mr Joseph Cheruiyot, a retired forester and an elder from Kiptagich Ward.

Another elder from Tinet Ward, Mr Paul Tororey, said Mr Ruto development record in the area was zero and wanted Mr Mbugua to inject in fresh blood.

The youths in Kuresoi were also bitter and had sounded a warning that they will not support Mr Mbugua second bid if he retained Mr Ruto as his running mate.

“We told Mr Mbugua but he went ahead and retained him. He is now reaping the fruits of ignoring the youths who are the majority voters,” said a youthful resident Mr Patrick Yegon.

On the other hand, Mr Kinyanjui, reading the mood on the ground ignored the boardroom approach of picking a running mate.

He instead tasked the Wanjikus in the four wards to shortlist the best candidates and present him with the best candidate. This seems to have paid dividends as his choice of Dr Eric Korir appears to have worked in his favour.

ALL-INCLUSIVE CHOICE

His choice was viewed by many in the community as all-inclusive and was largely accepted.

“I gave the community the terms of reference because I didn’t want a retiree who is enjoying pension but somebody energetic to take the county to the next level of development,” said Mr Kinyanjui.

His victory was jubilantly received by many residents, who see him as more urbane and a resident of the county unlike, Mr Mbugua whose relationship with the county was the many years he has worked as a civil servant in the region.

“He was my MP, he is youthful and cuts across as a figure of a leader who will embrace all the communities,” said Mr William Ating’a, a former civic leader and an ODM official in Nakuru Town.

Mr Kinyanjui, 45, seems to resonate well with the "digital generation", whose numbers are growing in all the urban centres.

A seemingly easy going nature and readiness to mingle with the residents is another strength that he capitalised on during his election campaign.

Mr Kinyanjui says although he enjoys warm reception from all the communities, he is not a project of any political wing or leader.

'A SERVANT'

“I am not a project of anybody but a servant of the more than 2 million residents of Nakuru who have faith in my leadership and voted for me,” said Mr Kinyanjui who is also a former assistant minister for roads.

Mr Mbugua was also seen not to be easily accessible with both the ordinary residents and the business community unanimously holding the feeling that it was a tall order to see him.

Even on Thurdays, which are set aside for Mr Mbugua to meet the public, residents had a hectic task getting to him through the human shield that ringed his office.

Mr Kinyanjui promises to revamp the capital investment in the county and attract more investors.

“This county was home to brand names such as Eveready, Pyrethrum Board of Kenya and numerous local companies and my priority would be to set a conducive environment to attract investors who will create job for the youths,” said Mr Kinyanjui.

The numerous failures by Mr Mbugua’s administration which has received slightly over Sh40 billion from the national government against an average of Sh2.5 billion collected as internal revenue annually was another factor that saw the residents vote him out.

CURTAILED BID

Stalled projects such as ECD classes, deplorable roads, lack of water and runaway corruption in his administration curtailed his bid for a second term as governor.

“It’s almost embarrassing being a resident of Nakuru County in this era of devolution because four years down the line there is nothing to celebrate,” says Mr Simon Sangale ole Nasieku.

Mr Mbugua’s biggest achievement was the removal of the hawkers from the Central Business District, a move that was hailed by traders.

However, it is this brutal eviction that has played a major role in his defeat as the hawkers regrouped and vowed to send him to an early political retirement. The hawkers were unhappy as they were relocated to an area behind Oginga Odinga Road that lacked basic sanitation facilities.

Many small scale traders complained that the tenders were awarded to a cartel of traders in Nairobi.

“The lion share of the tenders were not benefiting the business community but a cartel of traders in Nairobi,” said Mr Mathew Kinuthia, a businessman.

In the devolved agriculture function, pyrethrum farmers in Molo were unhappy that Mr Mbugua failed to revive the lucrative sub sectors despite appointing a task force to address the issue.

CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Lack of capital investment despite a whirlwind of tour of dozen countries abroad did not yield a single flagship project.

But it is Mr Mbugua’s indecisiveness to crack the whip on runaway corruption in his administration that has put him on the path for an early retirement.

Besides corruption, the other elephant in the room that he failed to confront is the illegal hiring of staff which has gobbled billions of shillings of taxpayers’ money.

At least 70 per cent of the funding from the national government goes to pay salaries to a bloated workforce of more than 7,000 workers.

An ad hoc committee set up by Speaker Susan Wakarura Kihika revealed a massive rot in the employment process in the county.

At least 200 workers were illegally employed and the ad hoc committee recommended the sacking of county secretary Joseph Mogusu Motari and Chief Officer Philip Sigei but Mr Mbugua never implemented the directive.

Most of the residents still feel that his administration particularly the executive was still dominated by two dominant communities of Kalenjin and Kikuyu.

However, Mr Mbugua says his administration is all-inclusive and pointed an accusing finger at the County Public Service Board led by Dr Waithanji Mutiti for failing on its duties.