Five thorny areas that will shape State House race for Jubilee, Nasa

The battle for State House could be determined by five key factors that will either hand President Uhuru Kenyatta a second term on August 8 or pave the way for victory for the opposition.

Analysts say unity of key opposition politicians coalescing around the newly-formed National Super Alliance (Nasa) will play a big role in re-shaping the political landscape.

Opposition leaders Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Moses Wetang’ula and Musalia Mudavadi are crafting a formula that could see one of them picked as the opposition flagbearer to take on Mr Kenyatta under Nasa.

Analyst and publisher Barrack Muluka argues that a surprise pairing up of any two of the opposition bigwigs running against Mr Kenyatta and his running mate, Deputy President William Ruto, may spell doom for the Jubilee team.

“If they were to choose their candidate selflessly, bringing in some freshness that the country has not seen yet, it could trigger excitement all the way to State House,” Mr Muluka said. But he warned that such an arrangement would only be potent if none of the coalition members bolted out once the line-up was unveiled.

Picking who becomes the flagbearer is so far the greatest threat to Nasa’s unity, a process that could also end up in a serious fallout if not handled carefully. Disunity in the opposition would give Mr Kenyatta an easy ride.

Mr Musyoka captured the desperate need for opposition unity during the unveiling of Nasa, stating that he was willing to sacrifice his presidential ambitions to ensure the opposition went to the polls as a united front.

REGISTER VOTERS

Another key factor that will play a big role in determining the election outcome is the ability of the respective camps to register voters in their strongholds.

The political camp that enlists more voters and mobilises them to come out and cast their ballots on August 8 will have a huge advantage.

“Voter registration and turnout are key determinants of the final outcome. Whether the technology deployed for identification of voters — mainly Biometric Voter Registration (BVR) — and for transmission of results, works properly and whether there will be a need to deploy complementary mechanisms, are the unknowns,” Mr Isaac Okero, president of the Law Society of Kenya, told the Nation.

Statistics from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) show that Central Kenya, President Kenyatta’s stronghold, has in the past two elections recorded a higher voter turnout than the national average. He will be hoping to achieve the same feat this year.

Mr Muluka further says an arrangement that brings on board politicians who have shown willingness to work with Nasa, such as Kanu’s Gideon Moi and Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto of Chama cha Mashinani, would give the new outfit more national acceptance.

While dynamics such as the state of the economy, which has taken a beating due to a combination of factors, and reports of soaring levels of corruption levelled against Mr Kenyatta’s regime, are other determinants, Mr Muluka feels they may not significantly influence the eventual result.

He adds that such dynamics would apply only in an election characterised by issue-driven campaigns. “In a country where the president is looked at as an ethnic trophy, corruption, nepotism and such-like ills will not matter at the ballot.”

ETHNIC HEGEMONY

The narrative may, however, matter in swing-vote areas, depending on how the opposition plays it up. The opposition has expressed a determination to dismantle what they describe as ethnic hegemony, drawing criticism from Jubilee politicians led by National Assembly Majority leader Aden Duale, who dismisses Nasa as a tribal outfit.

Gusiiland and the northern parts of Kenya have largely been projected as battleground zones for the government and the opposition. Intense campaigns in these areas by the two coalitions demonstrate this. Western region, which was previously viewed as a swing-vote area, seems to be gravitating towards Nasa, especially with the re-emergence of a rejuvenated Mr Mudavadi and a combative Mr Wetang’ula.

There are those who believe the International Criminal Court (ICC) question may play a major part in Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto’s campaigns, but this will depend on how the opposition will react to it.

Mr Odinga has repeatedly voiced his disappointment that the duo was set free by the ICC, alleging this was not because of their innocence but due to witness intimidation, earning him the wrath of Jubilee supporters who maintain that he had a hand in the cases.

“I see a likelihood of Jubilee trying to resuscitate the ICC subject but this will depend on how the opposition responds to it. If they take the bait, then this could offer Jubilee another reason to rally their troops together. It could turn out to be an object of mass mobilisation,” says Mr Tom Mboya, a political analyst.

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto were facing crimes against humanity charges emanating from the 2007 post-election violence which gripped the country following a disputed presidential poll. In the run-up to the 2013 elections, the two politicians forged an alliance, portraying themselves as victims of international players who were out to stop their ascendancy to power.

FEAR-MONGERING

They also accused members of civil society and the Orange Democratic Movement of having played a role in getting them indicted in The Hague.
At the same time, it appears fear-mongering will be an integral part of the campaigns. Mr Kenyatta set the stage on Thursday when he said, “He (Mr Odinga) claims that he won the 2013 elections yet we know he lost. Register as voters so that we can send him home for good.

Please stop saying that you are too busy to register, or you are waiting for the last minute. If we lose power, you will not be busy as some of those jobs and businesses will disappear.” He was addressing the public in Murang’a County.

The opposition has vowed to unseat Mr Kenyatta. To fend off this threat, the President is leading the ongoing voter enlisting drive in his strongholds.
Mr Odinga, on the other hand, is telling his supporters that were Mr Kenyatta to secure a second term, the economy would collapse, citing graft and incompetence.

Another elephant in the room is party primaries. With the grave danger of fostering voter apathy, all the leading parties are keen to conduct credible nominations.

Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party has indicated that the IEBC will preside over its primaries, while Mr Odinga has promised supporters and aspirants that the nominations will be above board. Bitter feelings by aspirants for being unfairly locked out will have ripple effects on the presidential poll.

And this could make the difference in what promises to be a tight race.

Finally, a watertight electoral system will also have a direct bearing on the outcome. An argument is being put forth in favour of a flawless system, one that ensures that whoever emerges the winner is a true reflection of the people’s will, and not a beneficiary of insider dealing at the polls or external interference.

Assurances by the new IEBC chairman, Mr Wafula Chebukati, moments after he took the oath of office on Friday, that the commission will be a neutral referee can only serve to restore public confidence in the electoral management. This can make or break the country.