Western Kenya yet again the most sought-after 'bride'

With just 57 days to the General Election, western Kenya is living up to its billing as one of Kenya’s most sought-after political brides. President Uhuru Kenyatta has just concluded his charm offensive in the region, a week after the National Super Alliance officially started its campaigns in Kakamega for presidential candidate Raila Odinga

Both Jubilee Party and Nasa campaign teams are scrambling for a share of the 1.9 million registered voters in the region. These numbers are only from Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega and Vihiga. The Luhya vote is also significant in Trans Nzoia and other counties such as Nairobi, Nakuru, Uasin Gishu and Mombasa.

“Unlike other big communities that vote as a bloc, the Luhya is perhaps the most democratic community in Kenya, having voted in previous polls for at least every presidential candidate. However, bindu bichenjanga (things change) and this time round our votes are headed to one basket,” says Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale.

The Ford-Kenya deputy leader envisages an end to the “electoral generosity” since most influential politicians from the community – Mr Musalia Mudavadi (Amani National Congress) and Mr Moses Wetang’ula (Ford-Kenya) – are in Nasa.

Dr Edward Kisiangani, a commentator on political issues who teaches history at Kenyatta University, concurs. He observes that the coming together of Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula gives Nasa an upper hand despite sustained campaigns by President Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto.

The Jubilee Party’s key political lieutenants in the region include Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka, Water Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, Labour Party leader and Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba and Mumias East MP Benjamin Washiali among others. Some also consider presidential hopeful Cyrus Jirongo as a spoiler for Nasa. Jubilee Party strategists are keen to ensure they take a big slice out of Nasa’s vote in the region.

Aware of the political stakes at hand, it is understandable why Kakamega recently served as the venue for Nasa’s official launch of national campaigns. Besides being the perceived capital of the populous voting bloc, Kakamega leads with the highest number of registered voters – almost 800,000 – among the perceived pro-Nasa counties.

In an interview with the Nation, Nasa pentagon member and chairman of the campaign committee, Mr Musalia Mudavadi, explained the choice was in recognition of the Western bloc as a crucial voter-base for Nasa.

“Before proceeding on a charm offensive across the country, we wanted to start by locking in all our people in this region. We have a compelling development masterplan for the region and we are certain we shall soon have everyone on board,” said the former Deputy Prime Minister.

THANK COMMUNITY

However, Dr Khalwale explains the choice of Kakamega to launch the campaign was to thank the Luhya community for crafting and “donating” the Nasa outfit to the opposition. The idea of Nasa was conceived by Mr Mudavadi’s ANC. The Kakamega Senator, who is challenging incumbent Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, said there was also a need to appease voters after Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula shelved their presidential ambitions in favour of Mr Odinga and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka in a power-sharing deal.

 “We had to kick off the campaigns from home with a view to addressing our people’s expectations and explain to them why Nasa remains our political home and Raila our best bet for the presidency,” says the senator.

Incidentally, Mr Odinga also regards Kakamega as his second home and often says he is a descendant of Nabongo Mumia, a paramount king.

Mr Junet Mohammed, the Orange Democratic Movement Director of Elections, says Kakamega was a natural choice.

“Kakamega is to us and our presidential candidate what Kiambu County is to (President) Uhuru and his Jubilee brigade,” says Mr Mohammed.

The two counties curiously have almost the same population size averaging two million. However, Kiambu has about 300,000 more registered voters than Kakamega, according to figures from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission before the audit of the register.

'THE STRONGHOLD'

“We want to prop up Kakamega to match Kiambu in the stronghold of our Jubilee rivals, in terms of votes realised on August 8. Ideally, we want Kakamega to cancel out Kiambu’s tyranny of numbers,” says Mr Mohammed.

With Kakamega and the other counties in the former western province – Busia, Bungoma and Vihiga – largely perceived to be Nasa zones, the Suna East MP says the plan is to have a solid political bloc merged with the entire Nyanza region. However, these efforts are threatened by intense internal competition. The three active parties in the region – ODM, ANC and Ford Kenya – are embroiled in cut-throat competition for various seats, creating the possibility that candidates like Mr Lusaka and Mr Namwamba, who are allied to the Jubilee Party, could win their seats.

Lugari MP Ayub Savula, for instance, wants the Orange party candidates for parliamentary and ward seats to step down in favour of colleagues in ANC and Ford-Kenya. Noting that the ODM leader is the Nasa presidential candidate, the ANC-allied legislator argues that “in the spirit of equality, members of Raila’s (Mr Odinga’s) party should shelve their ambitions”.

But Mr Mohammed of ODM disagrees: “There is no need for panic because this is our stronghold. In any case, I also have competitors from ANC and Ford-Kenya challenging me in Suna East and I am not complaining. Let us just have an inclusive process where the best candidate wins.”

Amid such challenges, Mr Lusaka promises a bruising battle with the Jubilee Party promising to pull “a major poll upset”. Although it is mainly occupied by the Luhya, western Kenya is also home to members of other communities, including the Sabaot, the Teso in Busia and pockets of the Luo across the region.