Why waste Sh15bn on elections when a census would tell you the result?
One of the most fascinating insights that came out of the numerous analyses penned in the aftermath of Barack Obama’s ascent to the US presidency was one by a writer who went down to Obama Sr’s village and did some math on the demographics.
The conclusion he reached was that if the younger Obama had stood for election there his prospects would have been bleak.
He found that no descendant of Ogelo had ever been elected MP in Alego Usonga.
That’s because the particular sub-clan that Barack Obama Sr came from happens to be a minority in the constituency.
As a result, the electoral math means that it’s exceedingly difficult to stage a credible run when you come from that particular subset in the area.
The story is replicated in Kendu Bay, Karachuonyo, which Obama’s grandfather left in a huff after a local elder dismissed him as a jadak (settler).
This tale of identity politics can be repeated almost everywhere else in the country. In many constituencies and counties, it is obvious what ethnic group or sub-clan will produce the next MP or governor.
In conducting analysis on the favourites for those positions, you simply start by whipping out a calculator and finding out which group is in the majority.
Nowhere is this malaise to be witnessed more vividly than on the national stage. What we’ll be holding on March 4, 2013 will not really be a democratic election.
Such a poll involves people considering the policies of a number of candidates and voting for the one that best reflects their economic interests or political sensibilities.
Nothing of the sort will happen in Kenya. What we’ll have instead is an ethnic headcount. Just listen to phone-ins, browse social media or wander into any restaurant where they are discussing politics.
You can tell the political position of virtually everyone that ventures an opinion depending on their last name, especially when they come from the “big tribes”.
These tribes have produced the top five candidates in all the elections since 1992: the Kikuyu, Luhya, Luo, Kalenjin and Kamba.
This is not an exclusively Kenyan problem. A columnist in an American newspaper opened his article this way after it became clear that Mitt Romney will be Obama’s challenger in November.
“This is an election year, which means all of us will spend the next few months carefully following the campaigns, finding out all we can about the candidates’ proposals and pondering what issues are most vital for the nation’s future…Just kidding. Most of us wouldn’t do that if you tortured us to within an inch of our lives.
“In fact, many won’t learn the most rudimentary facts about the people running for office and the policy issues they will have to address.
“Some of us will jump to believe any half-baked rumour or stereotype that confirms our prejudices…Some voters won’t even find out the names of the people running for many offices.
“In short, the citizenry as a whole will carry out what looks like a giant cartoon parody of democracy.”
The American election is a tribal slugfest between left and right, Democrats and Republicans. The difference between them and Kenya is that they can afford it. Politics is almost irrelevant to their economy.
Kenya can hardly afford to pick incompetent leaders because these are possibly the most important years of the nation’s life.
This is a fork in the road which will determine whether we’ll be a middle income nation in 2030 or a basket case of ethnic Bantustans.
What’s to be done? The optimist will say we need to carry out intensive civic education complete with social engineering in the school system to try and produce Kenyans proud of their ethnic identity but prouder still of being Kenyans.
The pessimists, and they are many, will say we should just give up the charade of being a democracy and, like the Lebanese, elect leaders of tribes who then pick the president in that ethnic council politely named the Senate.
