New Somali president must guard against beneficiaries of lawlessness
No one said it was going to be easy. Barely two days after he was elected president of the new post-transition Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud survived an assassination attempt, had to deal with Al-Shabaab and ponder over the his country’s battered economy.
The activist and academic, who is considered a political outsider, has taken charge of a country that is war-torn, fragmented and in the clutches of an economy that was, until recently, controlled by warlords and terrorists.
President Mohamud’s task has been made even more arduous by the many vested interests that would like Somalia to remain unstable so that they can profit from the chaos.
Included in this group are business and faction leaders (including leaders of Al-Shabaab) who took advantage of the lawlessness and monopolised certain sectors of the economy, the export of charcoal to Arab countries, for example.
Politicians, who have been robbing state coffers to the detriment of the Somali people, will need to be tamed. Shipping agents, local NGOs, middlemen and others providing services to aid agencies will have to change their modus operandi in a Somalia where there are governance institutions that function, and where there is less need for humanitarian assistance.
Aid agencies that have been raising money in the name of Somalia for more than two decades will have to identify another war-torn country for their fund-raising efforts.
European and Asian firms that have been dumping toxic waste in Somali waters for years will also have to look elsewhere. A peaceful Somalia will put a severe dent on the trade that supplies guns and ammunition to warring factions.
Some Somali analysts believe that the prospect of a stable and economically powerful State is threatening to neighbouring countries because it may foster ambitions for a Greater Somalia and lead to secession movements in North-Eastern Kenya and the Ogaden in Ethiopia.
One of Mohamud’s tasks, therefore, will be to manage Somalia’s neighbours in a way that does not ignite old fears or reinvigorate Somalia’s territorial ambitions.
The African Union forces will also have to show that their operations in Somalia are not motivated by the interests of individual governments. If the Kenyan forces’ foray into southern Somalia is seen to be opportunistic, for example, it may lead to a backlash, and diminish support for the new president.
Meanwhile, and perhaps more importantly, Somalia’s new president has to fix the country’s economy, which is largely unregulated. Despite the past 21 years of instability, Somalia has managed to export commodities such as livestock, charcoal and bananas.
Its huge diaspora has also played a critical role in underwriting various institutions and services, including universities, schools and hospitals, through remittances that are estimated to be worth between $1-$2 billion a year.
However, without regulation and taxation, there is no way that the government will operate without foreign assistance.
As I point out in the new book, Mogadishu Then and Now, Somalia’s economic potential is huge. The telecommunications sector alone has an estimated income of more than half a billion dollars a year. But the sector is not taxed, which is good for consumers (who pay among the lowest mobile phone charges in the world) but bad for government coffers.
Somalis are in need of virtually every service. Those in the diaspora who have demonstrated entrepreneurship and innovation in their host countries, can fill gaps in the services sector. African countries can also play a part in building the capacities of institutions.
The Kenya Revenue Authority, for instance, could train Somalis to create a viable tax collection system. Rwanda can teach Somalis the secrets to surviving – and prospering – after a civil war. Malawians can assist with agriculture, and so on.
But is Somalia ready for this? Many Somalis I have spoken to harbour an instinctive distrust of foreigners who they blame for benefiting from the chaos in their country.
Re-building trust, not just with foreigners (including fellow Africans), but between various factions and clans is going to be an uphill task, but one that the new president will have to undertake as a matter of priority.
