Why 2012 will be a pivotal year for Kenya

With the exception of the “Young Turks” and the “second liberators” – most famously Raila Odinga, Martha Karua, Paul Muite, Kivutha Kibwana, Gitobu Imanyara, James Orengo, Charity Ngilu, Kiraitu Murungi, Wangari Maathai, and Mukhisa Kituyi – most politicians today owe their careers to Mr Moi.

A dwindling species trace their start in politics to Mzee Kenyatta – the Burning Spear himself.

There is, of course, a new breed – notably Abdikadir Mohammed, Ababu Namwamba, Danson Mungatana, Cecily Mbarire and Mutava Musyimi – who come out of more independent milieus.

But the fact is that the Moi children are everywhere. There are more of them in PNU and ODM than any others.

Partly that’s why Mr Moi is untouchable. Although “Daddy” left the state in a shambles and should be the subject of inquiries and the truth commission, he enjoys virtual immunity – which is a flip side of the impunity of his regime. His children scream bloody murder if you touch a hair on his head.

In the last several years, Mr Moi has taken a more active political role, even campaigning for Kanu. Recently, he opined that Kanu should dominate the Rift Valley, which is reminiscent of the past when the province was a Kanu-only zone.

There is no doubt that the Moi political children outnumber and outgun all the others. Kenya’s political class looks like Moi Incorporated.

That machine – Moi Inc – may very well produce Kenya’s next president in 2012. Except for Mr Odinga and Ms Karua, all the other plausible contenders for the presidency – Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta, Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto and George Saitoti – are Mr Moi’s political flesh and blood.

That’s why 2012 will be a pivotal year – will Kenya break with the past, or keep the status quo?

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.