Why 2012 will be a pivotal year for Kenya

In the era of the Big Man in Africa, Daniel Toroitich arap Moi bestrode Kenya like a colossus. He ruled – actually dictated – for an unprecedented 24 years. It is a safe bet that no one will ever lord it over Kenya for that long, and without accountability.

The one lasting legacy of Mr Moi’s untrammelled power is the political progeny that he bequeathed the country. If Kenya’s political class were a corporation, then Mr Moi would be its unquestioned CEO.

More than Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, and certainly President Mwai Kibaki, virtually the entire political class is composed of Mr Moi’s political children.

There is no doubt that Mr Moi owed his omnipotence to the politics of the cold war which retarded the march of democracy. He rose to the pinnacle of one of the most promising African states and stayed there for an eternity.

Even today, two decades after the advent of multipartyism, Mr Moi still wields his political baton to great effect. How and why Kenya – a country full of modern sophisticates – continues to knuckle under the weight of an ex-cold war dictator is a fascinating story of patronage and patrimony.

By all accounts, Mr Moi was an unlikely occupant of the State House. The successor to the urbane and worldly Mr Kenyatta should most likely have come from the coterie of his “modern” aides.

Mr Kibaki was the most likely choice, but the hand of fate and differences among Mzee Kenyatta’s courtiers opened the door for Mr Moi. Although viewed as naïve, Mr Moi was nevertheless a cunning political animal.

It was he and Ronald Ngala who formed the settler-friendly Kadu which he later used to bargain for a seat in the Kenyatta Cabinet and edge Oginga Odinga out of the vice- presidency. This was a testament to his political guile.

Once in State House, Mr Moi took advantage of schisms within the governing Kikuyu elite to dismantle their political hegemony.

Unlike President Kenyatta, Mr Moi created a “rainbow” political class drawn from virtually every part of the country. He propped up minions everywhere and made them into power brokers overnight. He transformed virtual unknowns into political titans.

He elevated tribal leaders -- Mulu Mutisya, for instance -- into “statesmen”. Unheralded greenhorns acquired tremendous wealth and political clout.

Mr Moi became “popular” among most of Kenya’s tribal elites because, unlike Mr Kenyatta, he “spread” the spoils of power more widely.

What Mr Moi did was to use his unchallenged positions in Kanu and the state to incubate a political class of sycophants, opportunists and paper tigers.

He became a political godfather. Like Rome, all roads in Kenya led to him. Nothing of consequence happened without his blessing. He crushed without pity those who opposed him.

The man became a demigod. Even Mr Kibaki declared, in a rare moment of hyperbole, that challenging Kanu was akin to cutting down the mugumo (fig) tree with a razor blade.

Such was Mr Moi’s complete mastery of the political landscape that even learned men turned into unconscionable puppets around him.

President Moi had already manufactured his own political class by the time Kanu lost its political monopoly in 1992. But he didn’t stop there.

He continued to mint new politicians until the inconvenience of democracy forced him out of office in 2002. The politicians he birthed are legion.

With the exception of the “Young Turks” and the “second liberators” – most famously Raila Odinga, Martha Karua, Paul Muite, Kivutha Kibwana, Gitobu Imanyara, James Orengo, Charity Ngilu, Kiraitu Murungi, Wangari Maathai, and Mukhisa Kituyi – most politicians today owe their careers to Mr Moi.

A dwindling species trace their start in politics to Mzee Kenyatta – the Burning Spear himself.

There is, of course, a new breed – notably Abdikadir Mohammed, Ababu Namwamba, Danson Mungatana, Cecily Mbarire and Mutava Musyimi – who come out of more independent milieus.

But the fact is that the Moi children are everywhere. There are more of them in PNU and ODM than any others.

Partly that’s why Mr Moi is untouchable. Although “Daddy” left the state in a shambles and should be the subject of inquiries and the truth commission, he enjoys virtual immunity – which is a flip side of the impunity of his regime. His children scream bloody murder if you touch a hair on his head.

In the last several years, Mr Moi has taken a more active political role, even campaigning for Kanu. Recently, he opined that Kanu should dominate the Rift Valley, which is reminiscent of the past when the province was a Kanu-only zone.

There is no doubt that the Moi political children outnumber and outgun all the others. Kenya’s political class looks like Moi Incorporated.

That machine – Moi Inc – may very well produce Kenya’s next president in 2012. Except for Mr Odinga and Ms Karua, all the other plausible contenders for the presidency – Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta, Musalia Mudavadi, William Ruto and George Saitoti – are Mr Moi’s political flesh and blood.

That’s why 2012 will be a pivotal year – will Kenya break with the past, or keep the status quo?

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.