Kibaki, Raila are harmless and boring politicians

In the last few days we have had a flood of newspaper articles and TV commentaries on the 2nd anniversary of the Grand Coalition Government, that was formed after the election mayhem and madness that followed the disputed December 2007 elections.

At the centre of most of these commentaries, has been the issue of the relationship between the two principals, President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

It has been a troubled marriage, full of mistrust and suspicion some said. No, no, others opined, it has been a normal marriage with typical ups and downs.

So, just how bad or good has the Grand Coalition been for Kenya? To answer that question, we need to step outside Kenya and go a few years back.

Almost everywhere in the world, the president and vice president, or president and prime minister, or prime minister and deputy prime minister, rarely get along.

In Britain, not too long ago, we witnessed the sour relationship between Prime Minister Tony Blair, and his deputy (now prime minister) Gordon Brown.

Blair felt that Brown and his allies were hounding him out of office, and Brown’s camp thought Blair was clinging on to power.

But you can always trust us Africans to play out this game dramatically. In December 1995, the colourful Flt. Lt. Jerry Rawlings was still president of Ghana, as we all know.

But if you asked many non-Ghanaians who was his vice president, you will draw a blank. Well, he was a stubborn politician called Kow Arkaah.

If you think President Kibaki and PM don’t get along, then you have not heard about the relationship between Rawlings and Arkaah. It was very bad. It came to a head on December 28, 1995, during a cabinet meeting.

The two men were involved in an old-fashioned punch up. Chairs were turned over, and shirts torn.

If you compare Kibaki and Raila to Rawlings and Arkaah, the Kenyan duo are, contrary to common opinion, one of the world’s most boring coalition partners. They have not shouted at each other in public, we have seen no wagging of fingers, no drama.

Also, if you focus on Kibaki and Raila, you miss a more interesting picture — the state of Kenyan political space since President Kibaki first came to power in January 2003 at the head of the long-dead National Rainbow Coalition (Narc).

IN THE SPACE OF LESS THAN 10 YEA-rs, the country has witnessed the collapse of an independence monolith, the Kenya African National Union (Kanu) when Kibaki defeated its presidential candidate Mr Uhuru Kenyatta in December 2002.

That was the only time in East African history when the opposition defeated a ruling party, and the ruling party in turn handed over power peacefully.

Then, Narc quickly established itself as Africa’s most bickering party. In 2005, something unusual happened.

A faction of the government, led by PM Raila led a rebellion and opposed the President and his allies in the constitution referendum. They won, and were bundled out of government for their efforts.

Then, in December 2007, another election, a disagreement over the results, and violence. In that election, Kenyatta, Kibaki’s rival in 2002, was one of his main allies. And Raila, a staunch Kibaki supporter in 2002, was his main opponent.

Nearly 1,500 people died in post-election clashes. In February, a negotiated agreement shared power between Kibaki and Raila.

If you are interested in history, these events are truly amazing. In seven short years, Kenya has through what some countries needed more than 100 years to witness.

And, then, something else. In all this turbulence, political guerrilla war, agitation, and even incitement, Kenya did not have political prisoners. Even radical civil society activists get bail quickly.

This, in an Africa where some leaders still feed their opponents to the crocodiles, and have them tortured in secret dungeons.

My conclusion is that Kenya might, possibly, be the first Africa country to have reached the limits of civil politics. In other words, short of an extreme violation of the law, there is nothing you can say or do in the political “game”, that will get you in trouble.

On the other hand, common criminals and the corrupt too seem to be able to get away with anything. As a result, Kenya’s extreme civil politics is countered on the opposite hand by what critics consider to be “state failure”.

My take? It would seem from all this, the Grand Coalition has given us Africa’s first truly schizophrenic state.

cobbo@nation.co.ke