August presidential election is going to be emotional, hard and bitterly fought

We are going to witness an emotional, hard and bitterly fought presidential election.

I fear it may be fought and won on rant and cant about personality and not on sober and reasoned debate and analysis of issues. And that is because of Mr Raila Amolo Odinga. Why?

One, herewith the insightful words of the late Vice-President Kijana Wamalwa: Those who love him adore him so much they suffer from Railamania and those who hate him loathe him so much they suffer from Railaphobia. Railamaniacs and Railaphobics do not need facts to fight. Just mention Raila.

Two, there is no love lost between President Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto, and Mr Odinga.

SHIFTING BLAME

Last month, the President accused Mr Odinga of sparking the 2007 post-election violence and shifting blame to Mr Ruto.

Mr Odinga remains the most voluble and caustic critic of government as corrupt.

Three, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Raila’s father, family patriarch and leftist nationalist, famously pleaded with Kenyans in January of 1992 to make him president, even for one day.

They did not when they voted 11 months later. Jaramogi died in 1994, as I say, a hero who reigned but never ruled.

Family honour remains at stake. If Mr Odinga is not voted president at his fourth time of asking on August 8, he too, will go down in history as king-maker who never won himself the crown.

COVETED PRIZE

Standing between him and the coveted prize is President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Last, that the President is determined to deny Mr Odinga the one presidential term he craves, invariably, introduces family and historical sub-plots to the fierce rivalry between the two men.

Their fathers equally bitterly fought in the heady days following Kenya’s independence in 1963.

Founding President Jomo Kenyatta, a capitalist, brooked neither dissent nor criticism.

He scorched Jaramogi for launching the socialist Kenya People’s Union in 1966.

Kenyatta proscribed the party in 1969 and detained its top brass after he was shouted down in Kisumu.

NEVER RECOVERED

Jaramogi’s career never recovered but has been survived by his son’s. With his emergence as presidential torchbearer for the National Super Alliance (Nasa) on Thursday, the hardest part of making Mr Odinga Kenya’s fifth president and the first to unseat an incumbent just begun. Why so?

One, forever controversial, Mr Odinga comes with a huge baggage collected over 40 years of active political activity some of which the man himself will have forgotten and some he would rather not remember.

His foes will remember many and remind the electorate of most.

Two, Nasa’s strategists must also figure out how a 72-year-old man, who was branded analogue in 2013 when he was 68, will beat his conqueror of four years ago who is still in his 50s.

MORE SINNED AGAINST

The question is, are Mr Odinga’s best years demonstrably ahead of him or behind him?

Three, Mr Odinga has often been cast as a man more sinned against politically than sinning and as one who has sacrificed his best years and talents in the struggle to make Kenya a better place for all.

Critics, however, paint him as prone to disrupt and dismantle the status quo unless he owns it.

Four, because he has been in positions of leadership in political parties and government, there is a rich record that will be mined by his strategists and enemies alike.

Political actors such as lawyer Miguna Miguna, who have not only worked with and for Mr Odinga but also written books about the man, will be weighing in on this race.

REMAINS INTACT

Last, but not least, Mr Odinga’s vote bank remains intact and the keys to the vaults in Western Kenya safe in his pocket.

As was the case in 2013, Ukambani and the Coast should stay in his orbit. He will be competitive in Kenya’s leading cities and towns, except those in the heartlands of the governing Jubilee Party.

Therefore to win, Mr Odinga must increase his 2013 vote tally considerably, which means he must be voted for in regions and by demographics that did not even think of him in 2013.

He must turn the euphoria exhibited at public rallies into turnouts. In tight contests, turnouts tilt the balance and massive turnouts stump riggers.

The clincher for Mr Odinga must, therefore, lie in compelling messaging to drive debate away from personalities to issues, earn new converts and position Nasa as Kenya’s saviour from Jubilee’s shortfalls.

[email protected]