How to spot impending African election theft — from miles away

On August 27, the good central African nation of Gabon went to the polls. All the drama of an African election followed. Opposition leader Jean Ping declared himself the winner.

A day later the Interior Ministry (the Gabonese are not yet bothered with the appearances of an “independent” electoral commission) announced that the incumbent Ali Bongo Ondimba had won. Not by much, just 5,000 votes.

Violence erupted and even Parliament house was torched.

Now Ping has gone to court. No need taking bets. No court in Africa has ever overturned an election in which the incumbent was declared winner.
The African Union, has dispatched its chairman, Chadian president Idriss Deby, to deal with the dispute.

The polygamous Deby himself had his own election in April, in which he was re-elected for a fifth term. His rivals rejected it as rigged.

Maybe Bongo could have used some lessons about how to deal with Ping from Deby. Deby’s most serious opposition challenger, Ngarlejy Yorongar, was simply kicked off the ballot. End of story.

The Gabon election, like many others around Africa, have been presenting us with awkward issues and it is time to deal with them head on. If you were to sum them up in a single question, it would be, “are elections worth it in Africa?”

Yes, they are worth it. But there are usually several signs that they will not produce the most optimal outcomes, and you can even spot them from far, miles away.

•You know there is trouble when donors have to fund your polls and electoral commissions: In many parts of Africa, a good chunk of funding for elections and election bodies is from donors.

Not too many people think there is a big problem here. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a minister actually said that if donors refused to fund its very expensive election, Kinshasa would consider it a “violation of its sovereignty”.

Now, elections are not isolated. They are usually part of a country’s wider political, social, and economic fabric.

A competent and honest government, managing its economy in a reasonably sophisticated way, and that plans well and stewards its budget diligently, would in five years put away enough money to run an election.

Therefore, a government that is unable to do these things, and therefore needs donors to pay for its elections, cannot run a free and fair election. If it does, it will be accidental, not intrinsic.

•Election monitors: Countries (and international organisations) monitor others’ elections for various reasons, including to learn. But African elections are monitored primarily to prevent or catch vote fraud.

That is why election monitors, and their reports, are usually a big story in our polls.

HIGH RISKS OF FRAUD

Once monitors become essential to the credibility of a vote, you can almost be sure that the election will be stolen or will not be free for all.

•I have tried and not found the name of the chap who heads the election body in the UK and Canada. In fact in many settled democracies, an election passes without a single mention of the election commissioners and their chief.

Once you know the name of the boss of the commissioners, and they are holding media conferences every other day, prepare for a vote heist. It will not always come to pass, but the risks of fraud are high.

•Along with that, watch for things such as stories about the tender to print ballot papers, disputes about who will supply ballot boxes, and front page photographs of voting materials arriving at the airport.

Be very afraid. They are not good signs. Among other things, it tells you that in such a country elections are a high stakes affair, so incumbent presidents or parties will do everything to win them.

•A popular feature of voting day in Africa are the very long queues. Usually the argument made is that it shows how much the vote is important for people, and speaks to the passion with which they approach the task of electing their leaders.

Yes, the 1994 election in South Africa that marked the end of apartheid was a big deal and emotional experience, but long queues are usually a sign of incompetence.

It means the country has no early voting, does not have enough polling stations, that voting machines are malfunctioning and backing people up. Long queues have a bad habit of ending in a lot of tears once the counting starts.

The author is editor of Africa data visualiser Africapedia.com and explainer site Roguechiefs.com. Twitter@cobbo3.