Most voters have decided, this ruckus is just a yearlong ritual

The great jamborees in Nairobi and Mombasa on Saturday were well choreographed and entertaining but ultimately they count for nothing.

That’s the supreme irony of Kenyan politics. And the politicians are not to blame for it – the voters are.

However elaborate the presidential campaign put up by either the Jubilee Party or ODM and its affiliates in Cord, the fact remains that more than nine in 10 voters have already decided how they will vote.

The electioneering will be a massive waste of money (which is not exactly bad because it will be a sort of stimulus to the economy with hundreds of thousands of graphic designers, loud speaker vendors, transporters and professional hecklers) getting their hands on the politicians’ money.

Still, the fact is that these resources will make little difference especially in the presidential race.

A look at the vote tallies in the strongholds of the various candidates in past elections illustrates that Kenyans vote for the candidates with whom they share a first language in numbers that should only be witnessed in North Korea.

This is true even in referendums. The problem is amplified by the fact that most of the candidates and running mates and, of course, most voters will be from the five biggest ethnic groups, the Kikuyu, Luhya, Kalenjin, Luo and Kamba.

These numbers bear repeating. In the 2010 referendum, President Kibaki declared that he supported the constitution. His constituency voted solidly in favour, despite the strong opposition of the church in a part of the country where the church is especially deeply rooted.    

The outcome in Mathioya was 93 per cent for Yes, 7 per cent No. In the president’s Othaya constituency, the outcome was (92 per cent – 8 per cent in favour of Yes) and in Tetu it was (93 per cent – 7 per cent).

Prime Minister Raila Odinga declared that he favoured the draft charter, and Luo voters shared his enthusiasm.

The results were 99 per cent Yes in Rangwe, 1 per cent No, Ugenya (99 per cent – 1 per cent), Uriri (99 per cent – 1 per cent) and so it went on.

William Ruto, on the other hand, urged his constituents to vote No and they heeded his call in large numbers.

In Mosop, the results were 95 per cent No, 5 per cent Yes, Belgut (93 per cent – 7 per cent) and Konoin (94 per cent to 6 per cent).

INCREDIBLE RECORD

Compare this to South Africa. The African National Congress has amassed an incredible record in its time in power.

Since the party took power, it has built over 3.4 million houses, benefiting 16 million South Africans. In 1996, half of South Africans had no access to power and now that number has gone down to a quarter.

Around the same time, 2.4 million were receiving social grants and that number has gone up to 17 million. Eighty six per cent of South African households now have access to free water (although there are frequent complaints about the reliability of supply).

This is a remarkable record by any standards. Still, in recent municipal elections, the ANC was handed a humiliating defeat in the major urban centres.
South African voters in cities from Nelson Mandela Bay to Johannesburg to Pretoria turned against the liberation party. The Democratic Alliance, long seen as a party of the white minority, now controls those cities.  

This was a remarkable development. It showed what happens when voters decide on issues rather than kinship and blood ties.

South Africans just got fed up with the way Jacob Zuma has used power to enrich himself and his small circle of friends and become an embarrassment to the country with his endless scandals.

Democracy in Kenya will only achieve maturity when there is a significant slice of voters that can stand outside their ethnic group and make decisions at the ballot box based on the manifesto and record of the various candidates, especially those running for the presidency or governor.

The ANC will remain in power for a long time because of memories of the struggle and its solid support base in rural areas.

But urban voters sent them an important message and the surprise results in the urban mayoral elections have prompted serious soul searching within the party.

Politics in Kenya will only achieve similar levels of seriousness when voters stop voting solidly along ethnic lines.

Until then, the elaborate, well-financed campaigns by the Jubilee Party and the Orange Democratic Movement will just be a year-long carnival and an opportunity for the redistribution of the funds the politicians will splash.

[email protected] @mutigam