New security dilemmas as China spurs Africa’s rise

Workers in the process of making soft toys at a toy factory in Lianyungang, in eastern China's Jiangsu province on July 12, 2016. China surpassed the United States as the world’s largest economy in 2013. PHOTO | AFP

What you need to know:

  • China surpassed the United States as the world’s largest economy some time in 2013.
  • Certainly, this is not China’s first time at the helm of the world economic system.
  • China was the world’s largest economy before 1870 when it was overtaken by Great Britain — which, in turn, lost the perch to America in 1872.
  • China has projected itself as a “responsible stakeholder” that is reaffirming rather than disrupting the American-led international liberal order.

The white smoke is out: We now have a new economic superpower. China surpassed the United States as the world’s largest economy some time in 2013.

But America is still the world’s military power with immense “soft power” (human and social capabilities to shape world opinion).

The side-by-side existence of two superpowers — one military and Western (US), the other economic and Oriental (China) — is already undermining collective response to an increasing array of threats to international security.

The causes, dynamics and possible solutions to the new international security dilemmas in the wake of China’s rise elicited intensive debates among global opinion leaders, academic experts and policy thinkers who attended the Fifth World Peace Forum (WPF) in Beijing from July 16-17, 2016.

The monumental shift in the international economic order was long coming – it was never a question of if, but when.

Professor Hu Angang, one of China’s most influential public intellectuals and Director of the Centre for China Studies at Tsinghua University, had earlier predicted China’s rise to the helm in his book, China in 2020: A New Type of Superpower (2011).

Certainly, this is not China’s first time at the helm of the world economic system. According to historians, China was the world’s largest economy before 1870 when it was overtaken by Great Britain — which, in turn, lost the perch to America in 1872.

New China’s flourishing economy — without foreign aid and propelled by its own homegrown development model — carries vital lessons for Africa. Just four decades ago, China was an agrarian economy with only 18 per cent of its people living in urban areas and a per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of less than $200.

In 1980, its economy was one-tenth the size of the US, which produced three times as much as China by 2000.

China’s meteoric rise has changed all this. Today, its per capita GDP is close to $8,000 while 56 pc Chinese people now live in cities. In December 2014, the International Monetary Fund confirmed that Beijing’s economic output had reached $17.6 trillion, forcing America to second place with $17.4 trillion. China accounted for 16.5 pc of the world’s economy compared to 16.3 pc for the US.

China traded in more goods than any other power in 2015 while its economy contributed 25 pc of the world economic growth. Its outbound investments totalled $118 billion and a record 120 million Chinese travelled to other countries as tourists.

Beijing’s economic, military and population power (the correlates of the war composite index) has reached 20 pc of international power compared to 14 pc for the US.

Despite this triumph, China’s leaders and academics are not celebrating; not yet. Vice Premier Liu Yangdong, who opened the 5th WPF, characterised China as “the world’s second largest economy.” Other Chinese speakers described their nation variously as a “developing” and “middle power.”

Oriental modesty aside, with its world-class economy, 1.3 billion people, a nuclear stock and a seat in the United Nations Security Council, China is, by any measure, a superpower. But why have China’s power elite decided to avoid any rhetoric about their economic power?

Although China has lifted 600 million people out of poverty (contributing 70 pc of the world’s poverty-reduction efforts), it is far from being the world’s wealthiest nation. Some 55 million of its people are still poor and its per capita GDP was less than one-quarter that of America by 2014. “China has a long way to go,” noted Vice Premier Liu.

PEACEFUL DEVELOPMENT

China also has strategic reasons for not partying. The scale and speed of its growth has stoked fear and consternation in Washington and other Western capitals. Calming the West’s fears is a key plank of China’s new diplomacy. Since 2013, President Xi Jinping has popularised the concept of “peaceful rising”, proffering a “win-win” solution to global differences.

During the Sunnylands Retreat in California in January 2013, the Chinese leader tried to set America’s mind at rest that China is committed to a path of peaceful development that should not inexorably lead to superpower confrontation.

While the rise of Athens to replace Sparta in ancient Greece and the rise of Germany in 1870 led to wars, this should be avoided. Chinese scholars envision the path of peaceful transition that saw America replace Britain as superpower.

Accordingly, China has projected itself as a “responsible stakeholder” that is reaffirming rather than disrupting the American-led international liberal order. But the world is facing a resurgent geopolitics, which is hampering a common approach to growing threats to international security.

Speakers at the 5th WPF highlighted two salient examples of the failing international security system. One is the growing threat of terror attacks. Second is the contentious ruling by the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration that asserted Philippines’ territorial claims and denied China’s sovereignty over the volatile and energy-rich South China Sea.

This dark cloud has a silver lining for Africa. China’s rise has opened space for what pundits are proclaiming as an emerging Africa becoming a global powerhouse (Bright & Hruby, 2015). China’s entry has redeemed the image of Africa. In 2000, the Economist wrote Africa off as a “Hopeless Continent.” A decade later, in 2011, the magazine touted an “Africa rising.”

During last year’s China-Africa summit in South Africa, President Jinping unveiled China’s new industrialisation policy.

Besides adding value to African exports, this policy will more than double the number of Africa’s middle powers (the real champions of regional security) from four – South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria — to more than 10, including Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania. Africa has become assertive and influential more than ever before.

China and Africa face a creeping isolationism and protectionism. They should champion the deepening of economic inter-dependence, building institutions and a rules-based, just and equitable world order as the cornerstone of collective security and prosperity for all.

Prof Peter Kagwanja is the Chief Executive of Africa Policy Institute. This article draws from his remarks as a panellist on Africa and international security during the 5th World Peace Forum in Beijing, July 16-17, 2016.