Picking flagbearer heralds start of the journey. Nasa’s work is cut out for it

Nasa principals from left: Musalia Mudavadi, Raila Odinga, Isaac Ruto, Kalonzo Musyoka, and Moses Wetang'ula in a show of solidarity during a Nasa meeting at Bomas of Kenya on April 20, 2017. PHOTO | JEFF ANGOTE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Nasa’s presidential ticket should personify and project the totality of the alliance’s vision for Kenya.
  • It is Jubilee that is defining Nasa for Kenyans, with the jobs-centred coverage helping the reading, watching and listening public judge Nasa.

Before an airline takes possession of a newly acquired aeroplane from the manufacturer, or takes back one that has just undergone major reconditioning, the carrier will take the aircraft on a flight to test its performance according to a specified checklist.

This is called an acceptance flight. The checklist for the acceptance flight for Kenya’s space-evoking Nasa (National Super Alliance) consists in scrutiny of its definition for, and pitch to, Kenyans and its presidential flagbearer by the electorate.

Nasa’s presidential ticket should personify and project the totality of the alliance’s vision for Kenya.

It should sum up the best Nasa wants for Kenya’s social, political and economic development. The ticket, definition and pitch will make Nasa a winner or loser.

SHARE MINISTERIAL SEATS

It should, therefore, worry Nasa to no end that its coverage by the media centres on the post-election offices news outlets say it intends to create for its top brass; how its principals will share ministerial seats; that principals are haggling over who should be presidential flagbearer; or the shambles and chaos that mar events organised by affiliate parties.

It should be instructive for Nasa that President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto do not miss an opportunity to remind Kenyans that the governing party has already chosen its torchbearer for the 2022 presidential poll; that Nasa’s interest is grabbing power and not the welfare of Kenyans; and that the alliance is a rabble where Jubilee is a well-knit unit.

And Nasa should be concerned because as the clock ticks to the August 8 General Election, it is yet to define and differentiate itself from Jubilee.

In fact, it is Jubilee that is defining Nasa for Kenyans, with the jobs-centred coverage helping the reading, watching and listening public judge Nasa.

INTERNAL DISHARMONY

Jubilee is not interfering in Nasa’s internal affairs; it is taking advantage of its internal disharmony to define its rival negatively.

This does not mean that Jubilee is better organised than Nasa. The only difference between them is that one has power and the other wants that power.

It is much easier for Jubilee’s leadership to close ranks to protect and keep power than it is for Nasa’s to rally around one of their number in the bid for power.

Power binds Jubilee and fuels its campaign.

But pursuit of power could unite or, with a little help from Jubilee, plunder Nasa.

Divided and undecided, Nasa is an asset to Jubilee’s bid to retain power. United, rallied by and rallying around, a popular presidential flagbearer, Nasa portends a formidable opponent for Jubilee.

Which is why the question is asked, when will they name their flagbearer? The question should be why they don’t because they should have a long time ago.

AUTOMATIC CHOICE

This is why. The Orange Democratic Movement is persuaded its leader Raila Odinga is the automatic choice; Wiper Democratic Movement is sure its chief Kalonzo Musyoka is the man; and Amani National Congress does not doubt the man is its man Musalia Mudavadi.

If Nasa unveils its presidential ticket next week, then, the principals will have agreed, among other things, to sacrifice personal ambition for service of country; support the flagbearer physically and fiscally throughout the country and campaign; make one of them a winner; and not all of them or one of them can win it, but one for all and all for one is the winning formula.

Crucially, they will also have agreed that to win, Nasa must substantially increase the vote tally the losing Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) garnered in 2013.

TILTS THE BALANCE

That will only happen if the principals commit to ensuring that all their supporters will vote on August 8. In a tight poll, turn out tilts the balance. Massive turnouts thwart riggers.

As I say, it is the better prepared party that wins an election. Picking a presidential ticket only heralds the start of preparation, a complex and painstaking business, for a gruelling resources-gobbling enterprise.

ODM was prepared in 2007, but Cord was not as attuned in 2013. Nasa has lessons to learn from the two campaigns. Suppose Nasa fails to pick a flagbearer?

Nasa needs Plan B, principally to ensure that affiliate parties run independently with a view to forcing a second presidential vote.