Self-doubt about 2017 polls driving the Jubilee stance

There seemed to have been some movement on the IEBC matter last week when Opposition leaders Raila Odinga and Moses Wetang’ula went for a State House luncheon and Mr Odinga said President Uhuru Kenyatta had agreed to dialogue over electoral reforms.

Mr Wetang’ula was to tell the Senate the same day that they had “good but inconlusive” discussions.

But after the Madaraka Day show of might in Nakuru in which William Ruto, the Deputy President said there would be no dialogue outside the confines of the law, and the Opposition chiefs got a huge crowd of supporters to Uhuru Park, Nairobi, dialogue is unlikely to take place as envisaged by Cord.

The National Prayer Breakfast hosted by MPs on Friday gave Mr Kenyatta another platform to pour cold water on the last embers of a perceived deal that significantly reduced the political tension in the country while it lasted.

RESUMPTION OF HOSTILITIES

The resumption of hostilities means that Cord leaders will feel they have an even better reason to mobilise their supporters for the weekly Monday street protests.

The hardliners tag that the President, his Deputy and the opposition have effectively worn will disappoint the clergy, the business lobby, foreign envoys and others who have in recent days sought to bring the two sides to the negotiating table.

These groups have put up a strong case for dialogue, citing the threat of political turmoil and economic meltdown in the event of another disputed presidential election outcome.

The International Criminal Court was not only the glue that held the Jubilee coalition together but it was also their campaign platform for the 2013 elections.

With the collapse of the last of the ICC cases in April, the Jubilee leaders lost a key election weapon against their opponents. The need to re-energise the “tyranny of numbers” base explains why Nakuru hosted the so-called ICC thanksgiving meeting and this year’s national Madaraka Day celebrations.

But some political analysts have crunched the numbers in a bid to demonstrate that the “tyranny of numbers” narrative was most likely a myth created to pre-empt agitation for a run-off in the last presidential election. Then there is the recent fishing expedition to Opposition strongholds.

For instance, the defeat suffered by the Jubilee candidate in the Malindi by-election in March in spite of the President governing from the coast for two weeks and handing out title deeds showed the age-old anti-establishment grievances are far from addressed. The Sh2 billion Mumias bailout didn’t excite Western much, and the unresolved murder of Jacob Juma is sure to get mentions in future campaign speeches there.

Whoever expects UhuRuto to let go of the IEBC easily simply doesn’t appreciate the power of self-doubt.

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