Tanzania’s choiceless election has serious implications in the region

Elections provide an opportunity for people to decide and vote for those they want to represent them in a public office.

Voting is an opportunity for people to make choices on who will lead them.

In elections, people often make choices based on which candidates they think best represents their interests.

They choose and vote for candidates who they think will help them achieve positive change in the society.

This is why the principle of regular, free, fair, and open elections is embedded in electoral practices around the world.

And this is also why people violently oppose rigged election results.

The act of rigging, alone, represents an act of undermining people’s interests and choices.

People become violent because rigging prevents the dreams of a majority from becoming true.

On Sunday, Tanzanian voters are trooping to polling stations to vote for various candidates.

But the presidential election has attracted relatively more international attention than ever in Tanzania’s electoral history.

The opposition itself is crying foul — they think the ruling party will rig.

ACCIDENT PRODUCT

The election is attracting attention because the voters are voting in the closest ever election and also because Sunday’s poll represents the most choiceless election in the history of Tanzania.

It is also an election whose results will determine how the East African Community member states will conduct business with Tanzania as demonstrated below.

This election presents a “choiceless preference” for voters. There are two equally strong candidates representing choices of a flawed process.

There is John Pombe Magufuli of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party.

And there is Edward Lowassa representing a coalition of four main opposition political parties under UKAWA ( Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi – Coalition for People’s Constitution).

The two candidates came to represent their respective political parties through an accident in the party nomination process.

They are both a product of poor internal democracy in their respective parties. They are not a product of people’s faith and efforts. This is why.

John Magufuli is captured by vested interests within CCM - he is a product of an accident within CCM.

Mr Magufuli became a candidate because some powerful groups within CCM were worried about the possibility of losing their hold and influence in the party.

They wanted someone they can hold around; he is not his own man.

Importantly, Mr Magufuli became a candidate because the incumbent President Jakaya Kikwete, and former President Benjamin Mkapa, did not prefer Mr Lowassa, the former Prime Minister, to be the CCM candidate.

They had to manipulate the system within CCM to block Mr Lowassa.

TIT-FOR-TAT STRATEGY
They had to lock out Mr Lowassa because he had a grudge against some of the powerful groups within the party.

He lost his prime minister position because of a corruption scandal — not the first one — around 2008.

He maintained that there were ‘real owners’ of the corruption scandal he was accused of being involved in.

To lock out Mr Lowassa, they had to borrow from (Kenya’s) Kanu strategies and tactics of the 1990s.

President Kikwete and others who ‘own CCM’ allegedly manipulated the Ethics and Security Committee, and later, the Central Committee, to vet out Mr Lowassa.

The committee did not pass many of the candidates who had shown interest in standing for presidency.

The committee vetted out Mr Lowassa and more than 30 candidates. Only five candidates passed this stage.

Their names were passed to the National Executive Committee for final balloting within CCM.

Mr Lowassa allegedly used his popularity to manipulate the National Executive Committee to lock out a candidate who the owners of CCM preferred.

Through this ‘tit-for-tat’ strategy, Mr Magufuli emerged as a compromise candidate. He was least known.

Mr Magufuli is also not corrupt — at least not in records of the main corruption scandals that characterise present day Tanzania.

SOCIAL ILLS

This choice pulled the rug from under the opposition who were tainting CCM as corrupt and presenting themselves as the champion of anti-corruption groups.

Mr Magufuli was picked through this fatal accident within CCM.

Mr Edward Lowassa represents all ills Tanzania would like to address.

Mr Lowassa is also a product of another accident within the opposition alliance.

He has been a popular household name for many reasons including his riches, whose origin he has never explained.

He defected to the opposition coalition, UKAWA, after the owners of CCM locked him out.

UKAWA immediately appointed him their presidential candidate. By doing so, UKAWA locked out other candidates who were always in the opposition.

All of a sudden Mr Lowassa came in and took over the opposition. Mr Lowassa simply overrun and crowded them out from their own space.

This undermined internal democracy within UKAWA. It also made it difficult for the opposition to use the anti-corruption argument as a platform. On this they lost.

In the end both parties, CCM and UKAWA, look alike. They hate internal democracy. They have real owners. Tanzania voters actually do not own these two parties.

Popular gossip in Dar es Salaam often point to Mr Lowassa as representing the corrupt elements in Tanzania’s economy and politics.

In fact, the late President Mwalimu Nyerere is said to have admonished him for his riches and appetite to lead Tanzania.

BITTER RIVALRY
Nyerere allegedly tongue lashed him for greed. He is said to have called him and told him as follows: wewe kijana una pesa nyingi sana…unataka kwenda ikulu …na ikulu sio nyumba ya biashara…hii pesa yako umetoa wapi? (young man, I understand you have a lot of money … you want to be President, but State House is not a commercial place?

Where did you get your money from?

That was in 1995. In 2005 he declined to stand for presidency and supported President Kikwete.

Apparently, there was a gentleman’s agreement that President Kikwete would back him in 2015.

Mr Kikwete and other “owners” of the party reneged on this understanding. They did so yet he was one of the owners of the party.

This explains the bitter rivalry between both parties. Owners of the CCM Inc. have fallen out.

To agree to have Mr Lowassa as a candidate, UKAWA burnt into ashes the moral platform on which the coalition alliance had built its campaigns.

They had taken Tanzania towards a wrong direction.

These internal dynamics and tensions explain why the election is the closest ever.

It is about two and the same owners over whom voters do not have preference. It is about two representatives of owners of CCM fighting for the control of Tanzania.

Both candidates have been pulling large crowds in their rallies.

THE CONSEQUENCES

These crowds have an ethnic and regional dimension implying a new challenge in Tanzania’s political life.

Mr Lowassa is a Maasai from north Tanzania. He is popular among the youth. He is popular in the north and some southern regions.

Mr Magufuli is from the north east. He is of course least known in Tanzania and therefore is riding on the crest of CCM.

The party is not popular in urban areas. This is common across Africa; urban groups are generally anti-status quo.

They want immediate and radical changes on their lives. Service delivery is also the most problematic in urban areas. They want efficient services.

The most important consequence of the outcome will be on Kenya.

Mr Magufuli represents the forces within CCM who have been fighting Kenya in the region.

They would like to see less of Kenya in Tanzania. He will certainly not join the ‘coalition of the willing’ any time soon — the owners of CCM will not allow him.

He will continue the legacy of Mr Kikwete. If he wins, it is advisable for Kenyan traders to be on look out, daily, for decrees seeking to isolate them. He will be more open to China than EAC trade.

Mr Lowassa represents forces that are similar to Kenya’s corrupt elites. Questions are being raised about his campaign finances.

There are those who fear this is coming from corruption cartels in the region.

There are also stories that the corrupt elites in Tanzania have held him hostage.

If he wins, he will certainly provide a good opportunity for business with Kenya’s corrupt business and political elites. They will have a comfortable bedfellow across the border.