Is Ababu Namwamba the new Agwambo in the Raila succession?

It is a shame that the ODM party’s national delegates conference last Friday was defined by that single moment when about five men in suits emerged to kick and overturn ballot boxes, bringing the parley to a disgraceful end. (READ: ODM's day of shame)

You can safely bet that the latest movie-ready scene from Kasarani’s political theatre will, in the coming days, dominate the headlines with soundtrack and story lines weaved around all manner of conspiracy theories.

What is likely to be lost in the drama is the more substantive story about the clash of ideas and personalities in the run-up to Kasarani that has historically characterised the party’s traditional political constituency and the intrigues of the Raila succession.

The ethnic character of the core support for parties in Kenya aside, ODM is still the closest to a formidable social democratic movement you can get around.

Its manifesto is largely a copy-and-paste piece of work, with a loose ideology around social justice, equity and human rights lifted straight from the pamphlets of past political organisations led or inspired by Jaramogi Oginga Odinga – be it KPU, Ford-Kenya, NDP, LDP or ODM.

That explains, for instance, its mass attraction among marginalised communities and groups outside its ethnic stronghold and the stranglehold on its leadership by Jaramogi’s political orphans or students. (READ: Don't hold another election, ODM delegates say)

BRAVE AND AGGRESSIVE LEADERS

Due to their sense of exclusion from the social and economic life by successive ethnic hegemonies in government, the masses in the Jaramogi parties, have naturally tended to prefer brave and aggressive leaders to the laidback or elitist types.

The classic story of how Raila Odinga, the man nicknamed ‘Agwambo’, beat the perceived heirs to Jaramogi’s political throne like Kijana Wamalwa, James Orengo and Anyang’ Nyong’o in the mid 1990s still rings true.

Like Kasarani on Friday, the battle of supremacy was settled in a dramatic style during Ford-Kenya’s abortive national delegates conference in Thika Stadium in 1995. Indeed Kasarani was a replay of Thika 1995, minus the flying stones, the axe-wielding and the crouching under tables.

With Mr Odinga not facing serious opposition as party leader yet, the chief protagonists in the Kasarani showdown were Ababu Namwamba – the youthful and energetic Budalang’i MP nicknamed Jenerali (the General) by party fans – and Agnes Zani, the mild-mannered nominated Senator and former sociology lecturer.

The mood on the campaign trail and at Kasarani appeared to suggest that a majority of the party faithful see a bit more of Agwambo in Jenerali than in Dr Zani, who is believed to have the backing of the conservative wing of the party.

The original story to this sequel ended with the intellectual and conservative wing of Ford-Kenya coalescing around Mr Wamalwa winning the battle, mainly through legal manoeuvres, and retaining the party. But by running away with the people, Agwambo no doubt won the war. Will fortune favour the brave in the ODM battle as well?

Otieno Otieno is chief sub-editor, Business Daily. Twitter @otienootieno. [email protected]