All eyes on France over presidential poll

All eyes are now on France as it goes to the polls. The first round of the presidential election takes place on April 23.

The runoff is scheduled for May 7. The stakes are high. France will have a new president, the third in 10 years.

The incumbent, Mr François Hollande, is stepping down after only five years, on the back of sagging approval ratings. The interest in the French elections is understandable.

Geo-politically, the elections are happening at a pivotal moment.

RIGHT WING LEADERS

Mr Donald Trump, an idiosyncratic and erratic man was elected President of the United States.

The Trump presidency is showing signs of lessening engagement with the rest of the world, with the exception of trade wars with China.

Mr Trump also looks set for a long drawn battle with the United States Judiciary on his controversial decrees.

His government seems not to have a coherent foreign policy. On the other hand, Europe is going through an uncertain period, grappling with the rise of strident and extremist right wing politicians shaking up the social order.

The Brexit vote is likely to keep an increasingly insular Britain busy negotiating favourable exit terms.

This leaves France and Germany, the two leading European powerhouses as the center of interest; economically and politically.

Of the two, France will hog much of that interest. France is also more likely to step in and provide leadership where the US falters and an uncertain Europe dithers.

GLOBALISATION

This may echo 2003 during the Iraq war crisis when France took global leadership in putting up a strong case against it.

In the end, its stance became vindicated. But just like the rest of Europe, France has its own share of unease.

The Far Right’s Marine Le Pen is enjoying favourable ratings, hoping to upstage her rivals and repeat her father Jean Marie Le Pen’s 2002 feat, which saw him qualify for the second round of presidential elections. But that is where it ended.

Ms Le Pen, like her father, will not win the elections. The French are well-versed with stepping back from the brink.

Still, Ms Le Pen’s favourable ratings are an indication of disaffection of the French citizenry with established and politically correct politics.

Globally, France is on a resurgence. After an initially conflicting stance on globalisation, France is now stamping its mark abroad, its companies establishing a presence even here in Kenya, thanks to economic diplomacy.

Its education system has become more attractive and open.

FRANCE'S CLOUT

French diplomacy has grown ever more perceptive, opting to rely on the reality on the ground and no longer exclusively on its perceived version of reality.

A combination of economic and politico-diplomatic pragmatism abroad will likely increase France’s clout.

Whatever the outcome of French elections, the incoming leadership is likely to be led by the prevailing global situation.

France is a country that traditionally does not shy away from providing leadership globally.

That tradition will hold. What is still unclear is the foreign policy of the incoming regime, the third in a decade.

Will the incoming leadership spell a new start, continuity or show ingenuity in the face of global politics and economics?

After two presidents in a decade, prevailing global conditions, it is normal to be expectant about what the new leadership portends.

Mr Macharia is a Nairobi based French-English translator and [email protected]