August 8 poll results will have big effect on race for top seat in 2022

President Uhuru Kenyatta (left) and his deputy William Ruto address a rally at Kapenguria in West Pokot on July 27, 2017. If Uhuru Kenyatta is sworn in as President, William Ruto will be a firm favourite for 2022. PHOTO | CHARLES KIMANI | DPPS

What you need to know:

  • In cobbling up the Jubilee Party, DP Ruto he has gotten a significant number of Jubilee candidates directly loyal to him.
  • Some Mt Kenya elites believe they can “handle” Mr Ruto if Mr Kenyatta retains power.

Most of us are squarely focused on the August 8 elections.

But, perhaps, we should spare a moment to think how this year’s election could affect the presidential elections in 2022.

Pollsters tell us that it is a close race between candidates Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta.

WILLIAM RUTO

It may well be, but that is doubtful, given the ethnic way we vote, and especially if the IEBC and the State don’t interfere with our votes.

Nevertheless, let us assume that the election could go either way.

If Uhuru Kenyatta is sworn in as President, William Ruto will be a firm favourite for 2022.

JUBILEE

No other politician has used these elections to position himself for 2022 in the ways he has.

In cobbling up the Jubilee Party, he has gotten a significant number of Jubilee candidates directly loyal to him.

Many politicians from Jubilee strongholds in the Mt Kenya and Rift Valley regions who have expressed reservations about him are now independents or in smaller parties.

REWARD

In the Rift Valley, he is actively de-campaigning them, as Gideon Moi can attest.

The net effect is that almost nothing — humanely — can stop William Ruto getting the Jubilee ticket, especially as he will use his State office to reward sycophants, or punish anyone not towing his line.

With his well-known work ethic, especially compared to Uhuru Kenyatta’s “hands off, eyes off, ears off and everything off” approach, he will be difficult to dislodge.

CORRUPTION
Yet, there is no one as divisive in Kenyan politics. Even in Opposition strongholds, ordinary people often say they have no problem with Mr Kenyatta; it is Mr Ruto they can’t stand.

With the departure of Anne Waiguru from power, Mr Ruto alone is seen as the face of arrogance, intolerance and naked accumulation of wealth of this regime.

He is what Mbiyu Koinange and Nicolas Biwott were in the first Kenyatta and Moi regimes respectively; and what Chris Murungaru symbolised in the Kibaki regime.

CONTROL RUTO
Some Mt Kenya elites believe they can “handle” Mr Ruto if Mr Kenyatta retains power.

They should remember the mid-1970s when their predecessors thought they could handle Daniel arap Moi.

The story is told that as President Jomo Kenyatta’s health worsened, the Kiambu mafia decided to control his succession.

SUCCESSION

They were aware that they were reviled and mistrusted across the country and knew that their wealth and prestige would falter if they lost access to the levers of power and the State economy.

They thus came up with the “Change the Constitution” idea, meant to change the almost automatic succession of the Vice-President.

They went around holding rallies to convince Kenyans.

MOI PRESIDENCY

Predictably, the non-Kiambu elite, including non-Kiambu Gikuyu, were apprehensive of these moves, seeing them as a way to embed the presidency exclusively in Kiambu.

To cut a long story short, eventually the Kikuyu elite agreed that they would “allow” Mr Moi to ascend to power but maintain him as a figurehead.

We all know how that worked out, especially after Mr Moi used the 1982 coup attempt to devastating effect.

NASA
At the same time, a Raila Odinga loss will leave a huge vacuum in the Opposition space that he has bestrode like a colossus.

It could well be that Musalia Mudavadi or Kalonzo Musyoka could surprise us — like Mwai Kibaki did between 1997-2002 — and hold the Opposition sufficiently together.

Or we could see the rise of alternative Opposition leaders such as Hassan Joho, Isaac Ruto, Peter Munya or Martha Karua, if they win their gubernatorial seats. But their task will be daunting.

STATE POWER
On the other hand, a Raila Odinga win will open up 2022 dramatically as he will serve only one term, and in ways this country has been seeking since 1992.

This almost happened in 2002 before Mwai Kibaki reneged on his one-term gentleman’s agreement.

ONE TERM

Without State power, William Ruto will need to battle ferociously to control Jubilee and he can expect serious challenges and splits, with less divisive personalities possibly emerging from Jubilee strongholds.

If Nasa keeps to their collegiate presidency agreement and agree to a one-term system after Mr Odinga exits, and also grow the political and democratic space as they have sworn, the country may well be reborn.

Maina Kiai is a human rights activist and co-director at InformAction. [email protected]