Can Ngilu survive the storm over corruption?

Water Minister Charity Ngilu, the fierce lioness of Ukambani politics, is on the ropes.

Like the proverbial cat, the lady with nine lives may be on her last. But my crystal ball tells me that it is way too early to write Mrs Ngilu off.

In the past, she has confounded her detractors by coming back from the dead. Even so, she has never faced the political death-trap like the one swirling around her now. Kenya is thirsty for the blood of long-serving politicians.

A fever is sweeping over the land. The anti-corruption maelstrom will fell many political titans.

My crystal ball tells me that whether Mrs Ngilu — once a reformer with sterling credentials — survives will depend on the seriousness of the corruption allegations against her.

Mrs Ngilu, an ODM Pentagon member, has been accused of two sins. The first was that she had “favoured” Ukambani with boreholes.

This accusation could be excused — or at least explained away — because everyone knows many parts of Ukambani desperately need water.

But the second allegation — that the minister had corruptly steered questionable deals to companies owned by her relatives — could be politically deadly.

The damning allegations concern at least four companies owned by Mrs Ngilu’s relatives and raise serious questions of nepotism, favouritism, and conflict of interest.

If proved, such allegations could terminate the meteoric career of the pioneer woman politician. Mrs Ngilu is one of the hardest working public servants, and I hope that none of this is true.

But I must say that Mrs Ngilu’s silence does not help matters. Legally, there is nothing wrong per se with a relative doing business with a ministry run by a kin. However, there must be complete probity between the relative and the kin to avoid even the appearance of nepotism.

Mrs Ngilu must completely recluse herself from such deals or be entirely unaware of them. Nor can anyone in her ministry act as her proxy. Did the relatives get the deals because of Mrs Ngilu, even though she was unaware of them?

The minister would not be culpable in this case, but she must terminate the deals and sanction the officials responsible once she is made aware.

But all of this is very tortured. That’s why relatives should not do business with a ministry run by a kin. It’s virtually impossible to erect a complete firewall. And how do we stop an underling from granting the relative a deal as a “favour” to the minister?

Although the law doesn’t strictly require it, I think business relatives ought to stay away from ministries run by their kith and kin. Otherwise both will come to grief in the court of public opinion, if not the court of law.

Why undermine public confidence in the state and sully the reputation of those you love? For heaven’s sake, go do business with another ministry!

Mrs Ngilu is not a run-of-the-mill politician. In 1992, she went against the grain on a DP ticket in Kitui Central and felled Minister George Ndoto, a Kanu stalwart.

In 1997, she became the first and only woman in Kenya’s history to run a plausible presidential campaign. She placed a respectable fifth behind four men – Daniel arap Moi, Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga and Michael Kijana Wamalwa.

That was no mean feat. In 2002, she was a key pillar of the Narc coalition that booted Kanu out of power. In 2007, she was a major player in ODM, and stopped Kalonzo Musyoka’s ODM-K from sweeping Ukambani. Mrs Ngilu, along with Gichugu MP Martha Karua, is the leading female politician.

Mrs Ngilu is an icon of Kenyan politics. She valiantly fought for many of the rights Kenyans enjoy today. This is not to say that we should look the other way if she has committed a wrong. Nor is it to apply double standards.

If proper investigations establish guilt, then Mrs Ngilu must be sanctioned. But her political enemies should take a deep breath and let the law take its course. I know that PM Raila Odinga caught flak for appearing to defend Mrs Ngilu.

He should take a page from President Kibaki’s book. The man from Othaya is famous for letting his allies “fry in their own fat”.

The bigger question facing Mrs Ngilu is whether she has a political future in the new dispensation. Will this alleged scandal “politically finish” her? Suppose she is not “found guilty” but questions linger about her credibility?

What if no laws were broken but it is established that relatives indeed benefited in a morally – though not legally – questionable manner? What lasting damage will that do to one of the first ladies of Kenyan politics?

Will we ever look at her the same way again? But the reverse is also true. Are we capable of forgiving those who have served us with devotion? If she is found culpable, we will be big enough to give her a second chance?

Mrs Ngilu, like others in the political class, faces a daunting task in finding a niche under the new dispensation. I don’t think she will be in line to be a cabinet secretary. But she could run for county governor, senator, or MP. But she must first decide which of those befits her stature.

She will not face this quandary alone. No one knows — for sure — what the pecking order of those offices will be. The hierarchy will “evolve” over time.

But Mrs Ngilu must first deal with the barrel of the gun facing her now. Only then will she be able to worry about 2012.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.