What are Cord’s chances in referendum battle?
What you need to know:
- Premium: Supporters of the Cord referendum call put a premium on the political strengths and role their leader Raila played in defeating draft constitution during Kibaki’s presidency.
- It was not a policy position of the coalition that the country and the people of Kenya need to amend their constitution.
As the call for a referendum to amend the constitution gathers pace, this column — in the next three weeks — will look into the strength, strategy and weaknesses of the three principal players vis-a-vis the referendum call.
The articles will give readers a perspective and insight into the process, the players and a projection into the end game.
The three players are the Cord coalition, the government of President Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto and the Council of Governors.
Today, we begin with Cord which kicked off the process and portrays itself as the main force behind the referendum call.
SPUR OF THE MOMENT
Cord kicked off the call for a referendum from a position of multiple weaknesses.
It is not a secret that the entire process was announced on the spur of the moment.
It was not a policy position of the coalition that the country and the people of Kenya need to amend their constitution.
The call for a referendum did not go through the various policy and political structures of the coalition.
That is why the coalition has difficulties persuading Kenyans that the call is not a whimsical personal gratification or a matter of settling personal scores.
Supporters of the Cord referendum call put a premium on the political strengths and the role their leader, Raila Odinga, played in defeating the draft constitution during Mwai Kibaki’s presidency.
However, this is a weakness on the part of the Cord coalition.
Uhuru Kenyatta is not Mwai Kibaki and William Ruto is a strong political animal when Raila is on the other side. Kibaki was a rare political leader with a unique political style.
He achieved a lot and left his unique legacy. He was the very antithesis of Raila’s unpredictable and brash brand of politics.
On the other hand, Uhuru and Ruto will match Raila’s every step. The pair of Uhuru and Ruto have the added advantage of being the President and Deputy President in control over all levers of government.
EXPENSIVE ENTERPRISE
The third weakness the Cord coalition faces is the lack of resources. Kenyan politics is a very expensive enterprise.
The logistics involved in an exercise like a referendum can bankrupt our average politician.
Of the three Cord principals, only Raila has the personal fortune to underwrite the expenses of a referendum.
But Raila is not a leader known for his personal generosity.
On two occasions, his refusal to open the vaults to his personal fortune cost him dearly in presidential elections.
So, who will fund the referendum for Cord? Cord’s taps will run dry quickly, their helicopters will be grounded and the absence of a wealth benefactor will be critical in the success or failure of the referendum.
The fourth weakness is that Cord wrongly thinks that the war between the government and Council of Governors will not be resolved.
Creating political affinity between Cord and the Council of Governors has been a bright strategy. But the governors know too well that Cord senators like Boni Khalwale and Moses Wetang’ula played a stellar role in the attempt by the Senate to kill devolution in its infancy.
There is a very good chance that the government and the Council of Governors will reach an agreement on the issues that divide them and leave the referendum call to Cord alone.
The fifth weakness is that the people of Kenya are not persuaded by the arguments advanced by Cord that there is a national imperative to amend the constitution.
Here we have two groups of Kenyans. Those who allow their tribal chiefs to speak and make decisions for them and rational and objective Kenyans who speak and make decisions for themselves.
In the latter category, we are talking about millions of Kenyans who are unpersuaded by Cord’s call for a referendum.
With such sceptical Kenyans, Raila and Cord stand little chance to successfully push the referendum call.
The sixth weakness is the tribal arithmetic of Kenyan politics. In last year’s elections, Kenyans voted along certain tribal patterns. Raila and Cord lost.
There is nothing to show that their political fortunes have changed. If anything, it looks like they have lost regions like Coast to the Deputy President’s party.
Senior Counsel Ahmednasir Abdullahi is the publisher, Nairobi Law Monthly [email protected]
