Could Raila look ‘east’ for his running mate?

The 2012 election will be more like jazz, and less hip-hop. It will require delicate and calculated steps, not the stormy heat of passion.

The presidential candidate who best massages the electorate will take home the bride. The reason is that Kenyans are in no mood for an apocalyptic repeat of the 2007 elections.

You can take this to the bank – Kenya’s fledgling democracy will take a leap of maturity in the next elections. But this won’t happen unless the leading presidential candidates choose their running mates very – very – wisely.

That’s why I think PM Raila Odinga could surprise pundits by picking former Kabete MP Paul Muite as his running mate. It makes lots of sense, if you think about it.

There are many reasons why Mr Odinga may go for Mr Muite. Mr Odinga needs to assure the “east” that he’s a “national” candidate who’ll govern from the “centre”. I know this logic will immediately throw many Luhyas into a fit of rage.

They will ask, why dump Local Government minister Musalia Mudavadi? That’s a good point, except it won’t wash geopolitically. Mr Mudavadi would make a great running mate.

I personally think highly of him. But he’d politically leave the ticket imbalanced. Kenya isn’t “mature enough” to accept a President and Deputy President from the same region. That’s why Mr Mudavadi – a “westerner” – must be sacrificed for an “easterner”. This opens the door for Mr Muite.

Mr Odinga can be strong-headed, and reject my advice. He may feel there’s no way he could hold onto the Luhya vote if he passes Mr Mudavadi over. He could give PNU Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa an opportunity to split the Luhya vote.

I acknowledge this is a risk, but Mr Odinga cannot be seen to throw Mr Mudavadi under the bus. That’s why he must come up with a plausible strategy to appease the Luhya or risk losing them, and Mr Mudavadi.

After all, Mr Mudavadi has stood by him. The only salvation is to stand Mr Mudavadi for the Governor of Nairobi; the most powerful in the country. That may quell a Luhya rebellion against ODM. Mr Odinga has been at pains to assure “easterners” in the Mt Kenya region that he wouldn’t take revenge on them.

But many in Gema and the Kamba communities think talk is cheap. The Gema groups haven’t voted for anyone else but their own since independence. Can Mr Odinga be the first? He might sway them by picking one of them, or an “easterner” they can trust.

Her own woman

Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta is out because PNU and ODM won’t come together. Mr Kenyatta may also be bound for The Hague. Gichugu MP Martha Karua would make a great running mate, but she won’t take it. She’s her own woman. Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth is intriguing, but lacks gravitas.

VP Kalonzo Musyoka would be a plausible “easterner” but there’s too much bile between himself and Mr Odinga. Gachoka MP Mutava Musyimi has the credentials and the right “ethnic profile” but something just isn’t right – he’s been unable to recapture his Ufungamano charisma. This doesn’t leave Mr Odinga with a lot of choices.

He could go for a respected “easterner” who’s a professional or a technocrat. But there’s no obvious choice. Perhaps Mandera Central MP Abdukadir Mohamed would make sense. Mr Muite has the potential to rally the Kikuyu behind Mr Odinga in the absence of Mr Kenyatta’s candidacy. Gema might back Mr Muite for Deputy President under Mr Odinga, rather than go with Ms Karua for President.

There would be a “poetic romance” to an Odinga-Muite ticket. Remember that Mr Muite was Ford-Kenya’s vice-chair under the opposition great Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the PM’s father.

Perhaps Mr Muite can finish with PM Odinga the unfinished journey that he started with the late Jaramogi. As Young Turks, Mr Odinga and Mr Muite fought valiantly for the reforms Kenyans enjoy today.

Ford – until it was torn asunder by tribal and personal feuds between Mr Odinga and his opposition counterpart Kenneth Matiba – gave hope that Kenya could overcome ethnic animosities. Perhaps PM Odinga and Mr Muite can rekindle that hope and take us back to the future. Perhaps the Young Turks will come together again and finish what they started.

I believe there are some historical demons that must be slain for Kenya to cohere as a nation. I know there are many, but one of the most enduring is the Kikuyu-Luo schism. Mzee Kenyatta and Jaramogi started this “family feud”. It was escalated by the assassination of the charismatic Tom Mboya.

President Mwai Kibaki’s disputed victory over Mr Odinga – and the violent aftermath of the 2007 elections – confirmed the worst myths on both sides.

The disagreements in the rickety coalition government since then have often taken Kikuyu-Luo rivalries.

Free the country

Kenyans have never seen Luos and Kikuyus work together amicably at the pinnacle of the State. A fruitful Odinga-Muite combo might free the country from that demon.

The structure of the new Constitution is not friendly to ethnic politics. That’s good. But it’s also a double-edged sword. It only creates two top spots and does away with a “political” Cabinet. That means “ethnic balancing” – which the Constitution demands – will have to be done smartly.

This means that in choosing running mates, presidential candidates should think combos of male-female, female-male, east/west, west/east, Muslim/Christian, younger/older, and other cleavages.

Ideology and chemistry are critical, but the winning team should inspire “national” confidence and project reformist solidity. That’s why I think Mr Muite should run with Mr Odinga.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.