What David Mwenje would have taught Raila Odinga about unpredictable internal polls

David Mwenje, the colourful, sadly departed, MP for Embakasi, could have told Raila Odinga something about the unpredictability of internal party elections.

Like Raila, Mwenje cut his teeth in the rough streets of Nairobi politics. He knew how to dispatch an opponent. Going into the 2002 elections, there were two likely opponents he could face on the Kanu side.

There was Irshad Sumra, a veteran local businessman and politician. And then there was Dick Waweru, former Mayor of Nairobi.

Mwenje feared a face-off with Waweru. He was a councillor, which suggested he had an extensive grassroots network in Embakasi.

What’s more, he was running on a Kanu ticket. Considering how President Moi used to crave winning seats in “opposition zones” Waweru’s Kanu links meant he would have a major financial war-chest for his campaign.

And, if the election were close, there was no stopping the ruling party from doing a “Gumo” and rigging Mwenje out.

Mwenje had a plan. Two days before the Kanu nominations were due, according to newsroom veterans, he travelled to Kandara and returned with thousands of young men to Embakasi.

NOMINATION DAY

Very early on nomination day, these youths turned up and joined other members of Mwenje’s army, Jeshi la Embakasi, in the queue behind Sumra.

Mayor Waweru had not prepared adequately for the nomination, seeing it as a walk in the park.

He was stunned by the length of Sumra’s queue. One journalist who was there remembers the protest he made to the youths standing behind his opponent, which summed up his attitude to race.

Mnapigia mhindi? (loosely translated into “how can you vote for an Indian?”). Sumra duly bagged the nomination. On election day, Mwenje easily romped to victory with the highest vote total of anyone apart from the presidential candidates.

This is not to suggest that the ODM nominations were infiltrated. Rather, it is to make the point that these contests are very unpredictable.
A realist would counsel that where possible they should be avoided.

But if one has to take part in them, one shouldn’t show his hand too openly because to do so would be to court humiliation.

Raila surely recognises he took things too far by fronting for secretary general a complete neophyte no party member had heard of.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE

It is easy for some to label the Ababu-Joho axis as working for forces outside the party. But the scale of support for them evident in Kasarani showed there was a genuine desire among party members for change.

With his eloquence and brains, Ababu Namwamba has arrived at the high table of Kenyan politics through this nomination campaign. (READ: Ababu: Why we want to take over ODM)

Hassan Joho, with the catchy ODM Fresh slogan, is another the party now has to reckon with (notice how he wears his shirt untucked at all events to underline the youthful vibrancy he wants their team to be seen as injecting into ODM).

Raila misread the signs by allowing himself to be seen as aligned against this team. It was wise of him to beat a retreat.

General Colin Powell advised George W Bush to no avail that one of the first rules of war is that you should never launch a war whose end you cannot predict or dictate.

And another cheeky Republican politician, observing the mess that was the Vietnam war, advised his country to “declare victory and leave”.
Raila should now embrace Team Fresh with enthusiasm and draw a line under this episode. While party officials matter, the key thing for him is to form a talented presidential campaign secretariat that can match the slick Jubilee machine.

He should also be careful not to be seen as Mr No, as a critic of his speech to the delegates might label him.

Unlike in the Moi days, it is no longer sufficient to be against the government of the day. A successful opposition must have a compelling alternative vision to attract a changing, younger, more affluent electorate. That will be Raila’s task as he makes one last stab at the presidency.

*****

There was a happy ending to Sumra’s political career when he was elected last year while Mwenje was ultimately felled by a man who could play rougher than he, Ferdinand “Baba Yao” Waititu.

The writer, an editor with the Sunday Nation, is a Chevening Scholar at the London School of Economics. [email protected]