Declining tourism and urgent need to reverse the sorry trend

The 2017 Human Development Index reveals that four out of 10 Kenyans of working age are unemployed.

This is the highest unemployment rate in the region, which is an irony considering that Kenya has the biggest and most developed economy around.

It sends home clearly the message that the country must redouble its efforts to create more formal and informal work opportunities.

It is useful, therefore, to hone in on which economic activities could yield the highest results or returns.

One of the prime candidates is tourism because it has a huge multiplying effect and creates many “fallout” benefits.

CREATES EMPLOYMENT

A visit to our hotels and lodges creates employment not only for those establishments themselves but for those who supply them with goods and services both formally and informally or benefit economically from the visitors when they go shopping or on visits outside the hotel.

This “fallout” or multiplier benefit means that the economic activity generated is a lot more than in many other sectors.

But if one looks at the overall trend over the past five years or so, one will see that the number of visitors to Kenya is down by a huge margin.

In 2011, Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, Nairobi, handled 1,028,648 arrivals. By this year, this figure was down to 782,013, which translates into a 24 per cent drop from the five years before.

Arrivals at Moi International Airport in Mombasa, the gateway to much of our coastal tourism, dropped from 236,662 arrivals in 2011 to some 90,972 arrivals last year.

INFRASTRUCTURE

This translates into a decline of a whopping 59 per cent. But as things stand, there is currently significant spare capacity all round the country, Nairobi included.

Where the figures are most alarming is in the coastal tourism. They are down by more than half.

When one bears in mind the hotels and supporting infrastructure that was built in the good years and which is now half idle, this is a worrying thought.

But it is useful to flip over to the other side of the coin.

That means that much of the infrastructure, including the foundation and the structures, are there.

DEMAND TRENDS

What is needed is a long hard think through in terms of the overall market and what are the key demand trends and, of course, what we need to adapt to and even add on.

If the trend is to smaller boutique units then we must, as much as possible, move in that direction.

If there is an increased demand for more self-contained units then again we must see what we can do meet that demand.

What has hit me recently is that we have some amazing gems that we often take for granted.

We must go the extra mile to conserve them and ensure that in no way whatsoever are they tampered with.

MUTUAL RESPECT

Is it really acceptable that the SGR should encroach even on one metre of the Nairobi Game Park in the name of economy or any other argument?

The same principle applies to our conservancies and migration routes.

Co-existence and mutual respect must abide. It isn’t just about tourism either.

We are fortunate to have such amazing heritages with which we have been naturally entrusted.

Last week I was in Lamu. I listened in horror to the potential damage and pollution on the marine and land environment and its population the proposed coal-fuelled power generating plant could inflict on the area.

ECONOMIC FABRIC

Lamu is a treasured gem that goes back several centuries. Its residents are very aware of that and proud of it as well. How did we ever allow even the thought of such a potential blight to be entertained?

The country and its social and economic fabric are intertwined and dependent on harmony.

When we think about the ways and means to boost the fortunes of tourism we must do it in conjunction with all the related social and economic factors.

Mr Shaw is a public policy and economic [email protected]