Election violence dampening prospects of economic growth

Kisumu residents take to the streets after Kisumu Central MP Ken Obura was named the winner in the ODM primaries on April 26, 2017. PHOTO | ONDARI OGEGA | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • The history of political violence and resulting economic damage, reached its peak in 2007/8.
  • The political climate has diverted capital and labour, from productive engagement to political campaigns.
  • A negative impact from the elections would be a double tragedy for the economy, which has suffered since last year from devastating drought.
  • Persistent conflicts between Jubilee and Nasa are also contributing to violence.

The violence that has hit the primaries of Jubilee and Nasa is sending disturbing signals that are likely to dampen economic prospects.

The political climate has diverted capital and labour, from productive engagement to political campaigns.

Perception of a looming disaster is strong enough to influence rational investors to wait and see the outcome of the elections before making commitments on how much and where to invest.

The history of political violence and resulting economic damage, reached its peak in 2007/8.

This prompted a search for peace by the government and other interested parties to lower political temperatures and safeguard economic.

In December last year, President Uhuru Kenyatta and other leaders signed a peace pledge that underlined his commitment to “free, fair, transparent and credible” elections.

SUFFERED MAJOR BLOW

The search for peace suffered the first major blow when Mr Raila Odinga, the Orange Democratic Movement leader and one of Nasa’s principals, rubbished the peace and led his troupe in boycotting the leadership summit organised by the Kenya Private Sector Alliance.

A negative impact from the elections would be a double tragedy for the economy, which has suffered since last year from devastating drought.

The latest government Economic Survey reported that although economic growth improved from 5.7 per cent in 2015 to 5.8 per cent in last year, drought undermined agriculture and caused the economy to slow down.

The World Bank latest predicts a slowdown of economic growth to 5.5 per cent this year. Violence towards the August 8 elections, will increase the economy’s vulnerability.

The economy will also suffer considerable stress from increased idling and dependency on handouts, particularly among jobless youth.

WORK TO GET MONEY

These are driven to an illusion that they don’t have to work to get money and are easily incited to violence to protect their new benefactors.

Only in a few instances do they fight because they genuinely feel their freedom of choice has been violated through rigging.

Persistent conflicts between Jubilee and Nasa are also contributing to violence.

While Jubilee has focused its campaign on the promises it has fulfilled, expanding the economy, infrastructure and creating jobs, Nasa campaigns on its perceived failures, particularly on management of public debt, corruption and public waste.

The opposition has also fuelled hostilities between the government and counties over sharing of power and resources.

WRONG PREMISES

The public attacks, sometimes based on wrong premises, cause considerable anxiety and keep foreign investors away. Violence disrupts business and causes massive losses.

In its latest survey on business confidence, Kepsa reported on Wednesday that chief executives are worried about the disruptive effect of elections that could lead to job and production losses.

There is no effective way to stymie violence and protect the economy except by calling for peaceful and credible elections to deflate the increasing political pressure.

The government, political parties, private sector and civil society need to deepen their resolve to have a good election year.

RESOLVED ELECTORAL DISPUTES

This can only be assured if all politicians commit themselves to the peace pledge and agree to resolve electoral disputes through party tribunals and the Judiciary.

Lest we forget, choices have consequences, and every cloud has a silver lining.

The choices that Kenyans make today will determine whether economic prospects will remain strong during the election period or they will have to pick up the pieces and rebuild the economy after a political mess.

When politicians sneeze, the entire country catches a flu that takes quite long to cure.

Preventive measures will be more effective in diffusing hostilities than waiting for a cure after the situation blows up.

Mr Warutere is the principal associate at MA Consulting Group. [email protected]