Elite power wars a threat to IEBC and other institutions

Chief Justice David Maraga (left) speaks with Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Chairperson Wafula Chebukati at KICC on June 13, 2017 during the National Elections Conference. The IEBC is caught in the eye of the stormy power wars. PHOTO | DENNIS ONSONGO | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • ODM has pushed for the results of the presidential election to be announced at the polling stations.
  • A poll released on May 18 by the Radio Africa Group research department placed Uhuru at 49 per cent and Raila at 40 per cent.

Defenders of democracy in Kenya must be afraid, very afraid.

Vicious elite power wars in the run-up to the 2017 General Election threaten the sanctity of Kenya’s budding democratic institutions.

Caught in the eye of the stormy power wars is Kenya’s reformed Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

CONFERENCE
While a high-pitched ideological clamour for a new constitution was the battle line in presidential contests between 1992 and 2007, the axis of elite wars has vociferously shifted to independent democratic institutions, particularly the IEBC, after the passing of the 2010 constitution.

IEBC must defend itself or perish like its predecessors – and plunge the country into uncertainty.

Laudably, the Electoral Commission’s high-profile three-day National Elections Conference on preparedness for the 2017 elections between June 12 and 14, 2017 was a creative step in this direction.

PUBLIC DEBATES
Addressed by President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition chief Raila Odinga, the meeting aimed “to rally Kenyans towards a credible and peaceful election in 2017” by allowing politicians, civil society groups and the Kenyan public to audit the state of IEBC’s preparedness.

However, the jury is still out as to whether this approach will insulate IEBC from deadly power games.

Signifying the emerging threat to the sanctity of democratic institutions are two competing arguments querulously defining debates in Kenya’s public sphere.

RESULTS ANNOUNCEMENT
One extreme is the argument, articulated by opposition stalwarts and wonks in the ODM/Nasa axis, that depicts the ruling Jubilee and the IEBC as one and the same thing.

This line has two strands. First is a shrill and largely unsupported claim that Jubilee plans to rig the 2017 election.

Flowing from this, ODM has pushed for the results of the presidential election to be announced at the polling stations.

RIGGING
However, Jubilee pundits have counter-argued that usurping the powers of IEBC, whose chairman is by law the final returning officer of the presidential election, to rectify results after counter-checking them is a ploy by the opposition to rig the election in its strongholds, particularly in Nyanza.

The second strand is that IEBC has failed to rein in Jubilee from using State resources to bolster its campaign.

Speaking during the National Elections Conference on June 13, Mr Odinga urged the IEBC to take action against the President whom he accuses of “using State resources in campaigns for his re-election”.

CAMPAIGN FUNDS
What has alarmed the opposition is that, apart from the launch of the Standard Gauge Railway, Kenyatta has committed a colossal Sh7.3 billion in various development projects, mainly in the swing areas and opposition strongholds.

On their part, Jubilee wonks insist that the opposition “has failed to mobilise sufficient funding for its campaigns”.

As such, they argue, the opposition is trying to misuse the IEBC to counter its “development as politics” strategy, which Kenyatta unveiled in January 2016 to win over the swing areas and invade the opposition bastions.

AGENCY'S CREDIBILITY
On the other extreme is the argument, articulated by Jubilee stalwarts and pundits, that the ODM/Nasa axis has hatched a “shoot-the-referee-to-end-the-game” strategy.

From the corridors of Jubilee power, the grand idea is to raise serious doubts about the integrity of the referee (IEBC) as lacking the essential integrity to conduct free, fair and credible elections.

This will lead to one policy option: Rejection of the election results, forcing a post-election power-sharing bargain along the lines of the Grand Coalition Government following the disputed December 2007 presidential election results.

INCREASING VOTES
In the Jubilee’s corridor of power, the power-sharing scenario has loomed even larger in the wake of one recent event.

On June 13, at 16.45 hours, Odinga and his running mate, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, flew to Dubai in the United Arab Emirates where they held meetings between June 13 and 14 with the opposition’s traditional financiers, mainly from the West.

Jubilee sources aver that the benefactors told the opposition’s duo point blank that Jubilee is making serious gains in their strongholds and their chances of victory in 2017 are becoming slimmer by the day.

OPINION POLLS
This rendition reflects the tally of various opinion polls and ethnographic surveys, which depict Jubilee as surging ahead.

In May 2017, Ipsos scored Uhuru 47 against Raila’s 42.

Another poll released on May 18 by the Radio Africa Group research department placed Uhuru at 49 per cent and Raila at 40 per cent.

And on June 9, 2017, the research firm, East African Index, published its forecast which showed that after his recent flurry of campaigns in battleground zones in Eastern, Western, Nyanza and Coast, Kenyatta’s score has risen to 54.8 per cent against Raila’s 42.1 per cent, with other candidates sharing 3.1 per cent.

COALITION GOVERNMENT
The opposition’s best chance is to work on a power-sharing scenario.

With this dossier, Jubilee has hit the high road. This was the conclusion.

In a campaign trail in Rift Valley counties, Kenyatta accused the opposition of trying to derail the August 8 polls to push for a “Nusu Mkate” (transitional) government.

BEYOND REPROACH

Jubilee posits that the opposition’s demand for a complete overhaul of the commissioners of the IEBC, the secretariat; the voter registration, the procurement of the Integrated Elections Management System (Kiems), including the Biometric Voter Registration (BVR), Electronic Voter Identification Device (Evid), Electronic Voter Tallying (EVT) and Electronic Result Transmission kits, the ongoing printing of ballot papers saga and the raft of debilitating court cases against the IEBC are all part of this scheme.

Be that as it may, the daggers are out as exemplified by the ongoing public brawl over the printing of the ballot papers.

IEBC Chairman Wafula Chebukati has rightly insisted that, with 53 days to the election, the commission will not cancel the tender, but faithfully implement its programme.

As the assault on democratic institutions intensifies on the road to August 8, IEBC must be as above suspicion as Caesar’s wife, but as firm as a rock.

Prof Kagwanja is the Chief Executive of Africa Policy Institute and visiting scholar at University of Nairobi’s Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies