Era of ever mutating coalitions could be with us for a long time

Jubilee Alliance Party Chairman Noah Wekesa (centre) flanked by Mukurweini MP Kabando wa Kabando, Kabete MP Ferdinand Waititu (left) and Hassan Osman (right) with other members during a press conference at JAP offices in Nairobi on April 6, 2016. PHOTO | ROBERT NGUGI | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • The latest innovation seems to be a fallback to regional parties that will control their ethnic bases and then cut power-sharing deals with any of the big coalitions that looks set to win the next election.
  • Gusii leaders led by Senator Chris Obure and lawyer Charles Nyachae have served notice they are fronting their own party to cater for Kisii and Nyamira counties.
  • The Coast region has been grappling for years with the challenge of uniting under one homegrown party, so far unsuccessfully.

The recent call from the Cord leadership for a so-called rotational presidency was not the first time the unusual idea was being broached. The earliest politician to do it was the late Elijah Mwangale of Bungoma in the mid-80s.

His theory was that every ethnic community would somehow take turns at the helm so that – in the vivid phrase he used – they each “get to taste the Presidency.”

I think Mwangale fancied himself coming next after Daniel arap Moi in the tasting. He liked to remind everybody that the Luhya were the second most populous group in the country.

Simeon Nyachae of Kisii had an equally novel proposal when he sought to run for president in 2002.

To counter the pressure to back one opposition candidate under Narc, he suggested that two elders from each community be assembled to select a joint candidate.

He knew the tyranny of numbers his main rivals could marshal if it came to open nominations put his electoral base at a disadvantage.

Mwangale’s idea was floated during the single party era, when it probably made some perverse sense.

It has been variously pointed out how it would be impractical to implement it today.

There would be too many impediments, too many unanswered questions. Who would determine the roster of rotation? Who would prevent others from jumping the queue in these days of popular democratic voting? And that’s just the beginning.

The latest innovation seems to be a fallback to regional parties that will control their ethnic bases and then cut power-sharing deals with any of the big coalitions that looks set to win the next election.

Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba has created a huge racket in western Kenya as a prelude to such a move. He is saying so openly.

Yet there is the small matter of a clutch of other competing parties in the same region he will have to somehow navigate through.

There is Musalia Mudavadi’s Amani Congress. There is Ford Kenya which, despite Moses Wetang’ula’s expansive ambitions, is essentially a Western party.

There is the tiny Labour Party, which initially Namwamba was linked to. There is the offshoot called New Ford Kenya which, alas, has just dissolved itself to join Jubilee. I believe Cyrus Jirongo has his own little outfit too.

SUB-REGIONAL PARTIES

In fact regional and sub-regional parties are hardly a new invention. They have been a staple of the multi-party era.

The ruling Jubilee coalition is itself an alliance of two regional parties – TNA of Central Kenya and URP of the Rift Valley. The coalition is now intent on swallowing up smaller outfits affiliated to it.

And URP has managed the feat of pushing the once mighty Kanu into a sub-regional corner.

A while back, Northern Kenya was talking of forming their own Pastoralist Party.

The matter was discussed but I am not sure the party has been registered yet.

Gusii leaders led by Senator Chris Obure and lawyer Charles Nyachae have served notice they are fronting their own party to cater for Kisii and Nyamira counties.

The choices on offer are the Kenya Social Congress, the PDP, and Simeon Nyachae’s former vehicle Ford-People.

Some in that caucus, however, feel they need to register an entirely new sub-regional party.

The Kuria community leader Senator Wilfred Machage says he is keen on following suit.

The Coast region has been grappling for years with the challenge of uniting under one homegrown party, so far unsuccessfully.

The many small setups that call the region home – Kaddu-Asili, Shirikisho and so on – never seem to get sufficient traction to achieve their goal.

Lately there is a new impetus to form an “indigenous” party. It is being spearheaded by the currently partyless Kilifi politician, Gideon Mung’aro.

How all this manoeuvring will end remains to be seen. Clearly, the hope of genuinely national parties has died. Every hamlet now wants its own party for a sense of political autonomy and leverage. The era of ever mutating coalitions could be with us for a long time to come.

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Most people have adjudged Ms Theresa May to be a good choice as the incoming British prime minister. Where she has been severely faulted is the choice of Boris Johnson to be foreign minister. He is a demagogue in the mould of Donald Trump.