Crafty Kabila, and how he could insinuate himself to another term

Despite myself, I have developed a sneaking regard for Congo’s Joseph Kabila.

That is notwithstanding his unspoken intention to extend his tenure in office beyond his second term, which constitutionally expires in December 2016.

Whatever the case, Kabila is doing his thing his own wily way.

Burundi’s Pierre Nkurunziza simply added a third term by fiat.

He then crudely told the world to go to hell, though he and his country might well end up there first before others do.

Paul Kagame of Rwanda opted to go through the legalistic motions of a parliamentary vote, then a referendum. In contrast, Kabila has shown some surprising cunning.

(I must add, for the record, that there is no intention on my part to compare Kagame with the likes of Nkurunziza or Kabila in any flippant way. The Rwandan leader is an extraordinary man of extraordinary achievement who had to deal with an extraordinary collective national tragedy. That tragedy scarred his small country very deeply and shaped the situation he has been pushed to. But that is a story for another day).

Still, give it to the 44-year-old Kabila: he is a sly chap, or seems to be.

Rather than bulldoze his subjects with a fait accompli, like Nkurunziza did with his controversial third term, he sought a more devious method.

KABILA'S CUNNINGNESS

Last January, he unveiled an electoral bill which guaranteed the next election to be in November 2016.

The catch was that he tied this election to having a national census carried out first.

Anybody who has been to the so-called Democratic Republic of Congo knows perfectly well that holding a census in that sprawling and chaotic place can take years to accomplish, if ever.

The infrastructure is a nightmare, the logistics impossible. Nobody knows for sure the true population. Rough estimates say 75 million.

On the face of it, Kabila had a point. You can’t possibly hold a credible election when you have no idea of the number of people in your country, and the eligible voters.

That is why the previous two elections – in 2006 and 2011 – were universally considered a sham.

Yet how come Kabila has spent all these years in power (he took office in 2001, after the death of his father Laurent) without ever seeing the need for a census, until now?

Why bring it up at the tail-end of his constitutional tenure?

The electoral bill had to be shelved – for the time being – after violent protests broke out in Kinshasa.

But that wasn’t the end of the saga.

Last month, Kabila called for a “national dialogue,” a kind of woolly talkfest involving the querulous factions in the vast country. Again, one can see the shrewd calculation behind this.

Congo has some of the most disorderly politicians in the world.

HERE TO STAY

Ironically its rhumba musicians are the runaway best on the continent.

Anyway, these politicians come in a bewildering array of belligerent parties.

A “national dialogue” would take ages to make headway. Merely agreeing on the participants would be a monumental task.

And that is before an agenda is even drafted. Everything would go in circles, and then get bogged down.

Meanwhile, the Presidential Palace would not be lacking an occupant.

Amid coup attempts and armed rebellions, Kabila has had the unusual knack of hanging on.

For years while president he was considered a stranger in Kinshasa owing to his background.

I don’t know if he eventually mastered Lingala. He grew up in Tanzania speaking Swahili.

I am willing to bet that Kabila will still be in the Presidential Palace in Kinshasa this time next year, never mind the expiry of his two terms. Whether Congo will be recognisable or in tatters is another matter.
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While everybody across the world was partying into the New Year, the unfortunate folk of Vanuatu in the Pacific and those of the Maldives in the Indian Ocean are worried stiff.

Their little islands are under real threat of being submerged as the oceans rise due to global warming.

Africans should be a worried lot too due to continued erratic rainfall, sudden and devastating floods, followed by prolonged droughts.

Don’t put too much hope that the lofty goals set at last month’s Paris climate conference will be met.