How Raila got strong in the race with help from Uhuru

Nasa presidential flagbearer Raila Odinga (left) invites his running mate Kalonzo Musyoka to address Kakamega residents at Bukhungu stadium on August 3, 2017. From a losing position only about a month ago, the opposition chief has looked fairly strong in the last lap. PHOTO | ISAAC WALE | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • But an Odinga victory would no doubt excite much more interest given his underdog status in the race.  
  • A key highlight of Mr Odinga’s campaign is the way he has put the IEBC and security agencies under sharp public scrutiny.

Until last month, a majority of international media reports on the Kenyan 2017 election were predicting an easy victory for the incumbent, President Uhuru Kenyatta.

I came across at least one report that even indicated that the widely held perception of a certain Kenyatta victory had derailed his rival Raila Odinga’s campaign fundraising efforts, with potential donors reluctant to waste their money on a losing bid.

The latest opinion polls giving Mr Odinga a massive bounce suggest that they called the election for Mr Kenyatta too early.

OPINION POLLS
For the neutrals, the most exciting part of the presidential race in recent weeks must have been watching the President constantly look over his shoulders as the opposition candidate caught up with him towards the finish line.

From a losing position only about a month ago, the opposition chief has looked fairly strong in the last lap while the President appears to be gasping for breath.

NASA INTACT
Of course, voters will on Tuesday decide who between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga crosses the line first.

But an Odinga victory would no doubt excite much more interest given his underdog status in the race.  

What did he do right? What did his much-heralded opponent do wrong?

As the Star newspaper columnist Wycliffe Muga argued last week, Mr Odinga significantly helped his cause fending off the President’s Jubilee Party’s poaching schemes and keeping his opposition coalition Nasa intact.

SUPPORT BASE

A weak opposition is every incumbent’s dream, and Mr Kenyatta certainly relished the chance to face a scattered opposition, not a united coalition.

By having Kalonzo Musyoka, his running mate, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula stick with him, the Nasa presidential candidate managed to build a support base about as big as that commanded by the President – from where he has launched a fierce battle for the swing vote.

A key highlight of Mr Odinga’s campaign this time round is the way he has put the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) and the security agencies that were in the past accused of facilitating vote rigging under sharp public scrutiny.

OBSERVERS
This early warning plan has focused world attention on the Kenyan election like no other time in history.

The strong international observer team has on it former South African president Thabo Mbeki, former US Secretary of State John Kerry and Dramani Mahama, the former Ghanaian president.

Its presence gives a measure of confidence to the public that the chances for mischief in the election have been reduced or that at least someone is watching.

CHANGE

Mr Odinga has not been solely responsible for levelling out the playing field though.

He has Mr Kenyatta to thank for running an exclusionist regime that has been accused of dishing out the bulk of resources and senior public jobs to the two ethnic communities that form Jubilee’s bedrock support.

And an undying hunger for change within a section of Kenyans.

[email protected] @otienootieno