How each of these pairs would fair against UhuRuto

Raila-Kalonzo

Theirs will not be a new ticket and so the question would be what Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka will do differently from 2013. The immediate and main concern for the ticket would be to expand the base and energise it; bring new voters on board and pull all the stops to avenge the 2013 defeat.

Familiar faces need new strategies, alliances and players, and new messages to keep the old networks alive and engaged, attract new ones and engender renewed hope for victory.

The Raila and Musyoka-led alliance is anchored by the Western, Eastern and Coast voting blocks which are under increasing attack by the governing Jubilee Alliance.

The ticket will have the lessons of 2007 and 2013 presidential elections to draw from in fashioning strategies to increase the 5,340,546 it garnered in the latter poll.

President Kenyatta won that disputed poll by 6,173,433 votes. Seventy one year-old Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka (63 in December) who are both experienced in government and on the stump, will have a lot of work to do in mobilising voter support and discrediting Jubilee’s five-year record if they are to dislodge the incumbents.

But the biggest challenge for the ticket will be building a war chest to take on Jubilee rivals who are believed to already have their resources ready and waiting. Going by the IEBC figures each ticket would need at least Sh15 billion for a six-month campaign and Sh5.2 billion specifically for a presidential run.

Kalonzo-Raila

The active and unstinting campaigning of Mr Odinga will be crucial in keeping his large support base engaged and committed should the top of the ticket belong to the younger man. An unequivocal message of support for Mr Musyoka from Mr Odinga would rally his countrywide following for the ticket, but it is difficult to see all falling in line and even Mr Odinga as enthusiastic as he would be if he were top of the ticket.

As the Cord flag bearer, Mr Musyoka would need to up his game considerably to radiate the magnetism of Mr Odinga, sharpen the coalition’s message and fire, energise and expand the base while fund-raising to keep the campaign oiled and revving over the long haul.

But the new-look Cord ticket would have to work out a formula to keep the Luhya vote in its column, keep Jubilee at bay in Ukambani and the Coast, while reaching out to other regions for support.

Mr Musyoka, a former vice-president and having served in many ministries, teaming up with a former premier, boast considerable experience in government and should be ready for work on day one if they can topple the incumbents.

As owner of the ticket, Mr Musyoka would be its main funder and fund raiser. He does not have the wherewithal to run such a campaign let alone rival his Jubilee rivals.

The Centre for Multi-Party Democracy (CMD) estimated that President Kenyatta and Mr Ruto spent more than Sh10 billion on their 2013 presidential and coalition runs.

Raila-Wetang’ula

The assumption will be that Mr Wetang’ula will keep the Luhya vote in former Western Province and former Trans Nzoia district solidly in the Cord orbit and join forces with Mr Odinga in seeking support for the coalition elsewhere. If this works, the coalition’s work will be made easier, but will be harder if it does not for Mr Odinga will have to come to his running mate’s and ticket’s rescue at the expense of vote hunting.

The carrot would be the prospect of 59-year-old Wetang’ula gunning for the presidency after Mr Odinga, which prospect is not on the horizon if Abaluhya go into the Jubilee tent.

The ticket would, however, have to overcome criticism that it is anchored in one part of the country. That would be effectively countered by pointing at Jubilee, whose principals, President Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto hail from Central and Rift Valley regions respectively, but run a government dominated by two communities.

Mr Odinga and Mr Wetang’ula have experience in government but to get there they would have to ensure massive voter registration and turn out, as well as serious degrading of Jubilee’s performance.

While both men are considered wealthy by Kenyans, they would struggle to raise money enough from their own finances to run a sustained campaign, much less worry their Jubilee counterparts.

Wetang’ula-Raila

With Mr Wetang’ula, the younger man on top of the ticket, Cord would send out a message of hope and accommodation to the youth and promise of high office to Abaluhya while the coalition would position itself as a listening partner that puts the interests of Kenya, and not individuals, first.

This might just be a game changer in the former Western Province and former Trans Nzoia district, which have come under increasing pressure from Jubilee to abandon Cord. But the ground might also change in Ukambani should Mr Kalonzo Musyoka not make the ticket and the coalition not make clear he has a big role to play in a Cord government. If a deal were struck, which would also accommodate the Coast, then, the coalition would keep its 2013 support intact and go fishing in a bid to turn some Jubilee areas into Cord enclaves.

As the leader of the ticket, Mr Wetang’ula would need Mr Odinga’s support in every material particularly because the enemy must be Jubilee or the slightest hint of discord would work to the governing coalition’s advantage of incumbency.

Mr Wetang’ula has experience in government and would be ready to govern. Mr Odinga is similarly experienced and would be a steady hand to fall back on or take over if the case so arose.

As head of the ticket, Mr Wetang’ula would have to shoulder it’s financing and fund-raising. He is personally wealthy but not on a scale that he would begin to worry Deputy President William Ruto, much less the President and, certainly not the combined ticket. Would Mr Odinga campaign as hard, raise money as readily or contribute in every way to the ticket as he would if he topped it? It is highly unlikely.

Kalonzo-Wetang’ula

Mr Musyoka will be 63 in December and Mr Wetang’ula will be 60 in September. That makes for a new ticket of peers; both experienced in government and both lawyers.

But Mr Musyoka is the better established politician and Mr Wetang’ula the better established advocate. Mr Musyoka is from the eastern part of the country and Mr Wetang’ula from the west, which makes for a balanced ticket.

On their own they would present a credible team; if backed by Mr Odinga they would present a formidable ticket. If wholly supported by Abaluhya, Kamba, Luo and Coastal peoples, before waging war in Jubilee regions, they would portend a powerhouse.

If backed by Mr Odinga and if they were to benefit from his fund raising skills, they would considerably alter the political landscape and discourse in their favour.

On their own, however, they would struggle to raise, say, Sh6 billion which Mr Mwai Kibaki and Mr Odinga are reported by CMD to have spent in the months of November and December of 2007 as they battled each other for the presidency and overall poll victory.

Wetang’ula-Kalonzo

Not much different from the scenario above. However, in this case the better established lawyer would be the top of the ticket with the better established politician as his running mate.

Again, the coalition would bank heavily on Mr Odinga throwing his considerable political weight and fund-raising clout solidly behind the duo for Cord to confidently fight Jubilee for every vote outside its Central, Mt Kenya and Rift Valley strongholds.

Raila-Mudavadi

This would be an interesting combination. Mr Mudavadi’s Abaluhya voted overwhelmingly for Mr Odinga in 2013. They are hunted by Jubilee but an Odinga and Mudavadi ticket would be expected to keep them in Cord as it would be expected that the Kamba and Coast peoples would stay on board to keep the coalition intact.

Both Mr Odinga and Mr Mudavadi are experienced politicians, with the latter the more experienced in government having been a cabinet minister since his entry in politics in 1989, at 29, to 2002 and again from 2008 to 2013 when he also served as Deputy Prime Minister under Mr Odinga.

With Mr Odinga at 71, Mr Mudavadi, who turns 56 in September, would be relied on to do the heavy lifting of government and help out with diplomacy in the topsy turvy of politics to keep the Cord sheep of state steady.

On the campaign trail a combination of Mr Odinga’s magnetism and Mr Mudavadi’s pragmatism, would pivot towards increasing Cord’s presidential vote tally. It would be possible for the two to craft a campaign akin to the 2002 Rainbow coalition that toppled Kanu from power.

Their experience in government would come in handy in evaluating and downgrading Jubilee’s performance in its five year first term. They would also be comfortable raising campaign cash.

Mudavadi-Raila

This combination could be a game changer. President Uhuru Kenyatta will be 55 in October. Mr Mudavadi will be 56 in September. The tops of the Jubilee and Cord tickets would be held by peers as to nullify the analogue-versus-digital divide of the last presidential race.

Mr Kenyatta is President and while Mr Mudavadi has not held that seat before, he has served in government longer than the President and his Deputy combined have.

With Mr Odinga as running mate, the ticket would boast the experience of government and the rough and tumble of politics as assets that would stand it in good stead to best and succeed Jubilee.

The two would also serve them well in dissecting and degrading Jubilee’s performance, especially with regard to graft and domination of government by two communities. The two would also find it easier to attack Jubilee strongholds such as parts of the Rift Valley as well as attract other regional leaders to their team.

Kalonzo-Mudavadi

With Mr Musyoka at 63 and Mr Mudavadi at 56 and with the former from eastern Kenya and the latter from western, the ticket would combine experience in government and politics, regional diversity, maturity and the promise of continuity, all at once.

Both have Coast-based networks and support which would serve them well in solidifying the vote of the region for the coalition. Mr Mudavadi has close ties with the Moi family which he would turn to bolster support for the coalition.

The support of Mr Odinga in terms of mobilising and firing the Cord base as well as fund-raising would go a long way in making the ticket a formidable force capable of upsetting the incumbents.

Mr Odinga would also introduce some steel to back up prayerful and humble Musyoka and gentlemanly and diplomacy prone Mudavadi. But he would have to do more and help fund raise for the ticket or it would be swamped and swept away by its super rich Jubilee rival.

Mudavadi-Kalonzo

The younger man would be on top of the ticket backed by a running mate seven years his senior and together boast more years of experience in government than the President and Deputy President combined have.

With Western and Eastern regions commanding the ticket, it would be expected that Mr Mudavadi would lead the vote hunt in the regions neighbouring his native Luhya counties and Mr Musyoka those neighbouring his native Ukambani.

It would be a strong and attractive ticket that would be made formidable by the support of Mr Odinga, the seasoned and battle-scarred customer to keep the Cord coalition intact and force Jubilee on the ropes.

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