IEBC boss, Uhuru, Raila and Ruto hold key to peaceful poll

Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Chairperson Wafula Chebukati addresses the media at the commission's offices in Nairobi on June 21, 2017. A referee entrusted with the delivery of a credible election should have the moral authority to call the warlords to order. PHOTO | FRANCIS NDERITU | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Botched procurement has resulted in single-sourcing of critical election technology and supplies, raising needless suspicion.
  • Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto do not have to seek re-election by making it a campaign against the Luo.

The eternal optimist in me presumes that we will have the General Election in August, a winner will be declared and sworn in, the loser will retreat to lick his wounds, and the rest of us will go back to the struggle for survival.

The pessimist in me, with the 2007-2008 melt-down still fresh in memory, must prepare for the worst.

Four men right now hold the future of Kenya in their hands.

Three are ethnic kingpins who were all in the thick of the last carnage, and seem ready to lead us down that dark path again.

The fourth is the referee, who is supposed deliver an election no one would dispute, but like his 2007 predecessor is becoming noted more for blunders.

RIVALRY
President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto rose to omnipotence within their respective communities for the roles they were presumed to have played in the last bout of post-election ethnic bloodletting.

Mr Ruto in that disputed election was a lieutenant in the forces commanded by Mr Raila Odinga that failed to dislodge President Mwai Kibaki from State House.

UhuRuto, as the Jubilee Party team is popularly called, is now trying to beat off yet another attempt by Mr Odinga to reach nirvana.

ETHNIC WARLORDS

Also in the mix are other figures in Mr Odinga’s National Super Alliance (Nasa), including his running mate from last time around, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, and Mr Kenyatta’s presumptive running-mate in his first abortive 2002 presidential bid, Mr Musalia Mudavadi.

The latter two are influential ethnic leaders in their own right, but do not command the fanatical and unquestionable following that could lead their followers into war.

If Kenyan politics is about ethnic warlords, that description would be reserved for Mr Kenyatta, Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto, who have all been implicated in past violence.

IEBC
Meanwhile, it should be clear that the surest way to forestall a potential conflagration is not stultifying peace campaigns, but a free, fair and credible election.

And that is where Mr Wafula Chebukati comes in.

The chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is a relatively fresh face, coming in with a new team of commissioners as part of a reform campaign that ejected the old tainted lot.

But since then he has failed to inspire confidence.

Botched procurement has resulted in single-sourcing of critical election technology and supplies, raising needless suspicion.

COURT OF APPEAL
It does not help that Mr Chebukati and his team of commissioners too often seem to echo the Jubilee position on anything under contestation.

It would be terrible to go into elections with a compromised process, but there should be time to make amends in the short remaining period.

The IEBC was wise not to waste further time contesting the recent Court of Appeal ruling upholding the sanctity of the vote count from polling station.

However, there is still a pending court challenge filed by the opposition over the ballot paper printing tender.

BALLOT STUFFING
Mr Chebukati, if he were a trusted honest broker, would just call a roundtable conference of all the parties and seek a resolution to the matter.

If it is too late to cancel the tender without forcing a postponement of the elections, perhaps Nasa can be persuaded to withdraw the court case if there are iron-clad assurances that there will be no extra ballot papers.

And in any case election rigging these days is not so much about the old-fashioned stuffing of the ballot boxes, but about tampering with the vote count during the transmission and tallying of votes.

TRIBALISTIC CAMPAIGN
The other issue is the threats and ethnic mobilisation that is so rampant on the election campaign platform.

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto do not have to seek re-election by making it a campaign against the Luo.

Neither does Mr Odinga have to seek office by running an anti-Kikuyu campaign.

It is from that kind of rhetoric that mindless mobs on both sides will seek to out the enemy.

CHEBUKATI'S ROLE
A referee entrusted with the delivery of a credible election should have the moral authority to call the warlords to order.

He can assuage the fears of those who are worried that the election might be stolen, and he can put their place those who might assume they are above the law.

Mr Chebukati right now should be calling the shots, and having Mr Kenyatta, Mr Odinga, Mr Ruto and all the other players obeying his whistle.

Email: [email protected] Twitter: @MachariaGaitho