If Uhuru and Ruto run for president Kenya wins; if they don’t, Kenya wins

After the International Criminal Criminal ruled that four of the “Ocampo Six” should stand trial for crimes against humanity, there have been calls that Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and former minister William Ruto should abandon their presidential bids.

Uhuru and Ruto say they are in the race, and have ramped up their campaigning, appearing jointly at rallies together again after a period in which it seemed they were heading different ways.

When one looks at this calmly, if Uhuru and Ruto quit their quest for the presidency, Kenya wins. Equally, if they got on the ballot, Kenya wins too.

The question then is how does Kenya – and indeed East Africa – benefit from a Uhuru and Ruto candidacy?

First, it has to do with a tendency one notices, especially over the last five years. The country is no longer willing to accept decisions made by one man or a few big men and women, even if they are good decisions.

When President Kibaki picked Prof Githu Muigai as the new Attorney-General, a section of the country erupted in outrage. When he backed down and allowed a more consultative process involving Prime Minister Raila Odinga and later public interviews by a parliamentary committee. There was no protest.

The horrific post-election violence following the disputed December 2007 elections happened partly because of the closed way the Electoral Commission of Kenya was appointed. The interim electoral commission appointed thereafter, and the now substantive Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, were picked very transparently and are viewed as being more representative of the political and social forces.

Partly as a result, there has been no controversy over the by-elections and the August 2010 referendum vote it organised. If the IEBC helped a candidate steal an election today, it is far more likely to get away with it because it has high credibility.

Similarly, while the outcome of the 2005 Constitution referendum vote shook Kenya, it is easy to forget that there was a referendum two years ago.

For that reason, those who think Uhuru and Ruto are not worthy of the presidency should leave the messy work of dealing with them to the public via the vote if they want to settle the matter once and for all.

If either of them wins, then Kenya will have said it is not yet a country where politicians facing crimes against humanity in an international court are not good enough to seek the presidency. Or, perhaps, that they don’t have faith in the ICC process.

If they lose, then the question will have been settled permanently. No one facing charges at the ICC will ever seek office.

At a regional level, it will also sort out the matter of indicted Sudanese strongman Omar al-Bashir. Since Bashir will still be in power after the Kenya election, if the ICC is clearly an issue on which Kenyan voters indicate they care about, then Bashir will never be invited to Kenya by a future government.

It will also settle the question of whether or not the ICC is an “imperialist and racist” court that mostly targets Africans, as the African Union and other critics believe. Only the Kenyan voters in the continent have an opportunity to speak out on that matter for the African man and woman on the street.

It is also amusing to see the supporters of the other presidential aspirants calling for Uhuru and Ruto to quit their quest for State House. The two are both strong-willed men, and they are less likely to give up their presidential aspirations in the face of demands that they do, than if they were not pressured.

For the other presidential candidates, there would be nothing better than for Uhuru and Ruto to run, because then all they have to say during the campaigns is “why elect someone who might have to spend a lot of his time as president at The Hague instead of running the country?” or one who could well “be found guilty and sent to prison shortly after being elected president?”

Also, if they don’t run, then the next president would have to forever endure jibes about how he or she would ‘‘not have won if Uhuru and Ruto had run’’.

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