It is time to get serious with Lapsset

The announcement that Uganda will build its crude oil pipeline through Tanzania to Tanga rather than Kenya has muddied the perception that the latter is a key economic hub in the region.

Tanzania’s energetic new president and stellar growth rates make it a more attractive prospect for moving goods and basing operations than Kenya.

The Lamu Port Southern Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor (Lapsset) presents an incredible opportunity for Kenya, a chance to reaffirm its political and economic strategic importance to the region and the continent.

Furthermore, it can add a new pillar to a lopsided economy and reverse the marginalisation that has fuelled poverty and insecurity in northern Kenya. The Hoima-Tanga pipeline decision should be a clarion call for Kenya that it is time to get serious about Lapsset.

For over a century, the focus and bedrock of the Kenyan economy has been the Northern Corridor — a collection of infrastructure and economic activity stretching from Mombasa through Nairobi to Kisumu and on to the wider region.

This has effectively put all of Kenya’s economic eggs in one basket and the rest of the country, particularly northern Kenya, has suffered for it. By shifting its focus to Lapsset, the government’s development drive would move decisively to reverse decades of marginalisation.

This would bear a bevy of benefits. First, it would provide much needed employment and development to a region stretching from Kenya’s northern borders to its coast. Not only would this improve lives, it would be a significant economic stimulus and, in the long run, like the Northern Corridor, would provide a second significant driver of growth to the economy.

Second, development in marginalised regions would temper a major plank of insecurity — Kenya’s north is notorious for banditry and cattle rustling and is a fertile recruiting ground for Al-Shabaab. Lack of opportunities is at the heart of this. The opportunities that Lapsset would provide could reverse this trend.

The Northern Corridor has made Kenya the anchor of the East and Central African economy. Lapsset would do the same for the Horn of Africa, namely Somalia, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, providing a secure outlet for trade.

Lapsset would also have global implications owing to the fact that the Horn of Africa has been a hotspot of instability, piracy, and terrorism over the past two decades.

ECONOMIC PROSPERITY

Lapsset can provide the bedrock of economic prosperity and opportunity as well as improve access to the various aid and peacekeeping missions operating in the region.

For Kenya, the long-term prospect of peace in the north as well as being a strategic linchpin for the Horn of Africa would provide a foundation of economic growth and development.

Since its inauguration, Lapsset has experienced false starts and endured slow progress. The project also seems to have been deprioritised under the Jubilee government as the focus shifted elsewhere (namely the standard gauge railway and the 5,000MW power programme), and while the Kenyatta administration says it still supports the project, it lacks significant financial backing either from external sources or the government.

To make Lapsset a reality, the government must commit fully to the project, first by de-risking it through securing the necessary land and second, by deploying resources to engage and attract investors. The government can also give the core infrastructure projects (the initial port berths, high voltage transmission lines, and key link roads) adequate budgetary support to kick-start the project.

Lapsset has the potential to be a game changer for Kenya and the region, providing significant economic opportunities and jobs in the short term and forming the bedrock of peace and prosperity in the long term.

It would make Kenya Africa’s premier hub, offering access to markets stretching from Addis Ababa to Dar es Salaam and ensuring that Kenya remains a must-go destination for investment.

Without doubt, it is a hugely expensive project and its implementation would face a number of challenges. However, without a radical change, Kenya’s north will continue to struggle, the country’s economy will remain precariously perched on the single pillar of the Northern Corridor, and the Horn of Africa will be a persistent headache for policy makers around the world. It would cost more to let Lapsset die than it would to implement it.

Mr Ngumi is an associate consultant at africapractice East Africa. [email protected].