Jubilee Party should be worried if Nasa breaks up

Jubilee is rightly fretting about a united Opposition. But a crumbled National Super Alliance (Nasa) could be just as dangerous. 

Undoubtedly, as opposition leaders converge at the Coast in yet another frenetic effort to agree on a single presidential candidate in the August 8 General Election, the future of the opposition alliance hangs in the balance.

Even as reports indicate that Nasa’s flagbearer was to be named by December 25 last year, deep suspicions and political mistrust have hampered efforts to rally behind a presidential candidate.

In recent weeks, power tussles over who should bear Nasa’s presidential flag have increasingly become public and palpable, undermining a political formation that was originally crafted to mirror the “National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) Revolution” that swept Kanu out of power in December 2002.

Political jostling within the Nasa axis reveals an alliance deeply mired in an existential crisis. The big question is whether its principals will hang together or hang separately in the August polls.  

However, Nasa’s existential crisis throws up four main scenarios, which should make the ruling Jubilee Party afraid, very afraid.

The Narc scenario

The first is the “Narc scenario”. If Nasa holds together after a unity meeting slated for April 17 to 19, this will bring the alliance closer to the “Narc Revolution” that ended nearly four decades of Kanu’s monopoly over power and swept the then opposition leader, Mwai Kibaki, to the helm in the historic December 2002 election.

If Nasa holds together and the proverbial white smoke appears on April 19 either Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Raila Odinga (ODM), Musalia Mudavadi (ANC) or Moses Wetang’ula (Ford-Kenya) will be declared the presidential candidate to face President Uhuru Kenyatta in August.

All things being equal, this scenario has the potential of pushing the August election to a run-off – where both Jubilee and Nasa would have a 50-50 chance of winning.

NASA QUARTET

But even if the Nasa quartet holds together, four months to the election, one vital political ingredient that enabled Narc to ascend to power is visibly lacking: A major split within the ruling party to tilt the demographic balance in favour of the opposition.

Indeed, a string of defections from Nasa to the Jubilee Party and Kanu’s – and the Moi dynasty’s – recent decision to throw its lot behind the ruling formation have nipped the prospects of a seismic political fallout within Jubilee, which could set off a “Nasa Revolution.”

As such, Nasa’s existential crisis of vision and leadership makes this scenario a most unlikely one. 

The 2007 scenario
The second is “the 2007 scenario” when ODM broke up into two rival formations ahead of the 2007 election. If Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka leaves Nasa to either launch his own separate presidential campaign as Wiper candidate, join another coalition or retire from politics, he will leave Odinga and Mudavadi at the helm of the Alliance as in 2007.

This scenario has loomed even larger in the wake of rumours that the Wiper leader will exit Nasa if he is not named flagbearer.

On April 5, 2017, the National Assembly Minority Leader and Kalonzo’s close ally Francis Nyenze stoked controversy when he declared “It is Kalonzo or no Nasa”, adding that if the Wiper leader is denied the ticket, the Alliance will be doomed.

Kalonzo has called on Raila to honour a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that they reportedly signed stipulating that Odinga would be the presidential candidate in the 2013 General Election while Kalonzo would be the flagbearer in the 2017 race to State House.

CHIEF MINISTER
In early April, following reports that Nasa’s 12-man technical team had settled on Raila as the presidential candidate for the opposition alliance with Kalonzo as his running mate and Mudavadi as “chief minister”, the Wiper leader insisted that the choice of Nasa’s flagbearer rests with the principals, not the technical team.

Kalonzo’s exit would signal the demise of Nasa as a formidable formation. It would also stem the Narc-like euphoria that Nasa strategists hoped would sweep the alliance to power during the August polls.
The doomsday scenario:

The third is “the doomsday scenario” which would occur if Nasa collapses after April 19.  Had Cord not withered away, it would have been the default recourse in the event that Nasa collapsed. Without Cord, constituent parties would be forced to field separate candidates at all levels.

The dramatic return of ODM into the political scene from last month seems to indicate that Raila is prepared to go it alone if he is not declared the bearer of Nasa’s presidential flag.

NOMINATION EVENT

This week, the ODM chief presided over a nomination event at the Bomas of Kenya where more than 850 aspirants at all levels were handed direct nomination certificates to face Jubilee in the coming polls.

Wiper has also followed suit, giving direct nominations to its own candidates. Obviously, Nasa’s doomsday scenario will be the best-case scenario for Jubilee power.

The piranha scenario

However, the fourth scenario – Nasa’s “piranha strategy” or “Ivorian scenario” – should deeply worry Jubilee stalwarts.

When Nasa was formed, its original vision was of a post-election coalition to deny Jubilee a first-round victory. Failure to agree on a single presidential candidate during Nasa’s April meeting might revive this vision, giving rise to the “piranha scenario” as the worst-case scenario for Jubilee power.

Under this scenario, opposition leaders might agree to fight the election individually using Nasa’s constituent parties. The endgame is locking out Jubilee from their regional tuffs. Notably, this is not the first time Kenya’s political class is resorting to the “piranha strategy” after failing to unite. In 1997, the then opposition chiefs – Mwai Kibaki, Michael Kijana Wamalwa, Raila Odinga, Martin Shikuku among others – mobilised their ethnic-based parties to effectively shut Daniel Moi out of their regions, reducing the incumbent’s victory margin to a 34 per cent.  

RETAIN POWER

While the first-past-the-post system enabled Moi to retain power, under the current Constitution, this would automatically lead to a run-off. 

The “piranha scenario” also finds expression in the 2011 election in Côte d’Ivoire where small opposition parties denied the government a first-round victory and then circled wagons against the ruling party in a run-off alliance.

If Nasa crumbles, Jubilee will have to win a first-round victory or face a run-off.

Prof Kagwanja is the Chief Executive of Africa Policy Institute