If Jubilee has a plan for Kenya, then it’s lost in fight to beat ICC demons

Last week, Sir Lawrence Freedman — a vice-principal at King’s College, London — gave a public lecture at the African Leadership Centre on Strategy: The Art of Power. His latest book titled Strategy: A History is fresh off the print at Oxford University Press.

His lecture was not on Kenya but it spoke to the current conjuncture in our politics. He argued that strategy differs from plan; that strategy is never the magic ingredient needed to achieve a specific end.

Citing Mike Tyson’s statement that “everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”, Prof Freedman demonstrated the complexity of the idea of strategy noting that we deal daily with wilful opponents who challenge the certainty plans imply.

Strategy, he argued, involves ensuring that the process of making power is as applicable as possible. Creativity and interdependent decision-making is important to strategy. The best strategy involves coalition-building. He concluded that a good strategy must focus on the starting point, not the end point.

VALUE OF COALITIONS

How do Prof Freedman’s thoughts speak to the current conjuncture in Kenyan politics? First, it confirms the value of coalitions. We have a new coalition government. Its strategy for winning elections bears out the argument that a good strategy involves coalition-building and empathy. Jubilee was successful in building an effective coalition to win elections.

It has also marshalled empathy as the glue that cements its continued survival. This is why Jubilee broadcasts a victim narrative casting indictees as victims of the ICC at the expense of the victims of the post-election violence.

But has Jubilee been successful in strategising for governing the country? It seems that Jubilee has a plan for fighting the ICC that has rendered national governance a prisoner of personalised anti-ICC interests. Its governance style is therefore not about Kenyan citizens but how its engagements will facilitate the battle against the ICC.

The timing of the resettlement of victims of post-election violence is part of the plan to engage the ICC process. The violence took place in 2007/2008. In spite of the fact that the current President was a senior minister in the previous government, no convincing action was taken to sort out the IDPs.

Last week, the President was out sorting this problem. But his action implicitly told the IDPs to forget that little problem of post- election violence and move on. More revealingly, the focus has been on IDPs whose visibility speaks very directly to the ICC case. Bad luck if you are an IDP from western Kenya.

Second is the support of the African Union that illustrates Jubilee’s mischievous plan. The AU has fronted the dubious argument that the ICC process is humiliating Kenyans and their popularly elected President.

TOTAL CONTRADICTION

But the AU is a total contradiction; it is a Union of Heads of State, not a people’s union. The Heads of State who speak loudest against imperialism provide easier visa entry requirements to Europeans than African citizens. What a contradiction?

Finally, is the despicable attempt of Kenyan legislators to bully the ICC. This Legislature has dedicated inordinate time on nationalising the personal problem of two indictees. But Jubilee lacks a super majority to ensure its legislative agenda works flawlessly. Worse, Jubilee legislators are loose canons, often making statements that endanger indictees.

Jubilee should be aware that there are wilful actors on the ICC side whose first duty would be to hold onto any statements that indicate hostility to the court. This would be useful ammunition in this case since the line between cooperation with the court or lack of it is constantly being negotiated.

In a nutshell, if Jubilee has a strategy for governing Kenya, this is being diluted by the fact that it prioritises a particular outcome; that of ending or winning the ICC case. Everything is done in the name of saving The Hague two.

At every turn, this end point has influenced the style, demeanour and actions of government. If the coalition gets punched in the month, their plan will blow to smithereens.

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