Jubilee juggernaut may stifle reforms in name of development

It is without doubt one of the most momentous events in the geo-political history of Kenya.

Not since the return to multiparty democracy has the country witnessed such massive and voluntary dissolution of political parties to pave way for the creation of Jubilee Party.

Like it or not, the move is certainly a masterstroke on the part of the ruling coalition in general and an internal political coup for President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto.

Of even more significance is the fact that the emerging Jubilee Party has, in both name and actions, signalled its intention to shift the country’s political direction from the politics of reforms and democracy to that of development and national unity.

In a sense, the new party’s orientation seems to mirror that of Kenya’s first ruling party, the Kenya African National Union (Kanu), that dominated the country’s politics for close to half a century.

It is a notable departure from the breaking and mutation of parties that has characterised the Kenyan political scene since the return to multiparty democracy in 1991.

For President Kenyatta, today’s events are perhaps a replay of 1964 when his father and founding President Mzee Jomo Kenyatta engineered the first political party coup that saw the voluntary dissolution of the first independent opposition party, the Kenya African Democratic Union (Kadu) and its crossing of the floor of Parliament to the government side effectively making Kenya a defacto one-party state.

It was that move that set Kenya on the road to a one-party dictatorship that Kanu became after the failed coup of 1982 against President Moi.

What followed was ruthless intimidation, persecution and expulsion of non-conformist politicians and party members that pushed the country to the brink and finally led to the determined push that restored the political pluralism that Kenya enjoys today.

With the return to multipartyism, came the era of reform and democracy that have dominated the politics of opposition in the country to date.

It is on this politics that the current opposition alliance is anchored both in name and deed.

It is also on that basis that critics of the emerging Jubilee party have expressed fears that the new outfit could be out to kill multi-party democracy, scuttle reforms and encourage dictatorship and corruption that have become a way of life in Kenya in recent years.

WORK AHEAD

The opposition has accused proponents of the merger of splashing massive resources from questionable sources.

It is this newly found agenda of development and national unity that is likely to be keenly watched in the coming years as Jubilee sets its eyes on retaining power under President Kenyatta and stretching its hold on the presidency in 2022 to 2032 through Mr Ruto.

With both the President and his deputy frequently accused by the opposition of abetting or not doing enough to fight corruption, will the reform agenda collapse under the weight of the new political outfit in the event it retains power?

That is the question that is likely to dominate political and governance discourse in the days ahead.

Central to this will be the usual criticism of the lack of will and commitment by the President in his approach to the fight against graft in the high echelons of government.

Focus will also be on how the new outfit will approach the issue of institutional reforms such as the reconstitution of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission as well as reforms in the management of State corporations where critics have pointed to massive misappropriation of funds under management of politically appointed board leadership.

There is also the matter of filling the position of chair of the anti-corruption commission to jumpstart the stalled war on graft.

Then there is the ongoing search for the next Chief Justice to head the judicial system which under Dr Willy Mutunga largely checked an Executive intent on rolling back constitutional gains.

Reforms in the Judiciary have been viewed by many reformists as the surest way of dealing with rampant institutional corruption that ranks top among the ills bedevilling the country and undermining effective and efficient service delivery.

Also to come in sharp focus, will be touchy issue of inducing defections to Jubilee’s bosom through the dangling of development promises similar to the situation that obtained after the first and second multiparty elections in 1992 and 1997 when the post-election periods were largely characterised by defections of opposition MPs to Kanu on the promise of more development in their areas.

All these of course may come at the expense of constitutional implementation.

It should be noted that Jubilee has been unable to bring many of the benefits the Constitution guaranteed disadvantaged groups like women.

As to whether the Jubilee train will hold on the rails after 2017 and 2022 transition from Kenyatta to Ruto, only time will tell.

Mr Musebe is a veteran journalist and political analyst