Jubilee politics in light of relationship with Kanu

The Jubilee nominations have further clarified the country’s political landscape, enabling an informed projection of what might happen in the elections in August and beyond.

After an agreement that turned the Jubilee coalition into a political party, absorbing a number of smaller parties along the way, a crucial moment came when the new Jubilee party needed to decide on its relationship with the former ruling party, Kanu.

At the time, it appeared that the former ruling party would cast its lot with the opposition, Cord, with which it had been in flirtation, especially since upon merger Jubilee had made it clear that it would approach the next elections as a unitary entity and would not enter into a coalition with other parties.

When Kanu finally announced that it would support Jubilee in the next elections, a decision that was preceded by a highly symbolic visit to retired President Moi’s Kabarak home by Mama Ngina Kenyatta, the mother of current President, Uhuru Kenyatta, and widow of first president, Jomo Kenyatta, this was interpreted as a private deal between Kenyatta and Moi families, calculated to ensure support for Gideon Moi to succeed Kenyatta in 2022.

FIERCE RIVALRY

Up to that point, the relationship between the Moi family and Ruto had been poor, characterised by fierce rivalry over the control of the Rift Valley.

In the circumstances, the Jubilee/Kanu deal was seen as an act of political humiliation against Ruto and a sign that President Kenyatta had no confidence in the ability of his deputy to deliver the Rift Valley vote in 2017.

The prognosis was that as a result of Kanu’s new-found relationship with Jubilee, Ruto was now expendable and Kenyatta would almost certainly abandon him after the 2017 elections.

In the short period that Kanu and Jubilee have been working together, it is interesting to review the effect this relationship has had on Jubilee politics.

Whereas, before the Kanu announcement, there had been an open war in the Rift Valley between Ruto and Moi, this has all since died down.

RENDERED SUPERFLOUS

As the Ruto/Moi war was about the control of the Rift valley vote, this has been rendered superfluous since the two are both working to maintain the Rift Valley in Jubilee.

Although the terms on which Kanu agreed to work with Jubilee were private between the Kenyatta and Moi families and did not involve Ruto, the deputy president has been a direct beneficiary.

To begin with, as a co-principal in Jubilee, the Kenyatta/Moi relationship has, in a circuitous manner, relegated Gideon Moi from the position of a direct Ruto rival, to the less admirable position of a Ruto follower.

Even though Moi claims he is working only with Kenyatta, he is also forced to work with, and for, Ruto in the nature of the Kenyatta/Ruto relationship.

POLITICAL ACTOR

Secondly, while the Kenyatta/ Moi deal was meant to secure the Rift Valley vote for Kenyatta, it has also made the Rift Valley safe for Ruto, who no longer has to fear that the region might slip away from his control, as was the case before the deal.

Thirdly, the Jubilee/Kanu coalition has marred Gideon Moi’s distinctiveness as a political actor.

While he risked everything by coming out to fight Ruto’s control over the Rift Valley vote, the young Moi also stood a chance to gain everything if his fight ever succeeded.

While in his new position as a collaborator with Jubilee Moi is no longer exposed to those risks, he has also now relegated himself from a political principal to a secondary actor. This has implications for what will happen in 2022.

ABANDON RUTO

If Kenyatta’s true ambition was to abandon Ruto and work with Moi for 2022, this will now not be easy.

Irrespective of whether Jubilee wins in 2017 or not, the Rift Valley is likely to emerge from the elections with Ruto as the undisputed interlocutor for the region.

If Jubilee wins in 2017, Ruto will retain his positon as deputy president.

In those circumstances, there can be no realistic deal-making with the Rift Valley that would exclude Ruto from the table.

On the other hand, Moi will emerge from the elections holding nothing that would compel his invitation to table, especially with Ruto already at the table.

SUCCESSION PLAN

If Mama Ngina and Moi agreed on a dynastic succession plan involving their two families, this has now evaporated.

It is unlikely now that Gideon Moi will ever find a chance to launch a bid to succeed Uhuru Kenyatta.

The Kenyatta/Moi deal has not been without consequences in the recent Jubilee nominations.

Freed from the cares of Rift Valley politics, Ruto has also been liberated from the image of a provincial player and is now firmly established as a national actor.

In his liberated situation, Ruto has run waves during the Jubilee nominations and his hand is alleged in the many complaints about unfairness in the party’s nomination process.

KENNETH'S FAILURE

Having conquered the Rift Valley, Ruto’s hand has been evident in Jubilee’s politics in the city and in central Kenya, including in the resounding failure by Peter Kenneth to capture the Jubilee ticket for Nairobi governor.

Kenneth’s failure means that central Kenya will approach 2022 without a clear leader, at a time when the Rift Valley will be consolidated under Ruto.

Just like the senior Moi did for 24 years, it will be easy for Ruto to play central Kenya politicians against one another, and the rest of the country against central Kenya.

Although Kenyatta and Ruto are together in Jubilee, the idea of a Ruto presidency still invites significant resistance in central Kenya.

While the commonly-held view was that central Kenya would only decide its political direction for 2022 after the 2017 election, things have shaped in such a way that a Jubilee win now almost certainly means that central Kenya will be stuck with Ruto for 2022.

The new question seems to be whether central Kenya is sufficiently uncomfortable with a Ruto presidency as to abandon Kenyatta in 2017, since the two elections have now merged.

[email protected]