Kenneth implodes in Nairobi, and ‘Undecided’ shines in Kilifi

Nairobi gubernatorial candidates from left: Mr Mike Sonko (Jubilee), Dr Evans Kidero (ODM) and Peter Kenneth (Independent). PHOTOS | NATION MEDIA GROUP

What you need to know:

  • Large number of undecided voters, 29 per cent at the beginning of the month is now up to 33 per cent.
  • ‘Undecided’ takes second place is Kilifi County for all three contests for Governor, Senate and Woman Representative.

The Tifa Opinion poll on Nairobi and Kilifi counties has some pretty interesting findings beyond the basic numbers on preferred candidates for Governor, Senator and Woman Representatives to the National Assembly.

In Nairobi for instance, the most intriguing finding might not confirmation of the virtual dead-heat between incumbent Evans Kidero of ODM and Jubilee challenger Mike Sonko; but the implosion of Independent candidate Peter Kenneth’s prospects.

When he first signaled that he was coming out of self-imposed political hibernation to run for Nairobi Governor, the well-regarded ex-MP for Gatanga and 2013 presidential candidate was ranking pretty well in the polls.

NOMINATION

A TIFA polls in February, well before he confirmed his candidacy, had Mr Kenneth tied with Mr Sonko at about 20 per cent of the vote each, with Dr Kidero, already assured of the ODM nomination, comfortably ahead at 46 per cent.

Mr Kenneth looked like he would give Mr Sonko a real run for his money in the race for the Jubilee ticket, especially after securing endorsement of the powerful Kikuyu power brokers in Nairobi and their kith in neighbouring central Kenya counties of Murang'a and Kiambu.

The impression was also created that he had the support of President Uhuru Kenyatta and that his bid for governor was a precursor to his entry as the preferred central presidential candidate in 2022.

When the populist and unconventional Sonko crush him at the Jubilee nominations, Mr Kenneth cried foul and re-entered the race as an Independent candidate.

SECURE VICTORY

The assumption was that he would present a credible third-party challenge to the Kidero-Sonko duel; siphoning a large number of the central Kenya Jubilee vote from the official party candidate, and also the middle-class vote from both Jubilee and Nasa that last time handed Dr Kidero victory but now was disenchanted with his underwhelming record.

If the TIFA poll is to be believed, Mr Kenneth has stagnated and stuck to 4 per cent of the vote as Nairobi narrows down to a two-horse race between Dr Kidero and Mr Sonko. Mr Kenneth has, not surprisingly, dismissed the poll as fake, insisting that he is well-place to secure victory on August 8.

Then there is the Senatorial race where nominated MP Johnson Sakaja of Jubilee maintains a healthy lead at 40 per cent, up one point from July 2, while Edwin Sifuna of ODM slips down four per cent.

The story here is in the large number of undecided voters, 29 per cent at the beginning of the month, and now up to 33 per cent.

CONTESTS

‘Undecided’ is the runner-up at the moment, but where that large pool goes will determine the outcome come August 8.

Also of interest where ‘Undecided’ takes second place is Kilifi County for all three contests for Governor, Senate and Woman Representative.

Governor Amason Kingi ODM seems set to retain his seat with 51 per cent of the vote, as his nearest challenger Gideon Mungaro of Jubilee trails in third place with 16 per cent, behind ‘Undecided’ at 18 per cent. Next up is former Cabinet Secretary Kazungu Kambi of Kadu Asili at 15 per cent, whose main impact might be in taking away about half of the Jubilee vote from the party candidate.

In the race for Senate, Mr Stewart Madzayo of ODM leads with 41 per cent, well ahead of his nearest challengers Mr Lucas Maitha of Kadu Asili at 12 per cent and Mr Ken Nyale of Jubilee at 10 per cent.

But both trail ‘Undecided’ lying second at an impressive 33 per cent.

A similar scenario is even more stark in the contest for County Woman Representative to the National Assembly, where ‘Undecided’ tops the poll with 34 per cent of the vote, followed by Ms Getrude Mbeyu of ODM at 31 per cent and Ms Amina Mnyazi of Jubilee at 23 per cent.