Kenya can’t get a nuclear power plant before 2030

Recently, there have been calls to add nuclear power to Kenya’s energy mix. These calls are justified, taking into consideration that the country is aiming at becoming a newly-industrialised country in the next two decades.

Also, the main form of electricity generation, which is hydro, is under threat due to shrinking volumes of water levels caused by frequent droughts. By 2030, Kenya should be targeting at least 7000MW of electricity in order to keep alive the hopes of claiming a new and respectful status in terms of industrialisation. The target here is more than 500 per cent of the current generation capacity.

Currently, the electricity generation is about 1200MW, most of it coming from hydro and geothermal sources. Wind and coal are also in the energy mix. These sources will remain vital, but they can’t cope with the demand in the long-term. As a result, the country should be looking for more reliable and sustainable sources of energy. Nuclear energy is capable of filling this gap.

There is hardly any developed country without nuclear power in its grid. Sixteen of them have more than a quarter of their electricity supplied by nuclear power plants. All trends indicate that nuclear power is inevitable. But is Kenya ready to construct and operate a nuclear power plant now?

The answer is a flat no. Does the country, in the mid-term, have the potential to embark on nuclear power generation activities? I vote yes. There have been ad hoc calls for nuclear power in the grid in the next 10 years. But this time-frame is practically impossible for two reasons.

First, these statements are purely opinions with no technical backing, and second, it is an enormous task to put together infrastructure to support the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant. For one, the country is starting on a clean slate.

Other than being a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the country has no law or regulations on the utilisation of nuclear material to generate electricity. There is no nuclear programme in place, no research reactor in operation, and the technical capability is non-existent.

The first step, then, would be to establish a nuclear power programme. This will involve enacting a law in Parliament, which will form the basis for developing a legal and regulatory framework, covering all aspects of nuclear material.

It will also require developing technical expertise and human resources that will ensure nuclear material is solely used for secure generation of power. In the current political environment, two years could easily elapse before such a law is enacted.

After Parliament enacts the legislation, a nuclear regulatory body is formed under the Act. This body is charged with all regulatory aspects that ensure safety and security in all nuclear-related activities, which include plant siting, construction, commissioning, operation and decommissioning.

Members of this body will need to be competent and independent if the nuclear programme is to earn credibility. A typical such body will initially require close to 50 persons with specialised training and qualifications in various areas. To find the right personnel will be a challenge, and may take another two years.

After such a body has been established, with the help of IAEA, regulations to govern nuclear activities will be put in place. This will consume another three years. In essence, if Kenya committed itself to starting a nuclear power programme by 2011, a legal framework to start preparation work could be realised by 2020.

The next step is to issue three licences — to prepare the site, to construct, and to operate a nuclear power reactor. Each of the three licences is issued after the regulatory body is satisfied with the preceding stages. A typical duration between the licence to prepare site and licence to start construction is five years.

It may take Kenya a lot more than that — maybe seven to eight years due to the complexity of the process, combined with the fact that this will be the first nuclear facility. Going by the time-lines above, a licence to construct would be issued in 2027.

Construction of a nuclear power plant takes at least five years. Therefore Kenya could have the earliest nuclear generated electricity in the grid not earlier than 2032.

Dr Kariuki is a technical engineer in nuclear reactor safety at a Canadian power generating firm. (gitahi.kariuki@gmail.com).